Trey Lance NFL Draft 2021 Prospect Profile: Risk-Reward QB Like Comp Carson Wentz

Frank AmmiranteSenior Sports Writer
Last Updated: Apr 9, 2021

This is The Game Day’s Trey Lance NFL Draft Prospect Profile. After you read our Trey Lance Scouting Report, check out our full 2021 NFL Draft Guide and Marcus Mosher’s first 2021 NFL Mock Draft for Rounds 1-3 and see where the North Dakota State alum is predicted to be selected.

Trey Lance NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Trey Lance: Bio & Measurables

  • School: North Dakota State
  • Height: 6-foot-4
  • Weight: 226 lbs.
  • Class in Final Season: Junior

Trey Lance: Scouting Report


  • Strong athleticism with good footwork to help evade the pass rush
  • Dual-threat playmaker with the ability to throw the ball downfield with touch and scramble for chunk yardage
  • Plays with poise under pressure
  • Does a great job protecting the football while still taking necessary risks

Needs Improvement

  • Faced weaker competition in the Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC)
  • Small sample of production, with only one season as the starting quarterback
  • Can be a bit inconsistent with his accuracy
  • Struggled in his only start of the 2020 season against Central Arkansas

Trey Lance NFL Outlook

Lance only has one year of starting experience, but he tore up the league in that small 2019 sample with an absurd 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions. His ability to protect the football and make big plays as a dual-threat quarterback makes him an enticing prospect.

Lance was limited to only one start in this shortened season, a game where he struggled against Central Arkansas. He completed 15-of-30 passes (50%) for 149 yards (4.97 Y/A) with two touchdowns and one interception, but he made up for his passing struggles with 143 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

It’s tough to put too much stock in a one-off game — his only action of the season — but it’s worth noting that he did not perform well in his most recent performance.

Lance will be in his age-21 season as a rookie, so it could be beneficial for him to spend at least half of the season learning on the sidelines behind a veteran quarterback.

This is a prospect who needs some development and might not be ready to start in Week 1. Lance’s dual-threat playmaking ability gives him as much upside as any quarterback in this draft.

In today’s NFL, it’s important to have a mobile quarterback, so Lance has a bright future in this league, as long as he’s not thrust into action in a difficult situation with limited weapons or a porous offensive line.

While there’s risk here given the small sample of strong production, the traits are there for Lance to develop into a franchise quarterback.

Trey Lance NFL Comparison

Carson Wentz: Lance shares similar traits with the other top quarterback prospect out of North Dakota State. Like Lance, Wentz had concerns as a prospect who faced weaker competition coming out of a small school. Both quarterbacks had only one full season as the starter.

At 6-foot-6, 235 pounds, Wentz has similar measurables with Lance. Wentz has the stronger arm, but Lance has better mobility. Both quarterbacks excelled with touch passes downfield but were sometimes inconsistent with their accuracy.

Trey Lance NFL Draft: Team Fits

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons. They now have a new head coach in Arthur Smith who brings over a new scheme.

The Falcons have the fourth overall pick, so it’s the ideal time to select 35-year old Matt Ryan‘s successor.

Smith has experience working with a mobile quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, so his scheme could be perfect for Lance. The Falcons could have Lance learn behind Ryan for the first season before handing over the reins. Lance would have the opportunity to play with stud wide receivers like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.

Detroit Lions

The Lions have missed the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. Dan Campbell is their new head coach, equipped with the seventh overall pick. The team has moved on from quarterback Matthew Stafford and can now trade a first-rounder to move up and select his replacement.

Wide receiver Kenny Golladay is a free agent, but the team does have other weapons like tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back D’Andre Swift. New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn helped guide rookie quarterback Justin Herbert to a stellar season, which bodes well for Lance if he lands here.

Carolina Panthers

This is the best landing spot for Lance.

Not only would he have the opportunity to work with stud offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but he’d also be surrounded by weapons like running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receivers D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson.

Lance would compete with new arrival Sam Darnold for a starting job in Year 1.

Drafting Lance would make the Panthers a sneaky wild-card contender as soon as next season.

Trey Lance NFL Draft Prediction

Round 1, Pick 4: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons will have a chance to take Lance with Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones as the first three picks in the draft.

While Lance was only limited to one game this season, a game in which he really struggled against Central Arkansas, this is a dynamic passer with quite possibly the highest upside among quarterbacks in this class.

In Atlanta, Lance would be able to sit behind Ryan for a year before he’s ready to take over.

Trey Lance NFL Draft Bets

BetMGM currently lists Trey Lance at (+400) to be selected third overall. While I expect the 49ers to select Mac Jones with this pick, this is a solid value for a player who I believe to be the superior prospect.

Lance has the mobility to really take Shanahan’s scheme to the next level, so there’s definitely a chance that this happens.

Now that you’ve read our Trey Lance draft prospect and scouting report, stay tuned for more Trey Lance 2021 Draft bet tips — and after the 2021 NFL Draft for his impact on betting lines, odds and tips for his NFL team.

New BetMGM customers can claim a signup offer to get a Free Risk-Free Bet Up to $600. Use this offer to bet on the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.


Frank Ammirante

Frank Ammirante is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously, he wrote for 4for4 Football and RotoBaller. Frank is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association while maintaining an active presence within the community. He has competed in industry contests like the Scott Fish Bowl, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and more. Frank will be making his debut in Tout Wars this year. He's got a diverse sporting background, but specializes in football and baseball.

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