Dolphins vs Chiefs Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 2, 2023

Two AFC powerhouses will clash in a neutral setting when the Miami Dolphins take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany.

Having both started 6-2, these squads now face arguably their toughest opponent in each other. Miami enters the Week 9 matchup after a convincing home victory over its division rivals, the New England Patriots. Kansas City, on the other hand, could not find any offense in a rare defeat to its AFC West rival, the Denver Broncos.

This game kicks off Sunday at 9:30 a.m. EST at Deutsche Bank Park, a stadium most notably used by the soccer club Eintracht Frankfurt. With the stage set, let’s take a look at the Dolphins vs Chiefs best bets and predictions.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds

NFL odds used for this Miami vs Kansas City preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 31, and 4 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Chiefs (-142) • Dolphins (+120)
  • Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-110) • Dolphins +2.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 51 (-105) • Under 51 (-115)
  • Implied Score: Chiefs 26.75, Dolphins 24.25

Dolphins vs Chiefs Predictions

Score Pick: Dolphins 33, Chiefs 28

Football fans from around the world should be excited for Sunday morning’s matchup between two of the most prominent Super Bowl contenders in the AFC.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have proven to be the best offense in the league week in and week out. However, defeating the reigning Super Bowl Champions in a German soccer stadium would be their most noteworthy accomplishment yet.

Miami’s two losses this season have come against a pair of elite squads – the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles. Mike McDaniel’s team has been repeatedly criticized for its inability to overcome tough opponents this season, but that all ends here.

The Dolphins regained their groove this past Sunday by putting up 390 yards of total offense against the Patriots. Tyreek Hill continued his record-breaking start to the season, as the former Chief posted seven catches for 112 yards and a touchdown.

The Miami offense could also be bolstered by the return of Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead, who is currently listed as questionable. It’s hard to argue that this year’s Chiefs roster can compare to a nearly full-strength Dolphins team.

A mediocre performance from Patrick Mahomes nearly always results in defeat for Kansas City. That was the case in last weekend’s loss to the Broncos, when Mahomes was just 24 of 38 for 241 yards and two interceptions. Apart from Mahomes and Travis Kelce, Kansas City simply doesn’t have enough consistent weapons to match up with an offense like Miami’s.

Last year’s Super Bowl MVP will also have the added pressure of facing a stacked secondary that could see Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, and Jevon Holland debut as a unit for the first time. As of Tuesday morning, Howard and Holland are considered questionable with a groin injury and concussion, respectively.

This game should be one of the most entertaining of the season, and I believe Miami has just enough to upset the Super Bowl champs in Germany.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Best Bets & Props

Dolphins +2.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

Oddsmakers appear to have this game coming down to the wire, with Kansas City favored by less than a field goal.

I think Miami has the opportunity to not only cover but win outright after another masterclass by Tagovailoa and the offense. Both of the Dolphins’ losses this season have come on the road in tough environments. With this game being played on neutral ground, I can see Miami stealing a win late.

It will be key to follow the Dolphins’ extensive injury report, but if Miami’s Week 8 performance is indicative of what we’ll see Sunday morning, the Dolphins +2.5 will be my NFL bet of the day.

Over 51 (-105)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 units

Miami’s league-leading 16 offensive touchdowns have helped produce a 5-3 O/U record through eight weeks. If there’s been a constant over this first half of the season, it’s that the Dolphins typically put up points, win or lose.

While the Chiefs haven’t been nearly as explosive scoring-wise, Mahomes and the championship culture in Kansas City should have the reigning champs playing up to their competition. Head coach Andy Reid will have no choice but to be aggressive on offense with how strong Miami has been on that side of the ball all season.

Dolphins to Win by 1-6 (+310)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

For a far riskier but more lucrative bet, taking the Dolphins to Win by 1-6 points is a great option at juiced odds.

Predicting an underdog to get a victory is challenging in itself. Attaching a winning margin to that selection makes it even harder.

But Miami has shown it can compete with the best of the best. Kansas City’s most recent performance against the 3-5 Broncos should inspire confidence when taking the Dolphins in this one. However, should Miami find a way to come out on top after four quarters, it likely won’t be by more than a touchdown.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay

Dolphins vs Chiefs SGP (+575)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Dolphins Moneyline (+105)
  • Over 50.5 (-110)
  • Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)
  • Travis Kelce Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I have put together a juiced four-leg Same Game Parlay to hopefully cash in on what should be an entertaining contest to get Sunday started.

We’ve already covered my reasoning for why the Dolphins can spring the upset and how the Over should be a consideration whenever they play. Taking the moneyline instead of the spread provides slightly better odds for a higher ROI.

The final two legs will simply bank on Tagovailoa and Kelce reaching their averages and slightly over achieving. Tagovailoa is averaging over two touchdowns per game in his eight games played and should have to continue throwing the ball if Miami is to have any chance of defeating the reigning champs.

For Kelce, 77.5 is slightly above his average for the year, but Mahomes and the Chiefs will likely count on his production to match that of their opposition. I expect Kelce to receive a ton of targets and come down with some big ones to hit the over.

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