After a long CFL season that started in June, it all ends this Sunday with the Grey Cup.
Both Winnipeg and Toronto were the favorites to win their divisions, and they delivered. Now the Blue Bombers are nearly a touchdown favorite to win the championship.
Winnipeg finished the regular season with a league-leading 15-3 record. Toronto had an 11-7 regular season record which, like Winnipeg, was good enough to have a first-round playoff bye.
Both teams won their playoff games by only one possession, and this weekend we might see the same thing. Below, check out my Grey Cup best bets.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 53-51, +0.3% Return on Investment, +3% Closing Line Value
All odds for these Grey Cup best bets are current as of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 15, at the CFL sportsbooks listed.
CFL Grey Cup Prediction
Winnipeg 27, Toronto 18
Both CFL games last weekend were exciting and both winners had large leads that they almost gave up.
Toronto was up 21-3 with nine minutes left in the second quarter against Montreal in the East Division Final. Then, the Argos’ lead began to slip to the point where Montreal was down only 24-21 after the beginning of the second half.
The Argos ended up beating Montreal 34-27, but they looked like a team that should struggle against Winnipeg.
The Blue Bombers had a tough matchup against BC, who arguably was the second-best CFL team this year. Both Winnipeg and BC were CFL Grey Cup odds favorites for most of the season.
Winnipeg started off strong with a 19-8 lead at halftime, then BC started to come back in the second half.
Lions quarterback Nathan Rourke put together a strong performance in the fourth quarter, but ultimately, he couldn’t break through Winnipeg’s defense. The Blue Bombers constantly put pressure on Rourke, which led to many incompletions and a couple of interceptions.
Altogether, Rourke was held to only a 54.1% completion percentage, one passing touchdown, and no rushing touchdowns. Rourke might have had 300 passing yards, but that is because he was throwing the ball all game. If Winnipeg can shut down the CFL’s best quarterback, I don’t think that Toronto will fare much better.
The Argos are led by quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who has a penchant of throwing for many yards, but either turning over the ball or not getting the ball into the end zone. Bethel-Thompson averaged a 66.8% completion percentage, 262.8 passing yards, but only 1.3 passing touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions during the regular season this year.
Winnipeg is going to target Toronto’s offensive line to force Bethel-Thompson to throw too early. This will result in a combination of interceptions and sacks. That is why Winnipeg should win a low-scoring game this weekend, even if their quarterback Zach Collaros is out due to his ankle injury.
CFL Grey Cup Best Bets
Winnipeg Moneyline (-230) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As a five-to-six-point favorite, I am tempted to back the Winnipeg spread, but I believe there is more value on their moneyline. If Collaros is out or not playing at 100%, Winnipeg could end up winning by only about a field goal.
Of CFL games, 36.8% are decided by six points or less. With these CFL playoff games being competitive, I would rather have my money on Winnipeg winning outright versus covering the spread.
Under 48 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
With Winnipeg having a great defense and uncertainty at the quarterback position, we should see the point total go Under 48 points. Based on what Winnipeg did to Nathan Rourke, I think they will do an even better job against McLeod Bethel-Thompson.
Once Winnipeg gets a lead, I believe that they are likely to lean on their running backs to avoid relying on an injured Zach Collaros or one of his backups. This will cause Winnipeg to bleed time off the clock which should help the Under hit.