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Steelers vs Bills Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Jan 10, 2024

The Pittsburgh Steelers miraculously find themselves preparing for a Super Wild Card Weekend matchup with the Buffalo Bills.

Pittsburgh managed to win its last three games after losing three straight to start December. Meanwhile, Buffalo enters the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league.

Sean McDermott’s squad sits as the biggest favorite to defeat its opponent, according to the NFL wild-card odds.

Can the Steelers pull off an upset and win their first playoff game since 2017? Let’s take a look at our Steelers vs Bills odds, predictions, and best bets.

Steelers vs Bills Odds

NFL odds used for this Pittsburgh vs Buffalo preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Jan. 9 at 5 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Bills (-500) • Steelers (+380)
  • Spread: Bills -10 (-108) • Steelers +10 (-112)
  • Total Points: Over 36 (-112) • Under 36 (-108)
  • Implied Score: Bills 23, Steelers 13

Steelers vs Bills Predictions

Score Pick: Bills 27, Steelers 23

The Bills won their last five games in a row, including a Week 18 victory over the Miami Dolphins that crowned Buffalo kings of the AFC East yet again.

After starting the season 5-5, many lost hope in Josh Allen and the Bills. Miami started the season on fire, and few believed Buffalo could win the AFC East or even secure a playoff spot in the more competitive conference.

Somehow, some way, McDermott’s squad now finds itself in a very familiar situation. The Bills managed to win their division for the fourth consecutive season and will now play the seventh-seeded Steelers with a chance of advancing to the divisional round.

The quarterback play of Allen will be pivotal against a squad with the second-highest turnover differential this season (+11). The 27-year-old finished the regular season with the second-most interceptions (18), including two last week to a depleted Dolphins secondary.

Luckily for Allen and the Buffalo offense, Steelers’ Defensive Player of the Year candidate and NFL sack leader T.J. Watt has already been ruled out for this contest. The former DPOY sprained his MCL during Pittsburgh’s Week 18 victory against the Baltimore Ravens.

In the final week of the regular season, the Steelers received some help from the Tennessee Titans, who defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars and clinched the seventh seed for Mike Tomlin’s squad in the process.

Luckily, Tomlin’s secondary seems to be receiving some major reinforcements, with All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick expected to play after missing the last three games with a knee injury.

Additionally, safety Damontae Kazee has been granted permission to return to the squad after being suspended indefinitely following a hit on a defenseless receiver back in Week 15.

Having some starters back in the secondary will be key if Pittsburgh wants to keep this game close. Apart from his two interceptions last week, Allen played a nearly perfect game while completing 30 of 38 passes for 359 yards and two touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback also rushed 15 times for 67 yards.

Buffalo could be without WR2 Gabe Davis, who missed last week with a PCL strain. However, backup wide receiver Khalil Shakir stepped up big time, finishing with six receptions for 105 yards.

The Steelers will need yet another big performance from third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph in order to pull off this upset. Rudolph led Pittsburgh to the final three wins of the regular season and has now been blessed with the starter title for however many games the Steelers have left.

The 28-year-old has played well in his three starts but has also seen major contributions from Najee Harris, who finished the last three games with totals of 312 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

The improved Pittsburgh offense has a chance to keep things close, but Allen and the Bills will simply be too much to handle.

Buffalo made key plays against Miami when it needed to most, and that will happen again here.

Steelers vs Bills Best Bets & Props

Steelers +10 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

While Buffalo is arguably the hottest team entering the playoffs, not all of the five straight wins by the AFC East champs were pretty.

Of those five wins, just one saw Buffalo blow out its opponent, with the other four ending with an average margin of just 4.5 points. With how good the new and improved Steelers offense has looked over the past three weeks, Tomlin’s squad can keep things close.

Establishing the run game will be crucial for Pittsburgh to have any chance of covering. In each of the three wins, the dynamic combination of Harris and Jaylen Warren helped open up things for Rudolph to get playmakers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens involved.

The Steelers will continue to follow the formula that got them here, and that’s why Steelers +10 is my NFL bet of the day.

Over 36 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 units

The sportsbooks are predicting a relatively low-scoring affair when these teams meet on Sunday afternoon.

Weather conditions are likely to blame for the low total, with temperatures expected to reach below 20 degrees Fahrenheit during the game.

While both teams may play conservatively as a result of the expected wind and snow, 39 still feels low for two squads that averaged over 20 points per game during respective win streaks to close out the season.

As players become accustomed to their environment, this game will open up and finish with a decent amount of scoring on both sides.

Bills Score 21-30 (+150)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Getting Buffalo to score within this nine-point band at +150 is amazing value. The Bills have now finished within this margin for three straight games, and it’s hard to see them scoring more with the weather forecast for Sunday’s game.

The 21-30 band provides ample room for a Bills offensive masterclass, but it also accounts for the fact that Pittsburgh’s defense could hold up fairly well.

Steelers vs Bills Same-Game Parlay

Steelers vs Bills SGP (+350)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Steelers +14.5 (-215)
  • Najee Harris 50+ Rushing Yards (-192)
  • James Cook 50+ Rushing Yards (-230)
  • Josh Allen 25+ Rushing Yards (-310)

Switching over to FanDuel Sportsbook, I cooked up a four-leg +350 Steelers vs Bills same-game parlay.

We will be utilizing FanDuel’s alternate selections for each leg to combine four likely scenarios while still receiving favorable odds.

With the contest set to be played under difficult weather conditions, expect a heavy ground presence from both squads.

Harris has surpassed 50 yards in three straight games while averaging over four yards a carry. If Harris is to eclipse 50 yards in this contest, Steelers +14.5 is likely also in play. We were able to get an additional 4.5 points onto the set 10-point spread to give Pittsburgh even more leeway.

For Buffalo, both James Cook and Allen usually share the brunt of the load in the ground game. Cook had a rough outing last week, but the 24-year-old finished fourth in the league in rushing yards this season and managed to surpass 50 yards in three of the last five games.

Allen has made a living off of creating with his legs. While often criticized for decision-making and accuracy, it is hard to deny that Allen isn’t one of the best running quarterbacks in the league.

He managed to surpass 25 yards on the ground in three of the last five games, coming up just a yard short in one of them.

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