The Indianapolis Colts, backup quarterback and all, return home Sunday with a chance to move further into contention in a messy AFC South.
A win against the Pittsburgh Steelers could see them end the day in first place in the division, with the Jacksonville Jaguars drawing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Here are our NFL Week 15 best bets for Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis.
Steelers vs Colts Odds
NFL odds used for this Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, Dec. 13, at 4 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Colts (-130) • Steelers (+110)
- Spread: Colts -1.5 (-110) • Steelers +1.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 42.5 (-110) • Under 42.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Colts 22.0, Steelers 20.5
Steelers vs Colts Predictions
Score Pick: Colts 23, Steelers 13
Things have gotten marginally better for the Steelers ever since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada in late November, yet when you put it all together, this offense has still averaged just under 15 points per game ever since his departure.
Now, Pittsburgh is dealing with another massive change, with Mitch Trubisky taking over at quarterback for Kenny Pickett after the young signal-caller suffered an ankle injury a couple of weeks back.
The Steelers are heavily reliant on the run, ranking ninth in rush play rate entering Week 15. While the Colts haven’t had the best season in that regard, they’ve now limited two good rushing attacks (Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans) to just under four yards per carry in the past two weeks in what’s been a marked improvement up front.
The ground is just about the only place where the Steelers are going to have any sort of edge in this game, and with things looking better on that front for Indy, the home team should comfortably come away with a victory.
Steelers vs Colts Best Bets & Props
Colts (-125)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
As you may have surmised, I love the Colts at this price.
They’ve gone just 2-4 straight up at home this season but are a better 3-3 against the spread, and they’re a perfect 4-0 against the spread as favorites, with one of those covers coming in Indy.
The Colts have done well when expected to win, and with a strong edge under center with arguably the best backup in football in Gardner Minshew, Indy should once again flex its muscles as it has done in the last month-and-a-half against inferior competition.
Pittsburgh may enter with a winning record, but it has Trubisky to worry about under center. He sits back in 50th when it comes to EPA + completion percentage over expected among quarterbacks who have taken 10 snaps, clocking in with a mark of +0.003 – which is even worse than Pickett (0.019).
He’s also more turnover-prone than Pickett, which will hurt against a Colts team ranked seventh in takeaways per game.
The Steelers have some troubling injuries mounting, with starting guard Isaac Seumalo missing practice with a shoulder injury and wideout Diontae Johnson sitting out with a knee problem. Key linebacker Alex Highsmith is also working his way back from a concussion and may miss this one.
The Colts have improved on offense in recent weeks, and even though the Steelers boast a formidable defense, they’re still just marginally above average in EPA against the run or pass.
This is a game the Colts – who have thrived offensively at home this year – should win. With that, they’re our NFL bet of the day.
Under 42.5 (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Over in Colts games this season is an impressive 9-4, but when Indy has been favored, the Over is just 2-2.
That’s because, for the majority of the season, the Colts have had to overcome horrific performances on the defensive side of the ball and outscore opponents in shootouts.
That certainly shouldn’t be the case here with one of the least efficient offenses, and one that loves to run, coming to town. The Colts should be in a manageable enough spot to establish the run, which we have seen them do in advantageous positions, and with that, the Under should be in play.
The Steelers rank eighth in red-zone defense, so that should also help our case considering the stronger of the two offenses will be the one to have issues punching the ball in for six.
There’s a reason I predicted the score I did – we should see a handful of touchdowns and plenty of field goals.
Steelers vs Colts Same-Game Parlay
Steelers vs Colts SGP (+375)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Colts (-130)
- Under 42.5 (-110)
- Najee Harris Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The weeks go on, but Najee Harris maintains his hold on the running back position. We’ve seen the gap between him and Jaylen Warren dissipate, however, given the ineffectiveness of the Alabama product.
Warren is coming off of a game in which he played a season-high 53% of snaps, but he was rather ineffective with just 11 yards on seven totes. Harris wasn’t much better, however, with 12 carries for 29 yards. For the season, he has averaged 4.04 yards per carry to Warren’s 5.61.
The choice is becoming clearer for coach Mike Tomlin, and in a game in which the Steelers should play from behind and pass more than normal, the Under on Harris yards is in play.
The Colts have been shoring up their run defense in recent games and should be able to hold an ineffective Harris at bay as we move closer to Tomlin naming Warren the starter.
Mix that all in with our analysis from above and you’ve got a reasonable same-gamer.
