Patriots vs Dolphins Predictions | Best Bets & Odds

Posted: Aug 10, 2022Last updated: Sep 7, 2022

For the third year in a row, the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins will clash in Week 1.

Both sides of this AFC East rivalry matchup feature young quarterbacks with something to prove. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is hoping to build on a strong rookie campaign for New England, while Dolphins signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa is looking to show once and for all that he’s a franchise quarterback in Year 3.

Which team will start their season off with a victory? Let’s dive in with our Patriots vs Dolphins predictions and best bets.

Patriots vs Dolphins Odds

Home teams are typically favored by a field goal, so it’s not surprising to see Miami favored by 2.5 points here. New England is a slight underdog on the moneyline, as well, while the total is fairly low at 44.5.

The Patriots finished only one game ahead of the Dolphins in the standings last year and are poised for another close matchup.

Take a look at the best Patriots odds and Dolphins odds for the 2022 NFL season.

Patriots vs Dolphins Implied Score

Dolphins 25, Patriots 21.5

The books are predicting a tight, low-scoring game, which checks out. Miami beat New England 17-16 in last year’s season opener, so we could see a similar score here, as well.

Patriots vs Dolphins Pick of the Day

Read more on this Patriots vs Dolphins bet below.

Patriots vs Dolphins Matchup

These two teams are evenly matched with similar strengths and weaknesses. Both have young, accurate quarterbacks and strong rushing attacks on offense backed up by formidable defenses.

One major difference, of course, is on the sidelines. The Patriots still answer to the legendary Bill Belichick, who’s guided the team to six Super Bowl titles since taking over in 2000. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have a first-year head coach in Mike McDaniel, who’s a whopping 31 years younger than Belichick.

This will be McDaniel’s first time calling a game by himself, and he’ll have to do it against arguably the greatest coach in the history of the sport.

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction

Dolphins 21, Patriots 17

While the Patriots still have Belichick at the wheel, there are a couple of things working against the visitors from New England here.

For one, they’ve traditionally been slow starters under Belichick, who often uses September as an extended preseason. That will likely hold true this year as the offense adjusts to life without longtime OC Josh McDaniels.

The Dolphins have also been a constant thorn in the Patriots’ side, even during their lean years. In fact, Miami is one of only four teams in the AFC with an overall winning record against New England, and the only one in their division.

Lastly (and most importantly), the Dolphins look like the better team this year. The Patriots’ once-elite defense has taken a step back and looks considerably slower, especially at linebacker. New England’s offense will also have some kinks to work out as it learns Matt Patricia‘s new scheme.

Miami, on the other hand, is trending in the right direction after winning eight of its final nine games last year and adding Tyreek Hill during the offseason.

These two teams tend to play close games when they meet up, so I’m picking the Dolphins to win by four points at home.

Patriots vs Dolphins Bet Tips

Tagovailoa has caught flak for his perceived mediocre play relative to some of his peers, but it’s important to remember that he has a 13-8 record as a starter, including 10-3 at home. Don’t sleep on Jones, though, who went 10-7 last year and 6-2 on the road. The Dolphins have taken three straight games from the Patriots and four of the last five.

Patriots vs Dolphins Best Bets

Dolphins -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Wager: 1 Unit

The Patriots are usually good at taking away the opposing team’s best player, but that’s easier said than done with Hill. Look for Hill to exploit New England’s aging defense and bust loose for a couple of big plays.

Meanwhile, expect the Patriots’ offense to start slow out of the gate. Even after making half-time adjustments, they’ll come up just short.

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Under 46.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Wager: 1 Unit

As mentioned above, New England’s offense may look out of sync off the bat and will likely produce several stalled drives. The Patriots’ attack is still built around the run game and lacks explosive playmakers, which means their drives take up a lot of time and tend to produce field goals in the red zone.

If New England’s defense can bottle up Hill, they’ll limit Miami’s point total, as well, and help us hit the Under.

Patriots vs Dolphins Props

Tyreek Hill: Under 66.5 Receiving Yards (-137) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

I’d recommend taking the Under on Hill’s receiving yards props. We’ve seen Belichick neutralize star players over and over again throughout the years, and Hill may not have much chemistry with Tagovailoa yet, especially compared to Jaylen Waddle.

Hunter Henry: Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)

Wager: 1 Unit

If you’re looking for a TD prop, I’d go with Patriots tight end Hunter Henry. He emerged as Jones’ go-to target in the red zone last year, hauling in a career-high and team-high nine touchdown catches. Don’t be surprised if he finds paydirt.

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Patriots vs Dolphins Parlays

Dolphins -2.5 & Under 46.5 Points (+240) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Wager: 1 Unit

Based on my bet picks above, I’d look to tie together the Dolphins spread or moneyline with the Under to maximize value. Taking an alternate spread to get below the key number of three makes a lot of sense, too.


Tyler Maher

Tyler Maher is a Content Editor for The Game Day, where he edits and writes for the site. Prior to joining The Game Day, he was a fantasy baseball writer and social media editor for A graduate of Tufts University, Tyler is a die-hard Boston sports fan who can't wait for the next duck boat parade.

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