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Lions vs Bears Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Dec 7, 2023

The game’s total and respective team totals for the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears are among the most head-scratching NFL Week 14 odds and lines, making them compelling betting options.

One player’s rushing prop is also enticing when looking at their recent success on the ground. There’s more scoring and offensive potential than the betting line suggests, as Detroit’s defense has struggled lately and its offense can light up the scoreboard.

This NFC North matchup is an Over bettor’s dream.

Lions vs Bears Odds

NFL odds used for this Detroit vs Chicago preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of December 6 and 8:45 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Lions (-178) • Bears (+150)
  • Spread: Lions -3 (-125) • Bears +3 (+105)
  • Total Points: Over 43.5 (-110) • Under 43.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Lions 23.25, Bears 20.25

Lions vs Bears Predictions

Score Pick: Lions 28, Bears 24

The Lions have been a guaranteed shootout since their bye in Week 9. In four subsequent contests, they’ve averaged 31.75 points and allowed an average of 30.25 points per game. The median outcomes in those games were 32 points for and 28.5 points against.

The Bears haven’t been an offensive juggernaut, but they’ve averaged an adequate 21.9 points, with a median of 20, in the seven games that Justin Fields didn’t exit early with an injury.

Chicago’s defense has flashed competence at times, but it has still allowed an average of 28.3 points per game, with a median of 31, in the seven-game sample of Fields’ entirely healthy contests.

When these teams met in Detroit in Week 11, the Bears led 26-14 with four minutes and 15 seconds left in the game before the Lions stormed back for a 31-26 victory. Points were also plentiful when these NFC North foes played last season.

In three matchups since last season, the games produced point totals of 61, 51, and 57. Given the trajectory of Detroit’s defense and the high quality of its offense, another barn burner is probable.

Lions vs Bears Best Bets & Props

Lions Over 23.5 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Lions have surpassed 23.5 points in seven of 12 contests this season, including four of their last five.

Even though Chicago’s defense has had glimpses of promise this season, the unit is a good matchup for Detroit’s high-octane offense.

According to FTN Fantasy, the Bears are 20th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). Chicago has also allowed 24.7 points per game this season.

Circling back to Detroit’s offense, Jared Goff has played significantly better in road games this season than last year. The Lions have averaged 25.8 points per game on the road, with a median of 27 in six games.

As a result, the Lions Over 23.5 points is the NFL bet of the day.

Bears Over 20.5 (+105)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

The Lions have allowed at least 26 points to four consecutive opponents and coughed up over 20.5 to six of their last eight foes.

Taking Chicago’s Over for 20.5 points is more about Detroit’s woeful defense than the Bears’ offense.

Still, the Bears have exceeded 20.5 points in three of Fields’ previous four healthy starts. The third-year quarterback is an inconsistent passer, but his legs can help offset his passing hiccups in a cushy matchup.

Justin Fields Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-129)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 units

Speaking of Fields’ legs, he steamrolled the Lions for 104, 132, and 147 rushing yards in his three prior meetings. He’s given the Lions fits on the ground.

Detroit’s run defense will have its work cut out after putting defensive tackle Alim McNeill on the injured reserve list (knee). Additionally, Taysom Hill just gashed the Lions for 59 rushing yards on 13 rush attempts last week.

Obviously, Hill has a different running style than Fields, but the latter had a season-high 13 designed runs against the Lions in the first matchup, per The 33rd Team, and Chicago would be wise to lean on his legs in the rematch.

Lions vs Bears Same-Game Parlay

Lions vs Bears SGP (+380)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Over 43.5 (-110)
  • Bears +6.5 (-189)
  • Justin Fields Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-129)

According to Covers, Detroit’s games have gone Over eight times in 12 contests, and Chicago’s have in seven of 12.

The Bears were blown out in one of the last three contests between these teams, yet they lost by five points in Week 11 and one point in their first showdown last season.

Moreover, the Lions haven’t beaten any of their last four opponents by more than five points since their bye. Meanwhile, the Bears have won outright or lost by less than 6.5 points in Fields’ last four healthy starts.

Finally, in addition to Fields’ success on the ground against the Lions being ideal for his rushing outlook this week, his recent usage is notable.

Since he’s returned from his thumb injury, Fields has reached double-digit rush attempts in back-to-back games, toting the rock 18 times on designed runs and eight on scrambles.

Author

Josh Shepardson

Josh is a fantasy gamer of roughly 20 years and a fantasy pundit for more than 10 years. He's experienced in numerous season-long baseball and football league types and a daily fantasy sports grinder, too. Additionally, Josh is a recreational gambler who has a soft spot for futures and prop bets. He studied and completed his Bachelor's degree in Sport Management at the State University of New York at Cortland, and he remains in Central New York, residing in Auburn.

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