Patriots vs Dolphins Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Oct 25, 2023

The Miami Dolphins are set to host the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

This game will be the second matchup between the AFC East rivals this season. Miami took the first game 24-17 in New England back in Week 2. The Dolphins boast one of the strongest offenses in the league and sit atop the AFC East with a 5-2 record.

Things haven’t been nearly as pleasant for head coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots, who find themselves last in the division with a 2-5 record. However, New England is coming off of a noteworthy victory over another AFC East rival, the Buffalo Bills, and should come into this matchup far more confident.

Can the Patriots hand the Dolphins their first home loss of the season? Let’s find out in our Patriots vs Dolphins predictions and best bets.

Patriots vs Dolphins Odds

NFL odds used for this New England vs Miami preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 24, at 4 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Dolphins (-470) • Patriots (+360)
  • Spread: Dolphins -9.5 (-112) • Patriots +9.5 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 47 (-108) • Under 47 (-112)
  • Implied Score: Favorite 28.25, Underdog 18.75

Patriots vs Dolphins Predictions

Score Pick: Dolphins 28, Patriots 15

These two teams had very different Week 7’s. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins struggled to keep up against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Meanwhile, Mac Jones and the Patriots overcame a Buffalo fourth-quarter comeback to steal a victory against last year’s AFC East winners.

Miami posted its lowest point total of the season (17), while New England just scored a season-high 29 points. Despite these teams coming off their respective worst and best performances, the Dolphins are deserving of the heavy favoritism based on their overall body of work.

Head coach Mike McDaniel has his offense playing better than any other. The Dolphins’ 7.7 yards per play leads the league by a wide margin, but they will now be up against a defense that ranks within the top 10 in yards allowed per play (4.8).

Even so, Miami combined for 389 yards of total offense when these teams met in Week 2, and that trend can be expected to continue here.

Leading the league in both passing and rushing touchdowns, the Dolphins should have no trouble outscoring a team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both statistics.

If the Patriots are to have any chance of winning this game, Jones must play similarly to his effort last week. The 25-year-old quarterback put forth his best performance of the season by far, finishing 25 of 30 for 272 yards and two touchdowns.

The Miami secondary has been plagued by injury, and that could play a key role in this game. The status of All-Pro cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, who are recovering from knee and groin injuries, respectively, will be key to the final outcome in this matchup.

Patriots vs Dolphins Best Bets & Props

Dolphins -9.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

The Dolphins we saw in prime time last weekend weren’t anywhere near their best. Miami’s roster is stacked with talent from top to bottom and could be receiving much-needed reinforcement on both sides of the ball.

Despite injuries to skill players, the offensive line, and several positions on defense, Miami’s big three of Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, and Tagovailoa have carried this squad time and time again. That trio got the best of the Pats the last time around, with Mostert (121 rushing yards and two touchdowns) especially standing out.

Having struggled to keep up with multidimensional offenses all season, the Patriots will now play arguably the best in the league. Miami should be able to run away with this one, making the cover my NFL bet of the day.

Under 47 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 units

It’s hard to predict how these teams will come out against each other after having already met once this season. Division rivals typically have a better understanding of how to stop their opponent, and I believe that will be the case here.

Prior to Sunday night’s defeat, the Patriots had kept Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense to its lowest-scoring output of the season in Week 2.

Unfortunately for New England, Christian Gonzalez, who picked off Tagovailoa and helped slow down Hill in that game, has been ruled out for the remainder of the season due to a shoulder injury. But the reacquisition of J.C. Jackson has the secondary playing at a relatively high level.

The Dolphins will inevitably score in this game, as they simply have too many weapons to account for. However, if any coach and team can keep them in check, it’s Belichick and the Pats.

Dolphins 1H -5.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Miami has been one of the best first-half home teams in the league this season, scoring 24.3 points per first half at Hard Rock Stadium. On the flip side, New England has averaged just five points per first half as a road team. While it’s only a three-game sample size for each, the results are certainly damning to say the least.

If these teams follow the trends seen thus far, Miami to outscore New England by at least six points after 30 minutes of game time seems like a safe proposition. The Dolphins have been a completely different team at home this season and should jump out quickly against their division rivals.

Patriots vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay

Patriots vs Dolphins SGP (+216)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Dolphins -9.5 (-112)
  • Patriots Under 17.5 (-108)
  • Dolphins 1st to Score (-210)
  • Dolphins Race to 10 Points (-280)

We’re utilizing DraftKings’ Same Game Parlay feature to produce some great odds on a four-leg Patriots vs Dolphins parlay.

We will be heavily relying on Miami to rebound from last week’s poor performance. If the offense is able to get back to what it’s been most of the season, this parlay has a great chance of delivering a healthy profit.

The Dolphins coming out of the gate firing on all cylinders will be pivotal for this SGP to succeed. DraftKings seems to agree that they should be able to strike early and often, as evidenced by the heavily skewed odds in favor of them scoring first and beating the Pats to 10 points.

Finally, Miami will need to repeat its defensive success from the first time these teams met. The Dolphins held the Pats to 17 points back in September and could perform even better should their All-Pro corners return from injury. The Patriots’ average of 11.7 points in road games certainly supports taking the Under on their total in this one.

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