The San Francisco 49ers finally faced some real adversity over the holiday weekend, dropping just their second game of the season at home to the mighty Baltimore Ravens. Now, they’re perfectly positioned for a bounce-back victory against the weak Washington Commanders.
With questions at quarterback, are the Commanders sitting ducks here, or can Jacoby Brissett put the Super Bowl favorites on upset alert for a second straight week?
Here are our NFL Week 17 best bets for San Francisco vs Washington.
49ers vs Commanders Odds
NFL odds used for this San Francisco vs Washington preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, Dec. 27, at 4 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: 49ers (-850) • Commanders (+575)
- Spread: 49ers -13 (-110) • Commanders +13 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 49.5 (-110) • Under 49.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: 49ers 31.25, Commanders 18.25
49ers vs Commanders Predictions
Score Pick: 49ers 30, Commanders 20
As I alluded to above, the Commanders are set to go with Brissett as the starter, which should provide them with a significant upgrade over Sam Howell. While Howell has done some good things in his first full season at quarterback, he was the most sacked quarterback in the league up until his benching, which is a fate Brissett has been able to avoid with his elusiveness in the pocket.
While the numbers are slightly inflated as they’ve all come in garbage time and come in a small sample size, it does appear the Commanders are in store for an upgrade under center by going with Brissett. His EPA + CPOE Composite leads all quarterbacks this season who have taken at least 10 snaps, even higher than Brock Purdy.
Speaking of which, Purdy should be good to go here despite dealing with a stinger in Monday’s loss to the Ravens, and with that, I do think the 49ers should be able to successfully exploit one of the worst defenses in football.
I do think Brissett should help the Commanders offense look a little better here, however, and it’s also worth noting the Commanders, who have run the ball well, have a great matchup against a rush defense which has been one of the least efficient in football this season.
49ers vs Commanders Best Bets & Props
Over 49.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Continuing what we discussed above, the 49ers come into this game ranked 25th in EPA per rush this season. While the Commanders have thrown the ball at a higher rate than any team in the league, this should still present them with a great opportunity to score some points.
It’s important to take numbers like that with a grain of salt, and the context that’s needed there is that the Commanders have needed to pass more than any team, given their defense and inefficient offense have put them in significant deficits all season long.
The Commanders are a palpable 18th in rush success rate this season and have been improving in recent weeks, with Chris Rodriguez, Jr. finding some positive gains behind this line. He is a bit dinged up coming into this game and may not be able to play, but the good news here is that Brian Robinson seems to be trending towards a return.
It’s probably smart to wait for more news to emerge regarding the Commanders’ backfield before placing your wager, but I’m very encouraged by the interior blocking in recent weeks in the run game and think the offense should look much better with Brissett under center.
With questions about the 49ers’ rushing defense coming to a head here and the Commanders looking forward to what Brissett can do, both offenses should be able to feature in this one. The Over is our NFL bet of the day.
Commanders +13 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
With what we’ve laid out above, the Commanders should very much be in play here. While I prefer to back them by taking the Over, this defense picked it up last week after a very slow start against the Jets.
They also did a good enough job against a ferocious Rams offense the week prior by allowing just three touchdowns and locking down the Rams offense in the second half of that game.
The 49ers offense looked meek against the Ravens, and while a lot of that is due to the fact that Baltimore features one of the strongest units in the league, the Commanders have been able to trot out what’s been a league-average rushing defense this season which should help matters against a team which has wreaked havoc on the ground.
The main point here, though, is that the Commanders offense should wake up behind a quarterback who has completed 78.26% of his passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns in relief over the last two games. Also, he was pretty solid for them last year before he was eventually replaced by Howell.
This line has been better than you’d expect in terms of win rate at the line, according to ESPN, and it should be able to help Brissett move the ball, given what we’ve seen over the last two weeks.
The offense should keep pace enough to cover this large number.
49ers vs Commanders Same-Game Parlay
49ers vs Commanders SGP (+340)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Under 49.5 (-110)
- Commanders +13 (-110)
- Commanders +6.5 2H (-112)
With so many questions regarding the injuries in the backfield for the Commanders, it’s no surprise that oddsmakers are taking their time offering player props for this one. No need to fear since we can still use what we’ve learned over the last two weeks to cook something up with team props.
Washington ranks a surprising 10th this season in second-half offense, scoring 11.9 points per game and 16.3 per contest over the last three.
On the other side, their defense has been one of the worst in the second half this season. Things have improved on that end in recent games, with just 10.7 points per game coming from opponents over the last three – and in a similar trend, the 49ers have allowed 13.0 points per game in the second half over the last three weeks after dominating in this split all season long.
I expect the Commanders to ride a strong second half to a cover once again here and with that, it’s hard not to throw this leg into our same-game parlay as it fits the game script perfectly. Betting on the Commanders three ways isn’t necessarily the most fun way to spend your Sunday, but I believe in Brissett, and you should too.
