UFC 269 Oliveira vs Poirier Prediction | Bet Picks & Odds For Lightweight Championship

Last Updated: Dec 11, 2021

Here are Taylor Tarter’s UFC 269 predictions, including UFC 269 bet picks for Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier.

UFC 269 Oliveira vs Poirier Fight Analysis

UFC 269 pits Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira against No. 1 contender Dustin Poirier on Saturday, December 11 at 10:00 p.m. EST. Prelims start at 8 p.m. and early prelims start at 6:15 p.m.

Charles Oliveira has had a long road to becoming a champion, but he may only last as champion for a short time.

He won the belt in a decisive victory against Michael Chandler at UFC 262 in May. It was his ninth victory in a row. All of those nine fights ended in either TKO or submission, except for his bout with Tony Ferguson.

Sportsbook Play of the Day

Before reading our UFC 269 betting tips, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering tons of promotions and matching your first bet up to $1,001 (win or lose) for new signups using our promo code .

Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our UFC 269 tipster picks.

Although he hasn’t strung as many wins together, Dustin Poirier has won eight of his last 10 fights. One ended in a no contest, and the other was against the dominant, undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov.

With back-to-back wins against Conor McGregor, Poirier showed he can handle the spotlight, stick to his game plan, and win a tough fight.

Both fighters are extremely well-rounded. Oliveira is much more dominant when the fight goes to the mat, winning 19 of his 39 professional fights by submission. Though Poirier can hold his own on the ground, he’s seen more success staying on his feet, with 14 KO/TKO wins and seven by decision.

At the very least, this should be an exciting fight.

Oliveira vs Poirier Prediction

Dustin Poirier to Win by Decision

These fighters have very balanced skill sets and are both very smart fighters, so they will probably take the first round to start figuring each other out.

Dustin Poirier is sixth all-time in the UFC in significant strikes landed. Even though he has only won 14 fights by KO or TKO, his strikes can be devastating and wear down an opponent. If the fighters stay on their feet, Poirier should have the edge. He should be doing everything he can to make it a stand-up fight.

UFC 269 Oliveira vs Poirier Best Bets

Dustin Poirier to Win (-160) at Caesars

Poirier averages two more strikes per minute than Oliveira, and although they have a nearly identical rate of significant strikes, simply being hit 5.62 times per minute could wear Oliveira down over five rounds of fighting.

Oliveira’s 2.64 takedowns and 2.72 submissions attempted per 15 minutes nearly doubles the rates of Poirier, which would be concerning, if not for Poirier’s takedown defense rate of 61%. Poirier should be able to outlast Oliveira in this fight.

Kai Kara-France to Win (+120) at Caesars

Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt may end up winning fight of the night. These two are known for their striking, with France averaging five significant strikes per minute and Garbrandt averaging 3.17.

One reason to bet on Kara-France in this fight is because he is better at avoiding the big shot than Garbrandt. Kara-France is also more well-rounded, having won three fights by submission, compared to Garbrant’s zero.

Look for Amanda Nunes to take advantage of Julianna Peña’s poor takedown defense at UFC 269 this Saturday night. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

UFC 269: Best Fight Bets

Amanda Nunes by Submission (+800) at Caesars

Nobody will be surprised if and when Amanda Nunes wins her fight. She is the most dominant female UFC fighter of all time. Despite overwhelmingly winning her fights by KO or TKO, this fight could end on the mat.

Julianna Peña‘s takedown defense rate is 23%, which Nunes’ corner has surely noticed in their research and film study. In all of her UFC submission wins, her opponents have had a takedown defense rate of 54% or less. This is an excellent matchup to bet on Nunes to win by submission.

UFC 269 Parlay Boost: Dustin Poirier, Cody Garbrandt, Geoff Neal All Win (+500) at Caesars

Caesars Sportsbook is running a special UFC 269 parlay where you can bet up to $100 that each of these three fighters wins. Even though one of the recommended bets in this article is against Garbrandt, sprinkling a little money on this parlay to hedge that bet could end up making you some money back in the event that Garbrandt wins his fight.

Betting this parlay normally would be +485, but Caesars is giving a slight boost to those who make the bet.

When you’ve finished reading The Game Day’s UFC 269 Predictions for Oliveira vs Poirier, check out more of our betting picks here.

Tony Ferguson.

UFC 269 Promotions

UFC 269 Event Schedule

  • UFC 269 card event date: Saturday, December 11
  • UFC 269 early preliminary fights: 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN2 & ESPN+
  • UFC 269 preliminary fights: 8 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass
  • UFC 269 main event start: 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV


Taylor Tarter

Taylor Tarter, a lifelong baseball fan, covers baseball, DFS baseball, and baseball betting for TheGameDay.com, and hosts the podcast Fastball Fantasy Baseball (@fastballpod on Twitter). He is a student of sabermetrics, which drives his podcast and his writing. Taylor has over a decade of fantasy baseball experience, including being a multi-time league champion in various formats. And finally... Go Nats!

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