It’s a quiet CFL weekend as we inch closer to the CFL Playoffs. With three teams having a bye, we only have three games on tap.
For each of those three games, there are three clear favorites: Saskatchewan, Winnipeg, and Calgary. Even though Winnipeg and Calgary are heavy favorites, these games have playoff implications for their opponents. Hamilton and BC are fighting for the 2-seeds in their respective divisions.
Below, read about my best CFL bets for Week 15.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 34-31, +1.3% Return on Investment, +3.5% Closing Line Value
All CFL odds are current as of Tuesday, Sept. 13, at 12 P.M. ET, at the CFL sportsbooks listed.
Edmonton vs Saskatchewan Best Bet
Over 50.5 Points (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
Saskatchewan should easily beat Edmonton at home and the odds properly reflect this. The Roughriders have beaten the Elks in both of their previous games and deserve to be 9.5-point favorites.
After last week’s loss against Winnipeg, Saskatchewan’s defense got exposed. The Riders allowed 54 points against the Blue Bombers. In that game, Winnipeg’s quarterback Zach Collaros completed 84% of his passes, and threw for 273 passing yards, and four passing touchdowns.
Saskatchewan’s strength as a team is their defense, and giving up that many points shows that they are vulnerable.
Edmonton’s defense is the worst in the league, as they allow 34.1 points per game. Their offense is weak as well, but the Over should hit as Saskatchewan’s offense has improved with quarterback Cody Fajardo managing his knee injury well the last few weeks.
Winnipeg vs Hamilton Best Bet
Under 46.5 Points (-115) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The average Winnipeg game has 47.8 combined points scored, and the average Hamilton game has 48.4 point scored. This is only slightly higher than the point total, yet I like the Under in the 2021 Grey Cup Championship rematch this weekend.
In their lone game so far this season, Winnipeg won 26-12. Hamilton didn’t score a single touchdown and couldn’t establish the run. This week, I don’t see the Tiger-Cats having more success.
One reason why Hamilton should have trouble is that their quarterback situation is unclear. Dane Evans, who started off the season as the starting quarterback, was the third-string quarterback in Hamilton’s last game.
After being unsatisfied with the two quarterbacks ahead of him on the depth chart, Hamilton has signaled that Evans will get the start this week. The combination of the Tiger-Cats unwillingness to trust Evans and Winnipeg’s strong defense make the Under look like a great play.
Another reason why the Under is worth a look is that Hamilton’s defense, which has been hurt by injuries, has slowly been getting their key players back onto the field. Even at 46.5 points, I like the Under and I would bet it up to 45 points.
BC vs Calgary Best Bets
Calgary -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Under 53 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit each
The Week 15 finale between the BC Lions and Calgary Stampeders will not only be the best game of the week, but also the best betting game.
BC is half a game ahead of Calgary in the West Division standings for the 2-seed in the playoffs. If BC has the 2-seed then they will have homefield advantage in the first round against the 3-seed, which is currently Calgary.
Both teams are using different quarterbacks than they used to start the season. BC started off the season with Nathan Rourke, who was clearly the best CFL quarterback this year until he was sidelined with a foot injury. Calgary started the season with veteran Bo Levi Mitchell, who was finally benched in favor of Jake Maier.
Maier has been a huge improvement over Mitchell, completing 77.6% of his passes with six passing touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.
Nathan Rourke’s replacements haven’t fared well, so BC traded for former Montreal quarterback Vernon Adams. Unfortunately, Adams is arguably a worse quarterback than the other backups on the Lions roster.
With a strong BC defense, which is the second-best in the league, and a clear edge in quarterbacks, Calgary should cover and the total should go Under. I would bet Calgary up to -6.5 and the Under up to 50 points.
