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NFL Divisional Round Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Jan 18, 2024

Upsets highlighted the first round of the postseason but may be less likely on NFL Divisional Round Weekend. The Baltimore Ravens want to make sure that recent playoff history does not repeat itself, and the San Francisco 49ers are better equipped than Dallas to put the Green Bay Packers away.

We should see a higher-scoring affair in Detroit. The Bills are undoubtedly hungering to eliminate the Chiefs in the latest chapter of the AFC rivalry.

I have combined my favorite spread and Over/Under picks in this second-round playoff rundown. You can view all NFL Divisional Round odds.

All NFL odds are current as of Jan. 18, 2024, at 11 a.m. ET from DraftKingsSportsbook.

Divisional Round Weekend NFL Featured Best Bets

Ravens -9.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

In the 2019 AFC playoffs, Baltimore earned the No. 1 seed and was immediately upended by Tennessee in its first playoff game. Avoiding another Divisional Round exit as a top seed has been a major storyline around the Ravens this week, and they will be well prepared to deliver another resounding win against a playoff team.

The Ravens have convincingly handled other postseason qualifiers this season, most recently beating Miami by 37 points and downing the 49ers on the road. They also walloped the Lions by 32 points.

Baltimore allowed an NFL-low 16 TD passes to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season, so we might not see another outstanding performance from C.J. Stroud. The Ravens are 8-3 ATS against non-AFC North opponents, and the Texans are just 5-5 ATS after a win, as noted by TeamRankings.

Lock in Baltimore to roll to an AFC Divisional Round victory as the NFL bet of the day.

49ers -9.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER:1 Unit

The 49ers are also favored heavily to the point where many bettors might consider taking the road underdog. Yet, much like Baltimore, San Francisco will be ready to snuff out any hopes of another shocking outcome like we saw in the first round.

The Packers win in Dallas was certainly the most startling result of the Wild Card round, and the Niners aren’t going to let Green Bay execute a similar sort of game plan. Aaron Jones rushed for 100-plus yards for the fourth consecutive game, finishing with 118; Jordan Love was not sacked as the Packers executed a balanced attack and kept the Dallas offense off the field for extensive periods while building a lead.

San Francisco’s defense ranked third against the run during the regular season and will be focused on containing Jones, putting Love in adverse passing situations, and forcing the Green Bay offense off the field quickly and frequently. Christian McCaffrey can then attack a Packers defense that ranked 28th against the run during the regular season.

Brandon Aiyuk has the second-best WR/CB matchup of any WR in the Divisional Round against an opposing CB group on Pro Football Focus this week, and George Kittle has the best TE matchup. The Green Bay defense might spend too much time on the field against too many playmakers.

The Packers are 0-3 ATS when having a rest disadvantage this season.

Lions vs Buccaneers: Over 48.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Detroit narrowly missed reaching the projected game total for this week’s matchup in the Wild Card round. The Lions only scored 24 points in a tough matchup vs the Rams last week, and I expect them to exceed that total this week.

Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranked 27th during the regular season, and they will struggle against Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has the best WR/CB matchup on PFF this week. Detroit also has the best run-blocking advantage of any team on PFF for the Divisional Round.

Baker Mayfield is performing well enough to keep Tampa Bay in the game, as he was one of three QBs with 15+ TD passes (18) on the road during the regular season. Mike Evans will have a good game against a Detroit pass defense that allowed Puka Nacua to romp for 181 receiving yards last week.

The Lions are 8-4 to the Over after a win and were able to hit this week’s projected Over in seven of their last nine regular season games. Tampa Bay has scored 29+ points in four of its last six games, including the playoffs.

Bills -2.5 (-118)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 Units

Buffalo’s current six-game winning streak, including the playoffs, started with a win in Kansas City in Week 14, and the Bills will now put an end to the Chiefs’ season. The home team has re-emerged as a serious top contender, while the visitors don’t look like the same explosive outfit we knew during two recent Super Bowl runs.

The Bills have been waiting to exact revenge on Kansas City after they were eliminated from the AFC playoffs in the last two postseason meetings. Patrick Mahomes has thrown one TD pass in five of his last six games, and this will be his first road playoff game with a receiving crew that cannot match Josh Allen’s for quality depth.

Kansas City’s defense can keep it in the game but won’t be able to counter with offensive punches when it counts most. The Bills averaged 29.7 points per game at home during the regular season and scored 31 in the Wild Card round, while the Chiefs averaged 20.8 points in away games.

Kansas City was just 4-3-1 ATS as a road team during the regular season and 6-5 ATS after a win.

Author

Scott Engel

Scott Engel is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously he was at SportsLine.com and The Athletic. His work is also featured at RotoBaller and on Seahawks.com. Scott is a host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. He is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame. Scott is a four-time FSWA award winner and a 13-time finalist. He was an Associate Editor and featured writer at ESPN.com. and his career began at CBS SportsLine, where he was a Senior Writer and Managing Editor. Scott was the Managing Director at RotoExperts.

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