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Bears vs Chiefs Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 21, 2023

The Bears and Chiefs are heading in opposite directions.

The 0-2 Bears have stumbled out of the gate, while the 1-1 Chiefs are back on track after beating the Jaguars.

The Bears have struggled on both sides of the ball, while the Chiefs welcomed back both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones last week after both stars missed Week 1.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some betting value in a likely blowout.

Bears vs Chiefs Odds

NFL odds used for this Chicago vs Kansas City preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, September 21 at 8 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Chiefs -700 • Bears (+500)
  • Spread: Chiefs -12.5 (-112) • Bears +12.5 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 47.5 (-112) • Under 47.5 (-108)
  • Implied Score: Chiefs 30, Bears 17.5

Bears vs Chiefs Predictions

Score Pick: Chiefs 31, Bears 13

While Week 1 was a bit of a slog for the Chiefs, they still almost beat the upstart Lions despite missing both Kelce and Jones and were able to take care of the Jaguars on the road last week.

The Bears, however, have been embarrassed by the Packers and Buccaneers, respectively, and haven’t looked any better than the 2022 squad that secured the worst record in the league.

Patrick Mahomes is still struggling to get used to his young and unproven arsenal of receivers, but we’re still talking about a generational quarterback, and he showed why in throwing for over 300 yards against the Jags.

Justin Fields, on the other hand, has shown he has a long way to go and has looked a bit lost in both games. He didn’t top 216 passing yards in either game, and he has turned the ball over four times already.

The Bears defense is allowing an average of 32.5 points per game, while their offense is averaging just 18.5 (and some of that came in garbage time).

With the Chiefs looking like they’re rounding into form, it’s going to be almost impossible for the Bears to keep pace on the road.

Bears vs Chiefs Best Bets & Props

Chiefs -12.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

I don’t love double-digit lines, but as you can probably tell with my score prediction, all signs are pointing to the Chiefs rolling, and I’m going with this bet as my NFL bet of the day.

Kansas City is fully healthy, their defense looked really good in limiting a good Jaguars offense to just nine points last week (in Jacksonville), and Mahomes looks to have shaken off any of his Week 1/Kelce-less rust. I still worry about his receiving options (or lack thereof), but I’m done doubting the reigning MVP.

Fields showed promise last year, but he’s starting to show that he might be a better fantasy quarterback than a real-life quarterback as he and the Bears offense have struggled to move the ball.

New weapon DJ Moore got more involved last week (six catches for 104 yards), but he’s really the only firepower the Bears have on offense, so I just don’t see how they keep up with Mahomes and Co.

DJ Moore Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Moore had a rough start to his Bears tenure in putting up just two receptions for 25 yards against the Packers, and his two targets were a huge red flag.

However, the Bears came to their senses and worked their prize offseason acquisition into the offense.

With the Bears almost assuredly playing from behind in this game, Fields is going to have to throw the ball, and Moore is easily his best option for chunk plays.

With Moore averaging over 16 yards per reception, we’ll likely only need three or four catches to get us to the promised land here. Lock it in.

Chiefs Over 30.5 (-105)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

It’s the NFL, and anything can happen on “any given Sunday,” but bear with this logic for a second.

If Jordan Love and the Christian Watson-less Packers can put up 38 points on the Bears, there’s no reason Mahomes can’t do the same. If Baker Mayfield can put up 27 points on the Bears, there’s no reason Mahomes can’t eclipse that in the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium.

I realize that’s not how things work from week to week, but Mahomes is coming off a big game in which he threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns on the road against a good Jaguars defense.

He’s also added 37.5 rushing yards per game. Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs offense should be able to feast on a Bears defense that has proved they can’t stop anyone.

Under 47.5 (-108)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

While the Chiefs will put up points on the Bears (more on that below), I just don’t see how the Bears will be able to move the ball.

Fields has looked exposed as a passer during the Bears’ first two games, and both were against lesser defenses than the Chiefs (and in a less hostile atmosphere). He also hasn’t even been doing much as a rusher like he did last year, and he only put up three total yards on four rushes last week.

The Bears rushing attack has looked relatively inept as well, as Khalil Herbert is averaging 31 rushing yards per game, so it’s not like they can rely on play action to help Fields much, either.

Unless Kansas City puts up 34-plus points, this game has an uphill battle to hit the over. Especially if Fields keeps turning the ball over at his current pace.

Bears vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay

Bears vs Chiefs SGP (+575)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Chiefs Over 29.5 (-130)
  • Under 47.5 (-105)

We’ve already gone over why I like the under in this game (Darnell Mooney being hampered with a knee injury after going catchless last week doesn’t help, either), and I really like getting down to 29.5 as the Chiefs alternate team total here.

Both of these bets are great standalone options, and they work nicely together as they give us a six-times return while putting stock in the Chiefs offense succeeding and the Bears offense struggling.

Author

Nick Roberts

Nick is an analyst at The Game Day who writes about the NFL and NBA from a betting perspective. He previously contributed to RotoWorld, Rotowire, and The New York Times. Nick resides in New Jersey.

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