Commanders vs Patriots Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 2, 2023

The Washington Commanders (3-5) travel north to face the New England Patriots (2-6) at Gillette Stadium in Week 9. Both teams are coming off losses last week and rank among the worst NFL teams in several key metrics.

Both teams feature young quarterbacks who have been going through some growing pains early in their careers. The signal-caller with the better game on Sunday will likely lead his team to victory.

Below are our predictions and best bets for this contest.

Commanders vs Patriots Odds

NFL odds used for this Washington vs New England preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 1 at 3:00 PM ET.

  • Moneyline: Patriots (-162) • Commanders (+136)
  • Spread: Patriots -3 (-115) • Commanders +3 (-105)
  • Total Points: Over 40.5 (-110) • Under 40.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Patriots 21.5, Commanders 18.5

Commanders vs Patriots Predictions

Score Pick: Patriots 24, Commanders 20

Earlier in the week, I was more inclined to take the Commanders plus the points. I even considered taking them on the money line. However, the recent trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat have swayed me a bit.

Young and Sweat were arguably the two top defenders on a team already struggling to slow down opposing offenses. Washington has allowed the second-most points per game (28.5) in the NFL this season, including five games of 33 or more.

New England may need more firepower on offense to score in the thirties. They have only surpassed 20 total points in one of eight games. However, this should be a spot for them to reach that threshold and pull out a win in Week 9.

Commanders vs Patriots Best Bets & Props

Patriots (-166)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

I normally do not like to lay this much juice on a bet. However, I cannot bring myself to lay the 3.5 points, given New England’s lackluster results thus far. Having said that, I do expect the Patriots to win this game.

The Patriots have allowed 26 points per game, and Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has put up huge numbers of late. However, some of these numbers may be a bit deceiving.

New England’s defense ranks 12th in overall DVOA, while Howell ranks 28th among starting quarterbacks in EPA (expected points added). I expect the Patriots to play a bend-don’t-break defense style and force Howell to play a clean game. Howell may have his moments of success, but ultimately, I expect the Patriots to hold on. I am taking New England to win on Sunday as my NFL bet of the day.

Commanders to Score Longest Touchdown (+110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

It may seem odd to pick the Commanders to score the longest touchdown, given I am taking the Patriots to win the game. So, let me explain why I am making this pick.

The Commanders have 28 total plays of 20 or more yards, compared to only 17 for the Patriots. New England plays man defense at the fifth-highest rate in the league, and I expect that to help curtail Howell’s overall production.

Howell completes only 59.5 percent of his passes versus man compared to 70.6 percent against zone.

However, when Howell does complete passes against man coverage, it is more likely to be a longer gain.

Additionally, Howell averages 12.9 yards per completion against man compared to 9.8 yards per completion versus zone. I expect Howell to record one touchdown long enough for us to cash this prop.

Patriots to Win by 1-6 Points (+310)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

The Patriots and Commanders rank 23rd and 24th, respectively, in overall team DVOA, so I expect this game to be a hotly contested battle between two teams fighting to keep faint playoff hopes alive. This game will likely come down to one or two plays on either side of the ball.

I give the Patriots the edge from a coaching and defensive perspective, so I am picking them to win. But I expect the Commanders to keep it close, making this an interesting bet given the payout.

Commanders vs Patriots Same Game Parlay

Commanders vs Patriots SGP (+190)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Patriots (-166)
  • Both Teams to Score 15+ Points (-125)

As I mentioned above, I believe the Patriots have a slight edge in this contest based primarily on their defense and coaching advantage in this game. That is why I am taking them on the money line as part of my SGP.

This game will not be an offensive explosion by any means. But 15 points seems reasonable for both teams to get to on Sunday. Washington and New England have scored 15+ in six of eight games this season while allowing 15 or more in seven of eight games.

Adding this leg gives this SGP a nice boost, nearly tripling our potential payout. This feels like a very attainable Same Game Parlay for this game.

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