A showdown of undefeated AFC East rivals marks one of the NFL Week 3 highlights and perhaps one of the toughest games to bet.
Coming off a dazzling six-touchdown day from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in their comeback win at the Baltimore Ravens, the Miami Dolphins (2-0) play one of their most important games of the year in Week 3, hosting the Buffalo Bills.
QB Josh Allen delivered a jaw-dropping performance of his own (317 passing yards, four touchdowns) in Buffalo’s 41-7 thumping of the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football.
Have the Dolphins established themselves as a true AFC contender that can compete in the stratosphere of arguably the league’s favorite to win the Super Bowl?
Before we watch this crucial matchup, see where you can find value with these Buffalo vs Miami betting tips.
Bills vs Dolphins Odds
The books label the ‘Phins as a decently sized home underdog, but this mark is justified against the Bills.
Bills vs Dolphins Implied Totals
Bills 29.25, Dolphins 23.75
Caesars Sportsbook’s implied score (Bills -5.5 with a 52 total) doesn’t lend too much credence to Miami’s 42-point splash in Week 2. The books still might have some doubts over Mike McDaniel‘s scheme and Tua’s ability to navigate it — though we glimpsed its ceiling last week with the dangerous duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Allen’s offense might welcome back injured WR Gabriel Davis (ankle) back to complement Stefon Diggs, but Miami’s cornerbacks are often a tough draw.
Bills vs Dolphins Pick of the Day
Read more on this Bills vs Dolphins bet below.
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction
Bills 27, Dolphins 24
I’ll take the points for the home team — but I’ll use them to place a better bet than the basic spread. Read more in the Dolphins-Bills Best Bets section below.
Hill and Waddle should challenge a Bills secondary playing without CB Tre’Davious White (ACL recovery); this duo will of course be the best pair Buffalo has played (sorry, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson).
Miami brought in LT Terron Armstead to stabilize this offensive line, and he’s ranked sixth out of 66 tackles so far, per Pro Football Focus. The former New Orleans Saints star should at least hold Buffalo’s Von Miller at bay in the matchup of the weekend.
The other major positional battle is Dolphins CB Xavien Howard matching up with either Diggs or the returning Davis. Howard’s heralded partner Byron Jones (ankle) is on the PUP list, but rookie Kader Kohou has thrived in his place, which could help contain the Diggs-Davis duo.
Still, Buffalo boasts the diversity on offense to find other outlets for Allen. This might be more of an Isaiah McKenzie or Dawson Knox game through the air.
New Bills OC Ken Dorsey has looked to establish more of a run game when necessary, and this might be one of those occasions: Miami has been vulnerable to the ground game, ranking in 17th with 116.5 rushing yards allowed per game. Buffalo, on the flip side, has swallowed up opposing backs with the best per-game defensive average (66.0).
Bills vs Dolphins Bet Tips
Sure, much of the betting trends for Miami in recent seasons are now null and void given the change in head coach and the addition of numerous elite skill players.
Still, we can consider these Bills vs Dolphins betting trends and angles when making decisions on what to wager:
- Miami and Buffalo are both 2-0 against the spread so far this season.
- In the era of elite Allen (since 2019), Buffalo is 9-5 against the spread as a road favorite, including league highs in margin of victory (13.1) and ATS +/-% (+6.8), per Team Rankings.
- Allen has won his last seven matchups with Miami, including a 415-yard, four-touchdown mark during his 2020 breakout season.
- Sean McDermott‘s Bills are 3-2 against the spread in Miami, most recently drubbing the Dolphins 35-0 last September.
Bills vs Dolphins Best Bets
Bills: Win by 1-6 Points (+305) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I really enjoy these “scoring margin band" bets, so let’s extract more juice from Dolphins +5.5. Miami will hang tight but eventually stumble.
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Dolphins 1st Half Moneyline (+165) at Caesars
WAGER: 0.5 Units
I’ll follow the angle of Buffalo starting out slowly in what’s expected to be high-80s heat at Hard Rock Stadium.
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