Vikings vs Bears Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Oct 11, 2023

The Minnesota Vikings travel to Chicago to face the Bears on Sunday in a matchup of NFC North basement dwellers. Both teams enter this contest with identical 1-4 records.

On top of losing last week’s game, Minnesota lost its best player, Justin Jefferson, as well. The Vikings placed the star wide receiver on injured reserve earlier this week due to a hamstring injury.

Chicago’s top wideout, DJ Moore, had a career night in a 40-20 upset victory in Washington last week. The former Carolina Panther racked up 230 receiving yards and scored three touchdowns.

Here are my predictions and best bets for this Week 6 divisional matchup.

Vikings vs Bears Odds

NFL odds used for this Minnesota vs Chicago preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, Oct. 11, at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Vikings (-142) • Bears (+120)
  • Spread: Vikings -2.5 (-110) • Bears +2.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 44.5 (-108) • Under 44.5 (-112)
  • Implied Score: Vikings 23.5, Bears 21

Vikings vs Bears Predictions

Score Pick: Bears 20, Vikings 17

The Bears have played well recently, winning last week and building an early lead the week prior against the Denver Broncos. While neither Denver nor Washington are world-beaters, the same can be said for Minnesota.

While the Bears are feeling good about themselves for the first time in a while, the Vikings suffered losses on and off the field last week.

Chicago has shown signs of improvement on both sides of the ball over the past couple of weeks. Jefferson’s absence removes the biggest advantage Minnesota would have had if both teams were at full strength.

I expect the Bears to do just enough to pull off the upset in front of the home crowd.

Vikings vs Bears Best Bets & Props

Under 44.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in offensive plays per game. They like to slow the pace, and I expect more of the same on Sunday.

The Justin Fields to DJ Moore connection made headlines last week, but the Bears still want to run the ball. They rank 10th in the NFL in rush offense DVOA, compared to 23rd in pass offense DVOA.

I expect both Chicago and Minnesota to feature the run, which should keep the clock going and lead to fewer scoring opportunities.

If Jefferson were healthy, this would be a different ballgame, and my prediction and best bets would likely look much different. However, I expect the Vikings to play things closer to the vest without their top offensive weapon.

The weather may also play a factor. Early reports suggest this game may be played in rainy and windy conditions, which could limit the offensive output on both sides, with the teams potentially relying more on the ground game.

Therefore, I am taking the Under as my NFL bet of the day.

Vikings: Under 23.5 (-115)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Vikings rank 12th in the NFL in offensive DVOA, but that is with Jefferson in the fold. Without him, the question is not if the passing offense will suffer; it is how much.

Jefferson has yet to miss an NFL game, so it’s hard to say for sure, although he accounts for 38.1% of the team’s passing yards. Minnesota will have to rely more on the running game and the short passing game.

Chicago has held each of its last two opponents below 100 rushing yards, including limiting the Commanders to 29 rushing yards last week.

Even if the Vikings can succeed against Chicago’s 31st-ranked pass defense, this figures to be a significantly less dynamic passing attack than it is when Jefferson is involved. Expect shorter throws and potential struggles in the red zone.

Minnesota has scored a touchdown on 50% of its trips to the red zone this season. I expect that number to dip without their top receiving threat. Ultimately, the Vikings will fall short of the 24-point mark in this game.

Bears +2.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Minnesota was masterful at winning close games a season ago. However, that has not been the case in 2023. They are 0-4 in games decided by seven points or less.

If this game is close at the end, I simply cannot trust the Vikings to pull it out.

The Bears have racked up over 450 yards of offense in each of their last two games. Meanwhile, Minnesota may struggle offensively without Jefferson on the field.

Even if the Bears do not put up quite as many yards or points as they have in recent weeks, I expect them to come out on top in this game. Take the points at a minimal cost.

Vikings vs Bears Same Game Parlay

Vikings vs Bears SGP (+298)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

  • Bears (+120)
  • Under 44.5 (-112)

For my same game parlay, I am hammering the Under on the game total. These teams play at a slow pace and should run the ball plenty. If bad weather does indeed hit, that would only increase the odds of a low-scoring game.

Though I chose to take the points in the straight bet above, I am grabbing the Bears on the moneyline in my SGP. We get more bang for our buck here while only risking 0.5 units.

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