The matchup between the Washington Commanders and New York Jets on Sunday isn’t the most thrilling. Nevertheless, even unexciting games have intriguing wagering options among the NFL Week 16 odds.
The sides and totals are the most alluring in a contest between non-contenders.
The Commanders are below average on both sides of the ball, and Gang Green’s top-shelf defense should make the difference.
Let’s examine my favorite ways to attack this game.
Commanders vs Jets Odds
NFL odds used for this Washington vs New York preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of December 20 at 8:15 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Jets (-165) • Commanders (+140)
- Spread: Jets -3 (-110) • Commanders +3 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 37 (-110) • Under 37 (-110)
- Implied Score: Jets 20, Commanders 17
Commanders vs Jets Predictions
Score Pick: Jets 23, Commanders 13
Sadly, Zach Wilson is in the NFL’s concussion protocol, casting doubt about his availability this weekend. Trevor Siemian will start if Wilson is out.
Siemian has completed only 19 of 39 pass attempts this season and thrown two interceptions. He doesn’t inspire confidence in New York’s scoring potential.
Nevertheless, Washington’s defense has been non-existent lately. In six games since the Commanders traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young, they’ve allowed 32.5 points per game, with a median of 30.
The Commanders have coughed up at least 28 points to five opponents in that stretch. However, the New England Patriots’ lowly offense was the outlier, mustering just 17 points.
If Siemian starts, the Jets will be in the same tier of putrid offense as the Patriots. So, New York’s projected score splits the difference between New England’s lousy showing against the Commanders and everyone else’s offensive outbursts since November.
Meanwhile, Washington’s offense has scored 20 points or fewer in four straight games and five of the past six. In addition, New York’s defense is talented and the only quality unit in this game. As a result, the Jets can put the clamps on the Commanders.
Commanders vs Jets Best Bets & Props
Jets -3 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The Commanders have lost five consecutive games. The Jets had an impressive 30-6 victory at home in Week 14 against the Texans before getting boatraced 30-0 by the Dolphins in Miami in Week 15.
So, the Jets have shown signs of life as recently as Week 14. Moreover, the Commanders don’t have anything to hang their hat on.
According to FTN Fantasy, Washington is 29th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), 22nd in offense, and 31st in defense. The Jets are 26th in total DVOA, 32nd in offense, but third in defense DVOA. Thus, this is the NFL bet of the day.
Jets -9.5 (+206)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
The Jets won by 24 points in their last home game. The Commanders have lost by over 9.5 points in three of their last four games.
If the Jets are to cover this alternate spread, they’ll need their defense to give their offense favorable field position to offset their scoring deficiencies. Thankfully, they have the chops to do that, and Sam Howell can make their life easier.
According to Pro Football Reference, Howell has the fourth-highest sack rate (9.9%) and has tied for the fourth-highest interception rate (2.8%) this season. He’s ill-equipped to overcome a challenging matchup.
Commanders Under 17.5 (-135)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
New York’s defense should exacerbate Howell’s propensity to throw interceptions and take sacks. Per Pro Football Reference, the Jets have the second-highest pressure rate (27.7%) and have forced 19 turnovers this year.
Furthermore, the Jets have allowed the third-fewest yards per play (4.6). They’re a challenging matchup for savvy veteran quarterbacks, and Howell’s an inexperienced signal-caller prone to making mistakes.
Since New York’s bye in Week 7, they’ve held four of eight opponents under 17.5 points. The teams that surpassed that threshold were the Chargers (when Justin Herbert was healthy), Bills, and Dolphins (twice).
Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, and Josh Allen are much more productive and experienced quarterbacks than Howell. The Giants, Raiders, Falcons, and Texans averaged 11.25 points, with a median of 11.5, against the Jets in the other four contests since their bye.
Commanders vs Jets Same-Game Parlay
Commanders vs Jets SGP (+252)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- Jets -3 (-112)
- Under 37 (-112)
- Commanders Under 16.5 (-105)
The Commanders will struggle to move the ball against New York’s stout defense. The likely absence of Brian Robinson (hamstring) won’t make their life any easier since the Jets are less formidable against the run than against the pass.
New York’s games have hit the Under nine times in 14 contests. They’ve allowed an average of 20.5 points per game, with an average of 19.2, this season.
The Jets -3 is a holdover from the best bets section. Again, New York’s defense should be the difference in this game.
