What a difference a few months makes.
After being the last undefeated team in the league just two months ago, the Eagles (11-6) have limped into the playoffs and will have to go on the road for this NFC Wildcard game against a Buccaneers (9-8) team that many had left for dead after a 3-5 start.
With a date with the San Francisco 49ers as a reward, let’s take a look at these NFL Wild Card odds and see if we can find some betting value as the fifth-seeded Eagles visit the fourth-seeded Buccaneers on Monday night.
Eagles vs Buccaneers Odds
NFL odds used for this Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, January 9, at 12:00 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Eagles (-148) • Buccaneers (+124)
- Spread: Eagles -3 (+100) • Buccaneers +3 (-120)
- Total Points: Over 44 (-110) • Under 44 (-110)
- Implied Score: Eagles 23.5, Buccaneers 20.5
Eagles vs Buccaneers Predictions
Score Pick: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 20
This game is genuinely a tale of two cities as the Eagles have lost five of their last six while the Buccaneers have done the exact opposite and enter the playoffs, having won five of their last six.
The Eagles are dealing with some key injuries, as Jalen Hurts is dealing with a finger injury, and A.J. Brown is dealing with a knee injury. On the other hand, the Buccaneers are relatively unaffected by injuries leading into this matchup.
So why am I picking the Eagles?! I can’t completely throw the (objectively there) talent gap between these two teams out the window, and I also can’t completely ignore their records and pedigree.
Despite having the home game due to being the NFC South champion, the Buccaneers still have a worse record than the Eagles. And they got there by playing far inferior divisional opponents than the Eagles.
This game will be closer than we all would have predicted two months ago, but I still think the Eagles are too good of a team to suffer the indignity of a first-round loss after making the Super Bowl a year ago.
Eagles vs Buccaneers Best Bets & Props
Eagles -3 (+100)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 unit(s)
Based on these odds, Vegas would have this game as something like Eagles -6 if it was being played in Philadelphia. And while I want to respect the Buccaneers being at home (and their recent play), they were only 4-4 at home this year (while the Eagles were 5-4 on the road), so I’m not sure we’re looking at that much of a home field advantage.
With Hurts and Brown looking like they’ll be able to play, the Eagles will have a full arsenal of weapons to help them outpace a Buccaneers offense that only scored 20.5 points per game this year (a total that puts them in the bottom half of the league).
I’d like this bet more at 2.5, but the +100 odds are good enough to have me locking them in for two units as my NFL bet of the day.
Over 44 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
It doesn’t exactly work like this, but these two teams are averaging a combined 46 points per game this season. They’re also allowing a combined 44.3 points per game this season.
While defense usually tightens up in the playoffs, the Eagles defense has gotten progressively worse over the last month-plus and has allowed at least 27 points in six of their last seven games. And while the Bucs have been winning games, they’re still allowing almost 20 points per game (and gave up 25 to the Eagles back in Week 3).
It might be close (isn’t it always?), but I’m banging the over here.
Buccaneers Under 19.5 (+100)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
I know I predicted the Buccaneers to score 20 points, but the odds for under 19.5 look nice here at +100 compared to -135 for under 20.5 points.
This bet is a little riskier because the Eagles don’t look like they can stop a high school offense right now. Still, the Buccaneers recent string of wins only includes one playoff team (the Packers), and they’ve only put up 22 total points in their last two games – including just nine against the league-worst Panthers last week.
There’s value to be had here.
Eagles vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay
Eagles vs Buccaneers SGP (+525)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
- Eagles -2.5 (-132)
- Over 44 (-110)
- Buccaneers Under 20.5 (-135)
I alluded to liking the Eagles better at -2.5, so I went with the alternate spread here while also bumping up the Buccaneers’ team total to under 20.5. Combining those two things with the over (which we already covered) gives us some really nice SGP odds of +525.
It’s worth noting you can get up to +700 if you just go with Eagles -3 and the Bucs team total under 19.5, but I like this bet well enough at +525 to lock it in for one unit.
