The Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) travel to the west coast to take on the San Francisco 49ers (3-3) in an inter-conference matchup of two of the best teams in the NFL. Both sides are coming off losses, with the Chiefs falling short to the rival Bills and 49ers getting upset by the Falcons.
The 49ers have gotten terrific news on the injury front this week, as offensive tackle Trent Williams, edge rusher Nick Bosa, and defensive back Jimmie Ward are all ready to return. That will solidify their pass protection and bolster their defense at the perfect time.
San Francisco has also dropped in with a surprising splash move, acquiring running back Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers on Thursday, adding one of the league’s best tailbacks to an already RB-friendly attack.
There’s a chance for CMC to immediately suit up this weekend, with reports say McCaffrey could sub in on red-zone packages.
Does this blockbuster swap change the outlook for this secretly epic showdown? Let’s take a look at Kansas City vs San Francisco betting tips in this intriguing Week 7 matchup.
Chiefs vs 49ers Odds
The Chiefs opened as 3-point road favorites, but the line has moved to 1.5, which makes sense considering how San Francisco has gotten some key pieces back and added McCaffrey. There’s some value in taking Kansas City at such a short number. The total sits at 48.5 points, which looks about right considering the Chiefs’ offensive firepower.
Take a look at the best Chiefs odds and 49ers odds for the 2022 NFL season.
Chiefs vs 49ers Implied Totals
Chiefs 25.5, 49ers 23
Bookmakers are projecting the Chiefs to squeak out a road win in a relatively high-scoring game. They’re giving the edge to Kansas City because San Francisco is not at full strength right now.
Chiefs vs 49ers Pick of the Day
Read more on this Chiefs vs 49ers bet below.
Chiefs vs 49ers Prediction
Chiefs 27, 49ers 20
Patrick Mahomes continues to play at an extremely high level, despite getting underwhelming contributions from JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as they try to replace Tyreek Hill. The star quarterback has 17 touchdowns and four interceptions on the year.
The Chiefs have a significant advantage at quarterback with Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo, who is at his best as a game manager with the running game as the primary focus of the offense. The 49ers will look to rebound after only rushing for 50 yards against the Falcons.
The best plan of attack for San Francisco should be to lean on Jeff Wilson Jr, and the running game. If CMC plays, that’s a bonus. The problem is that the Chiefs have been decent against the run, ranking 13th in Rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders. They’ve been more vulnerable through the air (28th in Pass DVOA).
San Francisco is elite at run defense, ranking 1st in Rush DVOA. However, this strength does not matter as much against the Chiefs, who are one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football. The 49ers are not as stout at defending the pass (seventh in Pass DVOA).
This should be a close game, but I’m giving the edge to Kansas City, even with the 49ers getting back some of their key pieces on both sides of the ball. Mahomes is playing like an MVP candidate right now and it’s tough to see Kansas City losing two in a row.
Chiefs vs 49ers Bet Tips
Here are some Chiefs vs 49ers betting trends to consider before placing your wagers:
- The Chiefs are 2-4 against the spread, while the 49ers are 3-3.
- Kansas City is 3-3 in Over/Unders and San Francisco is 1-5.
- San Francisco is returning from a two-game road trip on the east coast.
- The Chiefs have a bye next week.
- Newly acquired McCaffrey is likely to see a bit of a limited role if he suits up.
Chiefs vs 49ers Best Bets
Chiefs -1.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
We’re getting the Chiefs at a short number on the road, giving us nice value on the team with a significant advantage at quarterback. Kansas City is coming off a loss to the Bills, but they’ve shown that their offense hasn’t slowed down without Tyreek Hill. Back the Chiefs in this spot.
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Under 48.5 Total Points (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Under is 5-1 in 49ers games this season, so we’ll ride with this betting trend. Despite dealing with injuries, San Francisco will likely still try to establish the run and slow down this game, keeping Mahomes off the field. That bodes well for the Under in this spot.
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