The Lions have restored the roar and will attempt to extend their excellent season in San Francisco. The 49ers are understandably favored.
Both teams deserve to be in the NFC Conference Championship, and each defense has weaknesses that the opposing offenses can exploit. As a result, there are two eye-catching NFC Championship props to target in addition to one side.
The game’s total is high, and the offenses should find a groove on Sunday night. So, football fans and gamblers who enjoy points and Overs are in luck. Let’s look under the hood and determine the best way to attack betting on this game.
Lions vs 49ers Odds
NFL odds used for this Detroit vs San Francisco preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of January 23 and 4:15 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: 49ers (-335) • Lions (+260)
- Spread: 49ers -7 (-115) • Lions +7 (-105)
- Total Points: Over 51 (-110) • Under 51 (-110)
- Implied Score: 49ers 29, Lions 22
Lions vs 49ers Predictions
Score Pick: 49ers 28, Lions 24
Sadly, Deebo Samuel is essentially a coin flip to play this week because of a shoulder injury. In two games without Samuel this year, the 49ers scored 17 points against the Vikings and 17 against the Bengals.
Nevertheless, the sample is small, and Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are ample weapons for Brock Purdy to work with. Additionally, Detroit’s defense is mediocre.
San Francisco averaged 26.9 points per game at home, with a median of 27 this season. Conversely, Detroit allowed 24.7 points per game, with a median of 24 on the road this season.
Per FTN Fantasy, the 49ers are first in offense DVOA, and the Lions are 13th in defense DVOA. It’s a sizable mismatch the 49ers can exploit, even if Samuel is inactive.
Fortunately, Detroit’s offense can keep them in the game. While better at home, the Lions averaged 24.7 points per game on the road, with a median of 24 this season.
The Lions were also seventh in offensive DVOA. Furthermore, while San Francisco’s defense was fourth in DVOA, they’ve had blips on the radar against quality offenses: Ravens (allowed 33 points), Bengals (31), Cardinals (29), Rams (23), Vikings (22), and Packers (21).
Lions vs 49ers Best Bets & Props
Lions +7 (-115)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The 49ers were dreadful at covering the spread at home. According to Covers, San Francisco was 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in home games this season.
Meanwhile, the Lions were road warriors. They were 7-2 ATS on the road. As a bonus, Detroit was 2-1 ATS as a road underdog. The betting trends for the 49ers and Lions align perfectly to take the seven points with Detroit, making this the NFL bet of the day.
George Kittle Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.75 units
Kittle has averaged 64.8 receiving yards per game, with a median of 76 this season. He’s gone over 60.5 receiving yards 10 times in 17 contests. Moreover, he had 78 and a season-high 149 receiving yards in the two games Samuel was inactive.
The matchup is good, too. In Detroit’s previous eight games, they’ve allowed 64.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends, including coughing up 65 to Cade Otton last week.
David Montgomery Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.75 units
David Montgomery has a tasty matchup this week. In San Francisco’s previous eight games, running backs have gashed them for 4.6 yards per carry and 77.5 rushing yards per game.
The 49ers have shielded their leaky run defense by operating in a positive game script. As long as the Lions are in a neutral or positive game script, Montgomery can eat.
Montgomery was consistently fed the rock. He’s had double-digit carries in 15 of 16 games this season. Montgomery has averaged 69.1 rushing yards per game, clearing 45.5 rushing yards 13 times.
Lions vs 49ers Same Game Parlay
Lions vs 49ers SGP (+625)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- Lions +7 (-115)
- Over 47.5 (-174)
- George Kittle Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
- David Montgomery Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Three legs of the four-leg SGP are holdovers from the best bets and props. The outlier is the alternate line of Over 47.5 points.
Detroit’s games went Over the total on the road five times in nine games, and San Francisco’s game totals went Over five times in nine home contests this season. So, using Over 51 for a higher payout isn’t a terrible decision.
However, eating some chalk to take the alternate Over for 47.5 points is appealing to increase the probability of success for the suggested four-leg parlay. Thankfully, even with the chalky alternate line, the SGP has a tasty +625 payout.
