Chargers vs Chiefs Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Oct 18, 2023

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will renew their AFC West rivalry Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET) in Kansas City.

Following Thursday’s 19-8 victory over the Denver Broncos, Kansas City is again on the short list of Super Bowl contenders at 5-1. On the other hand, Los Angeles is just 2-3 after falling 20-17 to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday.

Who has the edge? Let’s dive into the odds for our prediction and best bets.

Chargers vs Chiefs Odds

NFL odds used for this Los Angeles vs Kansas City preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Chiefs (-245) • Chargers (+200)
  • Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-112) • Chargers +5.5 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 49 (-110) • Under 49 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Chiefs 27.25, Chargers 21.75

Chargers vs Chiefs Predictions

Score Pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 23

Winners of five in a row, the Chiefs look back to form after dropping their season opener. Patrick Mahomes is still the catalyst for the Chiefs’ Super Bowl hopes, but don’t overlook their defense. Through six games, Kansas City is second in average points allowed (14.7) and sixth in average yards allowed (284). They have yet to give up more than 21 points.

No stranger to close games, Los Angeles is good enough to keep pace with Kansas City. But the Chargers’ inability to close out one-score games is telling. That matters here.

Chargers vs Chiefs Best Bets & Props

Chargers +5.5 (-108)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Nobody seems to play to their competition quite like Los Angeles. All five of the Chargers’ games have been decided by one score. That they’re just 2-3 is a statement about Brandon Staley‘s coaching.

The Chargers are now 21-19 in three seasons under Staley but just 6-10 in games decided by three points or fewer. Both of last season’s losses to Kansas City came by a field goal.

As usual, Los Angeles may do just enough to lose. I’m taking the Chargers +5.5 as my NFL bet of the day.

Over 49 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Five of the last six matchups have gone Over this total, including both last season.

Although the Chiefs have yet to kick it into gear offensively, they’re still averaging a healthy 24.5 points per game. The Chargers have been a tick more explosive at 25.4 points per game.

Given the talent at quarterback, it’s no wonder this is expected to be a shootout. It’s the second-highest projected total at the moment behind the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles (52).

Chiefs by 1-13 Points (+120)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 units

Kansas City has played teams relatively close, except for its Week 3 blowout of the Chicago Bears. Its other five games have been decided by 11 points or fewer, including four by one score.

Need I say more about Los Angeles? Week in and week out, the Chargers seem to find themselves playing down to the wire. Look for that trend to continue here.

Chargers vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay

Chargers vs Chiefs SGP (+264)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Chargers +5.5 (-108)
  • Over 48.5 (-110)

Los Angeles remains highly competitive, but Mike Williams‘ season-ending ACL injury has eliminated much of its big-play capabilities. The Chargers are far too dependent on Keenan Allen at the moment.

That said, the Chargers have traditionally played Kansas City tight. This time around, it should be no different.

As for the total, 48.5 is a tad high. But I can’t bring myself to fade a pair of NFL MVP candidates in Mahomes and Justin Herbert.


Doug Bonjour

Doug covered college and prep sports in Connecticut for more than a decade, including stints as the UConn women’s basketball and UConn football beat reporter for Hearst Connecticut Media. During his time reporting on the 11-time national champion Huskies, he covered three NCAA Final Fours. He also has written for the Associated Press and New York Times.

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