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Chargers vs Patriots Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 30, 2023

We’ve got an interesting battle in Foxboro this weekend when the playoff-hopeful Los Angeles Chargers take on the worst team in the AFC, the New England Patriots.

This is an unfamiliar spot for Bill Belichick as his team is usually on the cusp of making their push for the playoffs entering December. The Patriots boast one of the best records in December at 129-97.

Let’s dive into this AFC matchup. Check out where the two teams stand in the latest NFL Power Rankings.

Chargers vs Patriots Odds

NFL odds used for this Los Angeles vs New England preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Nov.29 at 3 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Chargers (-267) • Patriots (+215)
  • Spread: Chargers -5.5 (-110) • Patriots +5.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 41 (-110) • Under 41 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Chargers 23.25, Patriots 17.75

Chargers vs Patriots Predictions

Score Pick: Chargers 21, Patriots 3

The Chargers are currently 4-7 and are two games behind the Colts for the final wildcard spot in the AFC playoffs. Every game here on out for the Chargers becomes a must-win, including this weekend at New England.

It was almost a ‘classic’ Chargers game on Monday night when they lost even when their defense did everything in their power to keep them in the game.

Officially, there is no ‘tanking’ in the NFL, but if anyone saw the Patriots’ loss against the New York Giants last Sunday, you would think differently. The Patriots are running a unique QB by committee, playing Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.

That is not a recipe for winning games when you have to use two quarterbacks, and I expect the Chargers to win comfortably this weekend. Austin Ekeler should have success on the ground, and Justin Herbert will be able to control this game.

Chargers vs Patriots Best Bets & Props

Under 41 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit(s)

Eight of the 11 games that both teams have played have gone under this season. The Patriots have also failed to score more than seven points in two straight games, and that’s the main reason this is my NFL bet of the day.

As I mentioned, the Patriots have always had success in December, so I don’t think the Chargers will run the score into the 30s. The Chargers are also seventh in the league with 36 sacks, so whichever QB is under center for the Patriots will have pressure all day long.

Chargers -5.5 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Despite the poor play this season, the Chargers are still a much better team than the Patriots this year. They have been unlucky at the end of games (story of the Chargers the last two decades) but are trending in a better direction than the Patriots.

The only bright spot for the Patriots is RB Rhamondre Stevenson, but the Chargers only allow 110.6 rushing yards per game, which is 14th in the league.

Back the visitors to pick up a decisive road victory in this contest.

Patriots Under 16.5 (+105)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

This number and the odds are astonishing for this bet because nothing the Patriots have done in the past month shows they can score at least 17 points. They are second-worst in the NFL this season in points per game, averaging only 13.5 points.

The Chargers’ defense is nothing special, but this is more of a bet against the Patriots’ offense. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe were poor against the Giants, so they don’t have an answer at the QB position.

Chargers vs Patriots Same Game Parlay

Chargers vs Patriots SGP (+174)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Chargers (-258)
  • Under 41 (-110)
  • Patriots Under 16.5 (+105)

The same game parlay for this contest is just a combination of my three favorite bets from the contest. Instead of taking the Chargers on the spread, I’ve added their ML to the parlay to play it a bit more safe.

I strongly believe that the Patriots’ offense won’t be able to muster a lot of points in this game, so I didn’t need to go with an alternate line on their total team points for the parlay.

I also expect both teams to rely on their run game in this contest, resulting in a slow pace of play that benefits the under 41.

Author

Ani Sridhar

Ani Sridhar is an NBA and soccer betting analyst at The Gameday as well as a producer at SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Residing in NY, but originally from Washington D.C and a University of Maryland alum, Ani is a long-time (and occasionally suffering) fan of all the Washington sports teams. He loves TV and movies, so just holler if you ever need someone to join your bar trivia team.

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