After winning their third AFC East crown in as many years, the Buffalo Bills will begin their quest for an elusive Super Bowl title when they welcome the division rival Dolphins to Orchard Park on Sunday, Jan. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET.
The Bills treated their fans to an emotional 35-23 victory over New England in Week 18, with Nyheim Hines returning a pair of kickoffs — including the opening one — for touchdowns in their first action since Damar Hamlin‘s injury in Cincinnati.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins squeaked past the Jets 11-6 on Sunday in an ugly season finale, but the result — coupled with Buffalo’s win over New England — was enough to ensure Miami would play its first postseason game since January 2017.
Let’s dig into the latest odds and pick out our Miami vs Buffalo best bets for this wild-card round showdown.
Dolphins vs Bills Odds
The Bills have opened up as 10.5-point home favorites at Caesars Sportsbook, which is a sign of the uncertainty surrounding the Dolphins’ quarterback situation.
Rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson started the Week 18 win, with Tua Tagovailoa still in concussion protocol and Teddy Bridgewater nursing an injured finger on his throwing hand.
These odds are clearly expecting one of Thompson or Bridgewater to start, as Miami played Buffalo close in two regular-season meetings with a healthy Tagovailoa.
Dolphins vs Bills Implied Totals
Bills 27, Dolphins 16.5
With the Over/Under sitting at 43.5 total points, oddsmakers are expecting the Bills win a relatively low-scoring contest pretty comfortably.
Buffalo is projected to fall just short of its season scoring average (28.4 points per game), while Miami is expected to struggle on offense once again without Tagovailoa.
Dolphins vs Bills Pick of the Day
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Dolphins vs Bills Prediction
Bills 31, Dolphins 13
The Bills and Dolphins split their regular-season series, with both teams winning at home by a field goal or less. However, this game will likely look a lot different than those previous matchups.
For one, the expected absence of Tagovailoa limits the explosiveness of an offense that predominantly runs through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The latter had 100-plus receiving yards in both outings against Buffalo this season and Hill is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.
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Without a quarterback to get the ball in their hands consistently, Mike McDaniel will likely try to take a more balanced approach and feed Jeff Wilson Jr., who will spearhead the backfield if Raheem Mostert (broken finger) can’t go. He should have some success, but Buffalo can counter by loading up the box and forcing Thompson or Bridgewater to beat them.
When the Bills have the ball, they shouldn’t meet too much resistance. Buffalo racked up 943 total yards over two games against the Dolphins, with Josh Allen throwing for 704 yards and six touchdowns. After torching New England last week, Allen should have his way with this Miami secondary.
I don’t envision the Dolphins being able to keep up, leading to another big divisional win on Wild Card Weekend for the Bills.
Dolphins vs Bills Bet Tips
Here are a few Dolphins vs Bills betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- Buffalo finished the regular season 8-7-1 against the spread, while Miami finished with a 9-8 ATS record.
- Unders went 10-6 in Bills’ games this year and 9-8 in Dolphins’ games.
- Buffalo was 4-3 ATS as a home favorite this year, while Miami was 4-1 as the road underdog.
Dolphins vs Bills Best Bets
Bills -10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Unless Tagovailoa is surprisingly cleared, I don’t see how the Dolphins keep this game close.
Buffalo got things rolling in all three phases last week and should be able to carry that momentum over here. The special teams and defense should set up some short fields for Allen and co. to work with, leading to plenty of scoring opportunities.
Want to bet on the Bills? Check out the best NY sportsbooks.
Over 43.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
In case you forgot, the Bills covered this number on their own last year in their wild-card matchup against the Patriots, a 47-17 rout.
They’ll likely have to do a lot of the heavy lifting for the Over to hit once again, but Miami has enough talented playmakers to contribute something to the total, especially if there is a lot of garbage time.
Soon you will be able to bet on the Dolphins with these Florida sportsbooks.