The quest for a repeat Super Bowl Championship for the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend begins at home. They will host the Miami Dolphins, a team that has not won a playoff game since 2000.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have had an up-and-down season and enter the playoffs in a position they are not familiar with in recent times. They will not have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and will have to win road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl again.
Tyreek Hill returns to Kansas City for the second time this season, and it will be an AFC showdown this Saturday.
Let’s dive into the odds and best bets for this wildcard round matchup, and be sure to check out the rest of this weekend’s NFL Wild Card Predictions.
Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds
NFL odds used for this Miami vs Kansas City preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Jan. 10 at 3 p.m. E.T.
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-220) • Dolphins (+180)
- Spread: Chiefs -4.5 (-110) • Dolphins +4.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 44.5 (-110) • Under 44.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Chiefs 24.5, Dolphins 20
Dolphins vs Chiefs Predictions
Score Pick: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 17
The last time the Dolphins beat the Chiefs was in 2011, when Matt Moore was the quarterback for Miami. Moore was most recently the backup for Mahomes during the 2019-2020 season.
The Dolphins have struggled on the road during the winter months for the past two seasons. Tua Tagovailoa only has 10 wins in the months of December and January, and only three of those wins are on the road. Per ESPN Southwest Florida, the only outdoor game that Tua has won in the winter months was at Washington earlier this season.
Another interesting tidbit from ESPN Southwest Florida is that the Dolphins have lost 10 straight games when the kickoff temperature has been 40 degrees or colder. The temperature in Kansas City is projected to be near zero at kickoff, making it one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history.
The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 21-14 earlier this season in a defensive battle, with both QBs throwing for less than 200 yards. I like the Chiefs to win this game in a similar fashion.
Dolphins vs Chiefs Best Bets & Props
Under 44.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 units
The weather will be frigid in Kansas City, and I expect the two teams to focus on their running attacks in this contest. We’ve recently become accustomed to the high-flying Chiefs’ offense under Mahomes, but this is a strong defensive unit this season.
The Chiefs are second in the NFL this year, restricting their opponents to only 17.3 points per game. On the flip side, the Dolphins are the second-best-scoring team in the league, averaging 29.2 points per game this year.
12 of the Chiefs 17 games this year have gone under the team total. This will be a low-scoring game with both defenses making plays, which is why it is my NFL bet of the weekend.
Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.75 units
This is a different Chiefs team this season, and they have looked vulnerable. The offense is less dynamic than the past four years, but it is still Mahomes and Andy Reid in the playoffs.
They’ll be looking to make their fourth Super Bowl appearance in the past five years and win their third. Travis Kelce has been banged up this season but has now had over two weeks to rehab, and rookie WR Rashee Rice has come on of late as a reliable offensive weapon for Mahomes.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 239.5 Passing Yards (-127)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
Tagovailoa only had 193 yards passing in his previous visit to Kansas City this year on 34 attempts. The Chiefs defense will focus on Hill, forcing someone else on the Dolphins offense to step up.
We saw the Bills’ defense contain the Dolphins’ offense in the regular season finale, and if Jaylen Waddle is not at 100% for the game, their offense will be in trouble. I expect the Dolphins to rely on De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert (if he plays) in this game and reduce the number of times Tagovailoa will have to throw the ball.
Dolphins vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay
Dolphins vs Chiefs SGP (+330)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
- Under 49.5 Alt (-224)
- Chiefs (-225)
- Travis Kelce Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-127)
One of my favorite bets for this game is the under, so I added the alternate under 49.5 to the parlay for some breathing room. I expect the Chiefs to win this game at home and in the cold weather, so adding the Chiefs’ ML gets the parlay into plus odds.
The last leg is a pure value play, as Kelce’s receiving yards numbers are far too low for a player of his caliber. His recent struggles gives us a prop number of just 56.5, which is criminally low for one of the best postseason tight ends of all time.
The Dolphins just gave up seven catches for 84 yards to rookie TE Dalton Kincaid in their final regular season game, so their defense is also vulnerable to the position.
