Commanders vs Chiefs Predictions | Best Bets & Odds

Lance PattonPromotions Creator & Editor
Last Updated: Aug 16, 2022

The Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in Week 2 of the NFL preseason at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 20.

Patrick Mahomes is expected to start and play about a quarter of this game, which will be a big boost after he played just one series, a 72-yard touchdown drive, in last week’s loss to the Bears.

Kansas City jumped out to a 14-0 lead but didn’t score in the second half, and the Bears scored 19 unanswered. Kansas City turned the ball over twice in the second half and managed just 21 yards – fifteen of which came on a Dustin Crum scramble late in the fourth quarter.

Washington’s backups flourished in their preseason Week 1 loss, scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough as the Carolina Panthers kicked a game-winning field goal with 24 seconds remaining. Nevertheless, the Commanders moved the ball effectively, racking up 350 total yards at just over five yards per play.

Read below for my favorite Washington vs Kansas City best bets, predictions, and tips for this NFL preseason Week 2 matchup.

Commanders vs Chiefs Odds

The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites, per our NFL odds, which is indicative of Kansas City’s plan to play their starters for the first quarter.

The total for this game is currently tied for the highest for NFL preseason Week 2 and set at 42.5 points. Oddsmakers have adjusted, and the totals across the league are higher for two main reasons: starters are expected to play more snaps and the Over went 13-3 in Week 1.

Commanders vs Chiefs Implied Score

Chiefs 23, Commanders 19.5

Bookmakers expect the Chiefs to handle the Commanders, and the field goal and a hook line is a confident nod to Kansas City. That isn’t much of a surprise since Patrick Mahomes is expected to play the first quarter and the Chiefs are planning to play more starters as the new-look offense attempts to gel.

Commanders vs Chiefs Pick of the Day

Read more on this Commanders vs Chiefs bet below.

Commanders vs Chiefs Matchup

The NFL preseason is always tricky to predict, but we get some clarity in this game because Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are expected to play their starters for the first quarter. Granted, it is only the first quarter, but whenever Mahomes is on the field, the Chiefs will feel confident.

Shane Buechele played most of the snaps for the Chiefs in the first week of the preseason and was solid, going 12-for-19 with 99 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. However, the running game was ineffective, as Kansas City managed just 52 yards on 19 carries and their leading rusher was fourth-string QB Dustin Crum.

The Chiefs’ pass rush did manage to get home often in the first game, registering five sacks, including one from veteran Chris Jones, who played just six snaps. George Karlaftis and Leo Chenal, two rookies out of the Big Ten, played significant roles. Karlaftis had a third-down sack and Chenal led the team with seven tackles, two of which were for a loss.

Washington managed to move the ball effectively against the Panthers, but the two first-half turnovers were too much to overcome. Carson Wentz will likely play more in this game as he continues to adjust to the new offense. Additionally, the experience of Taylor Heinicke and the promise shown by Sam Howell in his NFL debut leaves plenty to be excited about beyond Wentz.

Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction

Chiefs 21, Commanders 18

Three is always a key number in the NFL, especially in the preseason, where games tend to be closer and lower scoring. The Commanders should be able to keep this game close and cover the spread.

Behind Patrick Mahomes and an offense expected to be among the best in the league, the Chiefs should grab an early lead with their starters in the game. While Kansas City is one of the preseason favorites in our Super Bowl odds, Washington’s win total is set at 7.5, and the talent discrepancy will show early.

The Commanders will be able to battle back, just as they did in Week 1 of the preseason, behind their depth at quarterback. All three Washington quarterbacks have shown glimpses of competence, whether it be Sam Howell leading two 65+ yard touchdown drives or Taylor Heinicke’s previous experience as a starter.

The Chiefs have enough depth to get the win, but with a field goal and the hook to cover, the Commanders can keep it close. Even if the Chiefs get off to an early lead, the Commanders can battle back as they did last week. If they can avoid the turnovers, they’ll have a chance to win this game late in the fourth quarter.

Commanders vs Chiefs Bet Tips

Kansas City failed to cover the spread in their preseason opener against the Bears despite taking a two-touchdown lead in the first half. The lack of offense in the second half helped this total stay Under the closing line of 38 total points. The Chiefs went 3-0 in the preseason last season.

Despite closing as a three-point favorite, the Commanders lost outright to the Panthers last week and are now 2-6 straight up over their last eight preseason games. The total went Over the closing Over/Under of 36 points. Washington has also lost its last ten games to the Chiefs, including the regular season.

Commanders vs Chiefs Best Bets

Commanders +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

We’re taking the points with Washington since the preseason generally produces low-scoring, close games. The Chiefs’ offense will get off to a hot start, but the depth at quarterback for the Commanders will be the difference.

Even with Mahomes playing the first quarter, expect him to get no more than three drives. The Chiefs’ reserves could not get anything going last week, and Washington’s defense has depth in the secondary. Kansas City’s inability to run the ball will be an issue here.

Washington battled back last week with two fourth-quarter touchdowns behind an excellent outing from Sam Howell. If Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz can perform even slightly better, the Commanders will be in a great spot to win or at least cover.

Take the points with Washington as your NFL pick of the day.


Lance Patton

Lance Patton is the Promotions Creator & Editor for The Game Day and also creates content for the NFL, college football, and college basketball. Before joining The Game Day, Lance did freelance work for a variety of sports betting websites as well as covering the Iowa Hawkeyes for FanSided.

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