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Packers vs Cowboys Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Jan 11, 2024

The NFL playoffs have officially arrived after a long and grueling 18-week regular season.

Among the six games set to take center stage, Wild Card Weekend features a mouth-watering NFC matchup between the seventh-seed Green Bay Packers (9-8) and the number-two-seed Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.

The winner of this game will secure a spot in the NFC Divisional Round, while the loser will see their season end.

Let’s take a deep dive, examine some odds, predictions, best bets, and prop bets, and offer up a same-game parlay in what promises to be one of the weekend’s most anticipated games between the Packers and Cowboys as the NFL Wild Card round begins.

Packers vs Cowboys Odds

NFL odds used for this Green Bay vs Dallas preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Monday, Jan. 8, at 8:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Cowboys (-375) • Packers (+275)
  • Spread: Cowboys -7.5 (-108) • Packers +7.5 (-112)
  • Total Points: Over 50.5 (-112) • Under 50.5 (-108)
  • Implied Score: Cowboys 29, Packers 21.5

Packers vs Cowboys Predictions

Score Pick: Cowboys 33, Packers 22

The Packers enter this contest as heavy 7.5-point underdogs on the road against the high-flying Cowboys.

The game total for this one currently sits at 50.5, meaning professional oddsmakers and sportsbooks anticipate a high-scoring encounter between Green Bay and Dallas on Sunday afternoon.

Dallas dominated on both sides of the ball this season, ranking first in football in Points Per Game (29.9), third in Passing Yards Per Game (258.6), and fifth in both Turnover Differential (+10) and Total Yards Conceded Per Game (299.7), per The Football Database.

The 2023 campaign also saw the Cowboys go undefeated at home, sporting a perfect 8-8 record - the only team to do so.

On the opposite sideline, the Packers have struggled on the defensive side of the ball all season long, ranking 20th in the NFL in Opponents’ Yards Per Play (5.4) and 23rd in Opponents’ Rushing First Down Percentage (35.29%) via NFL Team Rankings.

Given their utter dominance at home and Green Bay’s questionable defensive acumen, look for the Cowboys to take care of business and advance to the Divisional Round in front of that raucous home crowd down in Arlington.

Packers vs Cowboys Best Bets & Props

Cowboys -7.5 (-108)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Our first best bet will target the Cowboys against the spread on a single-unit wager.

Much of the Cowboys’ success in 2023 can be attributed to their high-powered offense led by the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, and quarterback Dak Prescott.

Of the top 40 QBs with a minimum of 135 passing attempts, Prescott ranked second in Completion Percentage (69.5%), Completion Percentage Above Expectation (4.7%), and Passer Rating (105.9), per NFL Next Gen Stats. It could be a long afternoon for the Packers defense if Prescott can remain in the pocket and get into a rhythm.

Dallas also owns a 10-7 record ATS this season, which carries with it a 58.8% success rate. As home favorites, this number jumps to 75% (6-2).

Look for the Cowboys to cover the spread and win by at least two scores at an enticing (-112) price point as my NFL bet of the day.

Over 50.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Our second best bet will pinpoint the Over on the game total of 50.5.

Sunday’s matchup features two teams who love to play offensive, up-tempo football, which bodes well for those betting on the Over.

The past three weeks have also seen both teams rank in the top 10 in pace of play, with the Packers running 65.3 plays per game (sixth) and the Cowboys with 64 (10th).

Both teams have also shown a propensity for getting into the red zone and finishing drives, with the Cowboys ranked first in Red Zone Scoring Attempts Per Game (4.2) and the Packers ranked fifth (3.8) via NFL Team Rankings.

Regarding recent trends, the 2023 NFL season also saw Dallas and Green Bay combine for a 19-15 record against the total, accounting for a 55.8% hit ratio.

When you consider both teams’ efficiency and consistency on offense, there’s no real concrete evidence to suggest this game fails to see 51 total points or more.

Take the Over at (-112) odds.

Cowboys 1H Over 14.5 (+100)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Our third and final best bet will target the Over on Dallas’ first-half team total in points, currently sitting at 14.5.

Dallas has generated some elite offensive numbers this season, ranking first in football in Completions Per Game (25.2) and third in both Gross Passing Yards Per Game (274.1) and Time of Possession Percentage (53%) via NFL Team Rankings.

Statistics such as these, combined with Dallas’ vast array of offensive weapons, have enhanced their ability to sustain drives and progress down the field consistently during critical junctures of games.

On the Green Bay side of things, the Packers have struggled to get key defensive stops all year long, sitting 25th in football in Opponents Rushing First Downs Per Game (7.1), 20th in Opponent Yards Per Pass Attempt (6.7), and 27th in Opponent Passing Yards Percentage (61.71%).

In a game that’s expected to see a ton of offense from the home team, look for the Cowboys to score early and often en route to securing at least 15 first-half points at (+100) odds.

Packers vs Cowboys Same Game Parlay

Packers vs Cowboys SGP (+116)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Cowboys (-375)
  • Cowboys Over 31.5 Alt (+120)

Our same-game parlay will target an alternative wager on the Cowboys’ team total in points, combined with them winning outright. Let’s start with Dallas’ team total.

As previously stated, no team in football scores more than the Cowboys, ranking first in football in various advanced analytics such as Yards Per Point (12.4), second in Yards Per Point Margin (3.8), and fifth in Red Zone Touchdown Scores Per Game (2.4), per NFL Team Rankings. Simply put, when the Cowboys march down the field, they usually put six points on the board, especially at home.

In addition, the Packers defense should have their hands full with star wide-out Lamb, who has absolutely shredded opposing defenses this season, ranking first in the NFL in Receptions (135) and Targets (175) and second in Touchdowns (12) per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Take Dallas’ elite-level offense to exceed 31.5 points as home favorites.

Rounding out our same-game parlay is the Cowboys on the moneyline.

As anticipated, Mike McCarthy’s team enters this game as heavy favorites (-375), carrying a whopping 78.95% implied win probability.

With the pressure solely on the Cowboys, Green Bay presents a real interesting test for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. That said, I’m confident the Cowboys put forth a complete 60-minute effort in this one and take this game handily.

Combine the two plays at (+116) odds.

Author

Domenic Lunardo

Domenic is a freelance sportswriter at The Game Day. Previously, he wrote for The Hockey Writers, Prime Time Sports Talk, and Faceoff Sports Network. Over the past few years, Domenic has provided analysis more frequently in the sports betting industry and maintains an active presence on Twitter, primarily posting daily betting cards across the NHL, NFL, MLB, NBA, college basketball, and soccer. Although Domenic has a diverse sporting background, he specializes in hockey and football.

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