The NFC North is a snoozefest this year. The Vikings have a 7-1 record and are 4.5 to 5 games ahead of their division rivals.
This includes the 3-6 Bears and the 2-6 Lions. Quietly, the Bears are not as bad as their record indicates. The Lions on the other hand, are just as bad as they look.
Below, I go over my Detroit vs Chicago betting tips for this Sunday.
Lions vs Bears Odds
I am not surprised that the Bears are favored at home against the Lions. What I am surprised about is that they are favored by as much as a field goal at FanDuel and most other sportsbooks as of Monday, Nov. 7.
What will be worth watching is if a market maker takes a strong position on this game and if other sportsbooks follow.
Lions vs Bears Implied Totals
Bears 25.5, Lions 23
The bookmakers expect a close high-scoring game that will be won by the Bears at home.
Lions vs Bears Pick of the Day
Read more on this Lions vs Bears bet below.
Lions vs Bears Prediction
Bears 21, Lions 13
Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields is starting to find his groove as a Lamar Jackson-like quarterback. The sophomore quarterback is playing at the level of an average starting quarterback, despite his lack of experience.
Last year, Fields had a QBR of 31.4 and only seven passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions. This season, Fields has a 55.1 QBR, and 10 passing touchdowns to only six interceptions.
On the ground, Fields has also improved. Even though he is more fumble prone than last season, he is averaging 6.6 yards per carry, and has four rushing touchdowns. Last week against Miami, Fields had 178 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, and three passing touchdowns.
In the previous three games, Fields had between 60 and 88 rushing yards.
Facing off against Fields is a Lions team with an average scoring margin of -5.8 points. Only the Texans and the Steelers have worse marks. Chicago has an average scoring margin of -3.2, and they have the benefit of playing at home.
Chicago is a 2.5 to three-point favorite depending on which book you use, when they should be 4.5-point favorite. Fields will continue to have growing pains this year, but he and the Bears should win this weekend.
Lions vs Bears Bet Tips
Here are some Lions vs Bears betting trends to consider before placing your bets:
- Lions are 4-4 against the spread, and 2-6 straight up.
- Bears are 4-4-1 ATS, and 3-6 straight up.
- Watch to see if Bears stay as a -2.5 favorite as betting limits are raised at either Circa or Pinnacle.
Lions vs Bears Best Bet
Bears -2.5 (-115) at Betway Sportsbook
Get it while supplies last?
I am not talking about a sales pitch; I am talking about betting on the Bears while they are still south of being a three-point favorite. Qualitatively, they are a better team than the Lions and they are at home.
Quantitatively, 16% of NFL games are decided by exactly three points, which is the most common margin of victory. Once the Bears settle as a -3 or -3.5 favorite, they become much less valuable as a bet then if they are at -2.5 with added juice.
I like Chicago on Sunday, and I would play them up to -4.
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Lions vs Bears Props
Check out the best Lions vs Bears player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool. Click on “Show More Games" below to find the Detroit vs Chicago game and see all of its prop bets.