Bills vs Dolphins Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Jan 3, 2024

The battle for the AFC East culminates with a showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins.

Buffalo is looking to win its fifth straight and sweep the season series against the Dolphins after defeating Miami 48-20 at Bills Stadium in Week 4.

Miami suffered its worst defeat of the season to the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens last week. The Dolphins gave up 56 points and now need a victory at home to avoid moving into a wild-card spot.

Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 18 Odds and our best bets and predictions for Bills vs Dolphins.

Bills vs Dolphins Odds

NFL odds used for this Buffalo vs Miami preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Jan. 2 at 10 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Bills (-166) • Dolphins (+140)
  • Spread: Bills -3 (-112) • Dolphins +3 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 50 (-110) • Under 50 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Bills 26.5, Dolphins 23.5

Bills vs Dolphins Predictions

Score Pick: Dolphins 28, Bills 27

After looking to have the division all but won, Miami somehow finds itself playing for the top spot in the AFC East in the final week of the regular season.

They will, of course, be up against the inevitable Buffalo Bills, who have caused the Dolphins so much trouble over the past few years.

Miami and Buffalo appeared to be on completely opposite trajectories after a mediocre start to the season for Josh Allen and the Bills. A 37-34 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 had Buffalo at 6-6 on the season and not a lock to make the postseason.

However, after coaching changes and multiple important victories, the Bills now find themselves with a shot at stealing the AFC East once again. Unfortunately for them, they will be up against one of, if not the most potent offenses at home this season.

Mike McDaniel’s squad will have the luxury of playing in front of a home crowd at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami has been eight points better on offense when playing in front of Phin Nation, and it has also allowed nearly 13 points fewer on defense.

The Dolphins could also be receiving major reinforcements on the offensive side of the ball with Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle both listed as questionable after missing last week’s game.

Mostert leads the league in rushing touchdowns with 18, and the Dolphins will need all the firepower they can get against a Buffalo defense that has played much better of late.

Despite missing key players, Buffalo’s defense has been one of the best at getting to the quarterback and forcing turnovers during its four-game win streak. Miami has been relatively good at not turning the ball over this season, but three last week dug the Dolphins into a deep hole.

On the defensive side of the ball, Miami can do just enough to win this game. The Dolphins will likely be without former All-Pro corner Xavien Howard, who is doubtful with a foot injury suffered against the Ravens.

McDaniel’s side also lost two-time Pro Bowler and sack leader Bradley Chubb, who tore his ACL late in the game last Sunday.

Chubb and Howard are just two of the several stars on Miami’s defense who have fallen victim to injury late in the season.

However, Jalen Ramsey, Christian Wilkins and Co. can do just enough to stop a Buffalo offense that has been somewhat underwhelming despite winning games.

Allen has thrown for under 300 yards in each of the Bills’ four-straight victories, with three interceptions and just three touchdowns through the air in that time.

Where Sean McDermott’s offense has done the brunt of its damage has been on the ground with James Cook, Latavius Murray, and Allen combining for eight rushing touchdowns in that same span.

If Miami can focus on slowing down the run game, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and the rest of McDaniel’s weapons can inch out a victory and secure the AFC East for the first time since 2008.

Bills vs Dolphins Best Bets & Props

Dolphins +3 (-108)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

I am picking Miami to not only cover the three-point spread, but to also win outright and win the AFC East.

The Dolphins have been one of the best teams at home this season and are lucky to have a chance to win the division on their home field. Miami’s 7-1 record at Hard Rock Stadium suggests McDaniel’s squad can find a way to keep this one close and steal a victory.

Having Mostert and Waddle back will be huge for this offense that became nearly one-dimensional with just Hill to focus on.

Tagovailoa has a history of coming up in big moments before, and for that reason, Dolphins +3 is my NFL bet of the day.

Over 50 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 units

A high-scoring affair is all but guaranteed whenever these teams match up. Including last year’s wild-card meeting, these teams have now surpassed this 50-point total in three straight contests.

Buffalo’s largest scoring output of the regular season came in its Week 4 48-20 victory over Miami. The Bills have scored 20 or more in each of their last four games but have not surpassed 50 in any of them.

The Dolphins are averaging more points per game than any team in the league with 30.1. That number is up to 34.1 at home, good for the third-best of any team.

While Buffalo’s defense has looked much better than it did at the beginning of the season, the Bills have now given up over 20 points in back-to-back weeks to back up quarterbacks.

If Miami’s offense can get back on track, I can see this Over cashing fairly easily.

Dolphins to Win by 1-6 (+380)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

For a riskier play, I like Dolphins to win by 1-6, which has some relatively juiced odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Depending on your unit size, getting Miami to win by 1-6 could prove to be very profitable. There is no denying Buffalo is the much hotter team entering this game, but having Miami as underdogs in a stadium where they’ve been virtually unbeatable seems harsh.

A Miami win is surely a risk to predict, but if they are to get it done, it will be within 1-6 points.

Bills vs Dolphins Same-Game Parlay

Bills vs Dolphins SGP (+232)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Bills Over 22.5 (-238)
  • Dolphins Over 22.5 (-130)
  • Bills +3 (-275)
  • Over 47.5 (-147)

I decided to play things safe with this four-leg Bills vs Dolphins same-game parlay. Each of our four selections has relatively low odds, but adding them together still leaves room for profit and brings the parlay to +232.

To keep things uniform, I went with both Miami and Buffalo to score Over 22.5, which is likely to happen judging by the odds DraftKings has on each of these selections.

Moving into the spread, I utilized DraftKings’ alternates section to get Buffalo at +3, leaving room for a tight Dolphins win.

Finally, I decided to go with the lower point total at just 47.5, as these teams should reach this with no problem.

We did sacrifice odds when selecting these lower alternates, so feel free to edit within a close range as there is still room for movement on each of these legs.

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