NFL Divisional Round Predictions & Best Bets

Posted: Jan 20, 2023Last updated: Jan 21, 2023

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is upon us. Now that Wild Card Weekend is over, it is time to prepare for the new NFL betting slate, which consists of four games and the eight best teams left standing in the NFL.

When it comes to my 2022 regular season best bets, I completely face-planted. I was night and day better with NFL player props, but that does not count toward this unit tally.

However, all is not lost. The NFL Playoffs are a new betting season, and I started off with a bang.

My best bets for Wild Card Weekend went 5-1. Now, it is time to finish the job for the rest of the postseason.

Anthony Cervino’s 2022 NFL Best Bets Record: 41-61 (-28.5 Units)

NFL odds and lines are current as of noon ET, on Tuesday, Jan. 17, at Caesars Sportsbook.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet

Divisional Weekend Best Bet: Jaguars vs Chiefs

Jaguars +8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

When the Jaguars and Chiefs played earlier this season, Kansas City won the game, 27-17. The NFL point spread settled as a push.

Since that game, the Chiefs are 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 games.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars caught fire. They went 7-1 straight up in that period, including six consecutive victories.

Keep up with the best NFL odds for NFL Divisional Round games

The Jags also went 6-2 ATS in that same eight-game span.

While the Chiefs out-match the Jaguars, Jacksonville did end the regular season fifth in takeaways with 26. If they can give Trevor Lawrence additional opportunities, the Jaguars will cover the spread.

Doug Pederson knows Andy Reid and his tendencies well. This will also be a factor in keeping the game close.

The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings between these two sides, while the Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games at Arrowhead.

Lock in my NFL bet of the day. (Read more on this game in our Chiefs vs Jaguars prediction.)

Divisional Weekend Best Bet: Giants vs Eagles

Over 48.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Expect there to be fireworks when the Giants and Eagles face off for the third time this season. And this time, the Giants are playing their best football offensively thanks to the emergence of Daniel Jones and Isaiah Hodgins.

The Eagles are the Eagles. We know they can score the football, especially with a healthy Jalen Hurts.

The bye week was a must for a banged-up Eagles team on either side of the ball.

The Over is 2-1 in the past three meetings between the Giants and Eagles. The total went Under in Week 18, but the Giants didn’t play their starters and the Eagles were looking to get out of the game without any more injuries.

The Over is also 3-1 in the Giants’ past four games. This further shows that the Giants can now put points on the board.

Last week, Josh Allen threw two interceptions, with three fumbles, one of which was lost. That is three more giveaways added to that regular-season total.

Allen’s mistakes kept the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins in a game that they should have been blown out in on paper.

If you give Joe Burrow the ball three additional times, he will make you pay.

The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine matchups between the Bills and Bengals. Take the Bengals to cover, but there is certainly value in their +196 moneyline to win outright. (Peek at more info on this game in our Eagles vs Giants betting tips.)

Divisional Weekend Best Bet: Cowboys vs 49ers

Cowboys +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The 49ers and Cowboys both decimated their Wild Card Weekend foes. However, despite the fact that Dallas played their game of the year on Monday night, many are already counting them out on the road against the 49ers.

Having to win road playoff games is nothing new to Mike McCarthy. McCarthy’s 2010 Packers had to run the table on the road en route to Green Bay’s Super Bowl victory that year over the Steelers.

McCarthy will have his Cowboys team prepared.

Furthermore, has Brock Purdy been tested yet as a starter? Outside of trailing against the Raiders earlier this season and the Seahawks by one point at halftime last week, you can make the case that Mr. Irrelevant has yet to face adversity in his young NFL career.

Adversity could come in the form of Dan Quinn and his defense, which is one week removed from handing Tom Brady the worst postseason loss of his career. If the Cowboys show up in San Francisco the way they did last week in Tampa Bay on both sides of the ball, they will not only cover the spread, but they will also win the game straight up.

The Cowboys are 3-1 straight up and ATS in their past four meetings against the 49ers with two of those games being played in San Francisco. The road team is also 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings between these two sides.

(We expand on this game in our 49ers vs Cowboys predictions.)


Anthony Cervino

Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter. Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation. Industry Clout: 15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019) | 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020) | 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).

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