The Washington Commanders (7-6-1) head west to face the San Francisco 49ers (10-4) at Levi’s Stadium in a Week 16 conference clash on Saturday afternoon.
The Commanders check into a game that’s critical to their NFC wild-card hopes having dropped a 20-12 decision to the New York Giants at home on Sunday night. The 49ers come in on a seven-game winning streak with its most recent win being a 21-13 victory against the Seahawks on Thursday night to kick off Week 15.
With the stage set, let’s delve into our Washington vs San Francisco best bets, predictions, and betting tips for the Week 16 battle.
Commanders vs 49ers Odds
The 49ers’ status as a seven-point home favorite on Caesars Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Dec. 20, is wholly unsurprising, considering San Francisco has now proven it can win with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy and Washington’s offense seems unlikely to make many inroads against an elite Niners defense.
Commanders vs 49ers Implied Totals
49ers 23.25, Commanders 16.25
Oddsmakers appear to see another solid but unspectacular performance by the Niners’ offense against a solid defense and Washington struggling to do much with its typically average attack versus San Fran’s relentless defense.
Commanders vs 49ers Pick of the Day
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Commanders vs 49ers Prediction
49ers 24, Commanders 17
Purdy has shown outstanding command of the portion of the offensive playbook he’s been given access to thus far, completing 69 percent of his passes while generating a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in three games. Even more impressive is the fact the rookie seventh-round selection is getting it done without the services of Deebo Samuel (knee) and Elijah Mitchell (knee), who’ll both remain out for this game.
Christian McCaffrey is naturally playing the biggest role in helping keep defenses honest against Purdy, and the versatile player should continue to play a significant role Saturday.
McCaffrey has proven largely matchup-proof, and with Washington more vulnerable against the run on the road (124.9 RYPG allowed, compared to 98.4 per home game) and also having given up six receiving TDs to running backs this season, this could be an especially fruitful scenario for him.
Purdy also showed encouraging chemistry with star tight George Kittle in the win over Seattle, as he finished with a pair of touchdown grabs and 93 receiving yards on five catches. The Commanders have been effective versus tight ends throughout the season, but Kittle’s athleticism naturally sets him apart from virtually any other tight end in the league.
The Niners’ elite defense is the final piece to the puzzle here, as San Francisco has recorded 13 interceptions and 39 sacks while giving up an NFL-low 14.3 points per home contest. The Commanders have allowed 40 sacks and Taylor Heinicke threw five interceptions in his first six games as a starter before going without a pick the last two games against a Giants defense that has the second-fewest in the league (four).
While I can see a reasonably talented Commanders offense making some plays against a Niners defense that’s been a bit vulnerable to the pass at times at home, San Francisco’s balanced, diverse offense and the overall quality of its defense will ultimately carry the day.
Commanders vs 49ers Bet Tips
Here are a few Commanders vs 49ers betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- The Commanders are 7-6-1 against the spread, including 4-3 as a road team and 4-5-1 in conference games.
- The 49ers are 9-5 against the spread, including 5-2 as a home team and an NFL-best 8-2 in conference games.
- The Over is 2-4-1 in the Commanders’ road games and 3-4 in the 49ers’ home contests.
- San Francisco is 11-12 straight up when playing with a rest advantage since Kyle Shanahan became head coach in 2017 but 13-10 ATS in that split, as well.
Commanders vs 49ers Best Bets
Commanders +8 (-139) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I don’t mind paying up a bit to get this extra point on Washington, as the seven-point game spread is a bit borderline for my tastes. While I definitely envision a Niners win here, I feel that a Commanders squad playing with plenty of urgency can keep this a relatively competitive contest.
Washington’s 4-2-1 road mark and the fact its last three losses have been by four, three, and eight points, respectively, further solidify the pick.
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2nd Half: 49ers -3.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
While the Commanders have been a solid second-half offense with an average of 10.1 points per road game in that split, the 49ers have been very effective in closing out teams at home with only 7.7 points per second-half allowed at Levi’s Stadium.
Coupled with the fact Washington is also surrendering 10.1 points per second half on the road, I’ll give San Fran, which can always produce a late defensive touchdown when a team is throwing late due to the relentless pressure they apply, a good chance to cover this number over the final two quarters.
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Commanders vs 49ers Props
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