Packers vs Chiefs Predictions | Best Bets & Odds

Last Updated: Aug 24, 2022

Two of the NFL’s best will square off in a preseason clash on Thursday, Aug. 25 between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Packers are fresh off a 20-10 victory over the New Orleans Saints, on the back of a strong performance by backup quarterback Jordan Love. However, reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers has yet to see action in the preseason and he is expected to remain on the sideline again this Thursday.

Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes tossed two touchdowns in the Chiefs’ recent preseason win over the Washington Commanders. Bettors should expect to see Mahomes on the field for at least the first couple of series versus Green Bay before giving way to Shane Buechele.

Position battles rage on as the Aug. 30 deadline to trim rosters down to 53 draws closer, so expect to see a game full of backups once again. That being said, let’s examine current betting lines to find the Green Bay vs Kansas City best bets and props for this clash of top teams.

Packers vs Chiefs Odds

At the time of writing, this matchup is a virtual toss-up with the Chiefs being favored by just 1.5 points at home over the Packers. The Over/Under of 36.5 points is tied for the lowest game total on the board for preseason Week 3, according to our NFL odds.

Packers vs Chiefs Implied Score

Chiefs 19, Packers 17.5

Sportsbooks are giving the Chiefs a narrow edge at home over Green Bay. That being said, the game total is rather low considering that Mahomes is likely to see the field for a decent chunk of the first half. As a result, the Over seems like a decent bet in this preseason matchup.

Packers vs Chiefs Pick of the Day

Read more on this Packers vs Chiefs bet below.

Packers vs Chiefs Matchup

Love was 12-for-24 for 113 yards and a touchdown during Green Bay’s recent victory over the Saints, which snapped a four-game preseason losing streak. Third-string quarterback Danny Etling attempted just one pass last week, but in the final tuneup of the preseason, the 28-year-old should expect an extended look.

Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have not been given carries through the first two preseason games for the Packers, with undrafted rookie Tyler Goodson seeing most of the action with 79 rushing yards. Through the air, rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs continues to stand out as a name to watch.

Meanwhile, Mahomes has played in just three drives for the Chiefs this preseason, but has managed to score in each of them. The Kansas City starting core is very strong, and if Andy Reid gives them an extended run to start the game, this game might jump out to a high-scoring start.

Buechele and Dustin Crum are in a battle for the No. 3 quarterback role, with Chad Henne locked in as the primary backup, so expect to see plenty of opportunities for the pair of undrafted rookies to stake their claim against Green Bay.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is unlikely to see much action in this game, along with Jerick McKinnon, who is dealing with an injury. Instead, Ronald Jones and rookie Isiah Pacheco will man the backfield.

Packers vs Chiefs Prediction

Chiefs 24, Packers 21

The Chiefs have a clear and decisive advantage at quarterback if Mahomes is allowed to start once again, while Rodgers has not seen a preseason field since 2018.

Love has looked impressive in short bursts during his time on the field this preseason, but it is unlikely that he will be able to match score for score with the Kansas City starting lineup before third-string talent takes over in the second half.

I expect the Chiefs to build an early lead and for the Packers to crawl back slowly as the game edges to a close, only to come up short. Green Bay is traditionally awful in the preseason under Matt LeFleur, and this is little reason to expect that to change much on the road at Arrowhead Stadium.

Packers vs Chiefs Bet Tips

Green Bay is 0-6-1 in their last seven preseason games as the underdog, while Kansas City is 9-1 over their last 10 home games.

The Over has hit in six of the last eight meetings between the Packers and Chiefs.

Packers vs Chiefs Best Bets

Over 36.5 Total Points (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

As mentioned above, 36.5 is the lowest game total on the board for Week 3 of the preseason. If the Chiefs starters are permitted to play a couple of series, they could quickly put a severe dent into the game total.

Green Bay is unlikely to walk away with the victory, but given the way Love has performed so far, there is a decent chance he connects on a few highlight reel plays that could result in first-half points.

If there is the announcement that Mahomes will not play, you could potentially pivot to a Packers cover. Otherwise, bet the Over in this showdown between Kansas City and Green Bay as our NFL pick of the day.


Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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