With four weeks left in the regular season, we are getting closer to the playoffs. Even though the playoff field is basically set, the seeding is still up for grabs.
While Winnipeg is close to clinching the first-place seed in the West, the BC Lions are ahead of the Calgary Stampeders by only half a game in the standings for the second seed.
Montreal has a comfortable lead for second place in the East, and with a win against Ottawa this weekend, they can clinch the seed and home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Below, read about my best CFL bets for Week 18.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 40-40, +0.5% Return on Investment, +3.7% Closing Line Value
All CFL odds are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 4, at 10 a.m. ET at the CFL sportsbooks listed.
Saskatchewan vs Hamilton Best Bet
UNDER 49.5 Points (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
I can’t figure out who is going to win Friday night’s CFL game. Both the Riders and the Ti-Cats have underperformed this season. While I am tempted to back Saskatchewan at +2.5, the best play in this game is the Under.
Both teams have gotten underwhelming play from the quarterback position. Riders quarterback Cody Fajardo has not been aggressive this season, and Hamilton’s Dane Evans has mostly been timid.
Fajardo is averaging only 8.3 yards per passing attempt, while Evans is averaging 8.4. Additionally, both have almost as many interceptions as passing touchdowns this season.
In terms of defensive talent, both teams have underperformed this season. If either defense can prevent the opposing quarterback from firing, the Under should hit at 49.5 points. If the total stays at 48.5 or more points, the Under is worth a play.
BC vs Toronto Best Bet
Toronto +1 (-115) at PointsBet Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
Both BC and Toronto are in close races for playoff seeding.
The Lions are only half a game ahead of Calgary for second in the West, which would give them home-field advantage in the first round. The Argos are in first place in the East but are only one game ahead of Montreal.
This weekend’s game could determine if Toronto gets a first-round bye and/or if BC gets to play at home in the first round of the playoffs.
Based on Toronto playing at home (even in front of the smallest crowds in the CFL) and having better quarterback play, I like them as 1-point underdogs on Saturday.
Since losing QB Nathan Rourke to injury last month, the BC Lions have not been as dominant. Replacing Rourke has been dual-threat quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. He’s better than the other options on the roster, but his play has been mediocre thus far.
In his first two starts with BC, Adams didn’t throw a single passing touchdown in 56 passing attempts. Last week, Adams had a big game against Ottawa, but it’s hard to see him replicating that performance against Toronto.
Toronto has been decent this year, and if they contain Adams, they should win as a small underdog.
Edmonton vs Winnipeg Best Bet
UNDER 50.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
This weekend’s best bet comes in what should be a low-scoring lopsided snoozefest between the best CFL team (Winnipeg) and the worst (Edmonton). The Blue Bombers are favored by 13.5 points, which is merited.
Despite Winnipeg being appropriately favored, the point total has been set too high at 50.5 points.
Winnipeg has the best defense in the league and a strong offense. Edmonton has the worst defense in the league, and one of the worst offenses. If this game is close, the Blue Bombers might play more aggressively on offense, but if they are up for most of the game, they are likely to rely more on their running game.
In their 31-13 win against Saskatchewan last week, Winnipeg gave running back Brady Oliveira 15 carries. In their lone meeting of the season between both teams, Winnipeg won 24-10 after having more running than passing plays. This is rare in the pass-heavy CFL.
With Winnipeg likely to play a conservative game with a big lead, we should see the Under hit. I would bet it down to 48 points.
Ottawa vs Montreal Best Bet
UNDER 49.5 Points (-110) at BetRivers
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Montreal Alouettes host the Ottawa Redblacks this coming Monday. If Montreal wins, they clinch home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs and remain in contention for the first seed in the East. If Ottawa wins, they still won’t make the playoffs.
The Redblacks fired their head coach Paul LaPolice after last week’s loss. It is easy to think of Ottawa as a pushover, but their defense has been decent this season.
Even though there are times when Ottawa has gotten crushed, they have had occasional games where they have held their opponents to fewer than 20 points. When you combine their defense with arguably the league’s worst QB in Nick Arbuckle, Ottawa has been an Under factory this season.
Montreal has recently had strong defensive performances and average ones on offense. If the Alouettes can contain Arbuckle, I suspect that they will play conservatively with a short passing game and an aggressive running attack.
At 49.5 points, the total should be about a field goal lower and I would take the Under up to 48 points.
