With only three weeks left in the regular season, we are getting closer to the playoffs. Even though four of the six spots have been clinched, the remaining games are still consequential for the playoff seeding and final playoff seed.
Saskatchewan is only 0.5 games ahead of Hamilton for the last spot. Additionally, Montreal has yet to clinch home-field advantage for the first round, and BC and Calgary are tied for second place in the West.
Below, read about my best CFL bets for Week 19.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 43-41, +1.3% Return on Investment, +3.9% Closing Line Value
All CFL odds are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 11, at 2 p.m. ET at the CFL sportsbooks listed.
Montreal vs Ottawa Best Bet
Under 47.5 Points (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: .75 Units
Last week, I bet on the Under in the Montreal vs Ottawa game at 49.5 points, and it hit. This week, the total has been set at 47.5 points, and I am riding with the Under again.
If Montreal wins this week, they clinch home-field advantage for the first round of the playoffs. If Ottawa wins, they are still unlikely to make the playoffs.
Even with the RedBlacks seemingly having nothing to play for, they have a decent defense to complement a mediocre offense. To me, that always screams “Under," particularly when the total is set close to the average combined points scored per game.
Ottawa won 24-18 last week. It is unlikely that the RedBlacks can replicate that offensive performance, but limiting Montreal to 18 points was impressive.
The Under is the best bet this week, and I would play it to 46 points.
Hamilton vs Calgary Best Bets
Hamilton +7.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.75 Units
There is no argument from me on who should be favored this weekend between Hamilton and Calgary. The Tiger-Cats are 5-10 and the Stampeders are 10-5.
Even though the Stamps should be favored at home, 7.5 points in the CFL is too much to lay for most home favorites. This is particularly the case this week, as Hamilton is only 0.5 games out of the playoffs.
If the Tiger-Cats pull off the big upset this weekend, they could still sneak into the playoffs, where they would only need to win three games to earn the Grey Cup. That is why Hamilton should fight to the bitter end this weekend against Calgary.
42.7% of CFL games are decided by seven points or less. When you consider the low-scoring nature of the three-down league, it makes it harder for teams to rout their opponents. Additionally, the Ti-Cats have played well over their last three games.
Hamilton beat Saskatchewan last week 18-14, lost to Montreal by only a touchdown on the road, and beat Grey Cup favorite Winnipeg 48-31. They can win this week, but I would rather bet on them covering a steep spread.
Toronto vs Edmonton Best Bet
Toronto -4.5 (-110) at FanDuel
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Edmonton is not regarded as the worst team in the league (Ottawa is), but based on the data and the eye test, I believe that they clearly are.
Edmonton has an average scoring margin of -13.94 points, which by far is the worst in Canada. Even Ottawa has a better average scoring margin (-5.4 points), and it’s not close.
If a team loses each game by an average of almost two touchdowns, why is the opposing team favored by only 4.5 points?
Toronto is the first-place team in the East Division and is the only East team that has been able to hang with tough West Division teams this season. They do have the disadvantage of playing on the road against an Edmonton team that is leading the CFL in attendance, but they should win by at least a touchdown.
At -4.5, the Argos should cover, and I would bet them up -7 (-105).
Winnipeg vs BC Best Bet
Winnipeg -1 (-110) at FanDuel
WAGER: 2 Units
The best CFL game this weekend is Saturday at 10 p.m. Even though I will have been awake for the Saturday early afternoon CFB games, I am staying up for the Winnipeg vs BC game.
Winnipeg has been the best CFL team this season. Not only do they have a 14-2 record, but they lead the league in points scored and allowed. The Blue Bombers are also the two-time defending Grey Cup champions.
The biggest strength of Winnipeg is its defense, which can shut anyone down. My only worry about the defense is that in games where the Blue Bombers score a lot of points behind quarterback Zach Collaros, their defense tends to allow more points than in close games. This is why I am staying away from the Under.
Rather than back the Over, the best play is on Winnipeg to cover as only a 1-point favorite. BC is still relying on their new backup quarterback Vernon Adams Jr., who is only slightly less mediocre with BC than he was with Montreal earlier this season.
I like Winnipeg a lot this weekend, and they should win by at least a touchdown.
