The Commanders and Giants played in a low-scoring battle in Week 7, with the G-Men earning a 14-7 victory. Tyrod Taylor started that contest but is on injured reserve with the team’s starting quarterback, Daniel Jones.
So, this isn’t the same team in the rematch, and the Commanders have rebounded offensively from the hiccup in New Jersey. Big Blue is on a crash course with the top pick in the NFL Draft, and the Commanders are at least showing signs of life on offense.
Washington’s advantages and occasionally high-powered offense will create an intriguing mix of best NFL betting picks for this contest between sides, totals, and player props.
Giants vs Commanders Odds
NFL odds used for this New York vs Washington preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, Nov. 16, at midnight ET.
- Moneyline: Commanders (-430) • Giants (+328)
- Spread: Commanders -9 (-110) • Giants +9 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 37 (-110) • Under 37 (-110)
- Implied Score: Commanders 23, Giants 14
Giants vs Commanders Predictions
Score Pick: Commanders 28, Giants 17
The Giants are playing out the string. Yet, it’s not entirely their fault. Injuries have crippled them.
With Jones and Taylor injured, rookie undrafted free agent Tommy DeVito is pressed into duty he’s unqualified for. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Devito is 37th in its passing grade, tied for the 12th-highest turnover-worthy play percentage (3.7 TWP%), and has the highest pressure-to-sack percentage (35.1 P2S%) among 41 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season.
According to FTN Fantasy, the G-Men are 32nd in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), 32nd in offense DVOA, and 29th in defense DVOA. By that measure, they’re the worst team in the NFL, and their injury report is overflowing with players on both sides of the ball.
The Commanders aren’t world-beaters, ranking 25th in total DVOA, 22nd in offense DVOA, and 30th in defense DVOA. Still, relatively speaking, they’re much better than their visiting rival and have fewer impactful injuries.
Washington’s offense is markedly better than New York’s, scoring at least 20 points in three straight contests and eight of 10 this season. Meanwhile, the Giants scored 33 total points in three games when DeVito played most of the team’s snaps at quarterback.
In addition, Big Blue’s defense has come up little lately. They’ve allowed 79 points in the previous two weeks. It’s a lopsided matchup, and Washington’s offense should carry it to a comfortable win.
Giants vs Commanders Best Bets & Props
Sam Howell Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is dialing up the pass at an eye-popping rate. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Commanders have the highest pass rate (71%) in neutral game scripts since Week 7, five percent higher than the second-highest mark.
Sam Howell hasn’t been flawless in his sophomore season. However, he’s averaged 278.3 passing yards per game, with a median of 294.5 this season. Howell had fewer than 245.5 passing yards only twice in 10 games.
The matchup is cushy this week. The Giants permitted 249 passing yards to Howell in Week 7, 228 to Zach Wilson in Week 8, 209 on only 25 attempts to Aidan O’Connell in Week 9, and 404 to Dak Prescott in Week 10.
Washington’s pass-happy tendencies, coupled with New York’s ineptitude against the pass, make Howell’s Over for 245.5 passing yards an exciting wager and the NFL bet of the day.
Commanders Over 23.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
The Giants had a quality three-game stretch on defense from Week 6 through Week 8, but that’s an outlier stretch. New York has allowed over 23.5 points in back-to-back games and in seven of 10 contests.
The Commanders should be the latest squad to torch the Giants. They’ve eclipsed 23.5 points in two of their last three games.
Moreover, after trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, their below-average defense should force the Commanders to keep their foot on the accelerator.
Terry McLaurin Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
The Commanders use a wide array of weapons. Still, Terry McLaurin is the club’s unquestioned top passing-game weapon.
He’s averaging 60.1 receiving yards per game, with a median of 58.5. However, McLaurin had a toe injury entering the year and was held below 55 receiving yards in the first three games of the season, depressing his average and median.
McLaurin had over 58.5 receiving yards in five of his past seven games. Finally, the Giants have allowed nine instances of a wideout surpassing 58.5 receiving yards this season, including McLaurin with 90.
Giants vs Commanders Same Game Parlay
Giants vs Commanders SGP (+220)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Commanders -5.5 (-199)
- Sam Howell 225+ Passing Yards (-245)
- Terry McLaurin 50+ Receiving Yards (-182)
Howell and McLaurin should eviscerate the Giants. Nevertheless, taking alternate lower lines than their standard posted totals allows wiggle room for Washington to take the air out of the ball if they’re boat-racing the Giants.
While the projected score above has the Commanders comfortably covering the nine-point spread, taking a lower alternate spread is appealing with their lousy defense. Even with three chalky lines, the betting odds for the suggested three-leg parlay are a tasty +220.
Finally, Howell’s and McLaurin’s props are directly correlated, enhancing the appeal of using them together.
