Steelers Bills Bet Tips for Week 14

Last Updated: Jan 8, 2021

Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field on Sunday night at 8:20 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Steelers Bills Bet Tips. All odds and lines for Steelers at Bills picks are from PointsBet, current as of Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)

Steelers Bills Bet Tips

Steelers Bills Odds and Betting Lines

  • Against The Spread: Bills -2.5 (-115)/Steelers +2.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Bills (-145)/Steelers (+125)
  • Total: 46.5 — Over 46.5 (-105)/Under 46.5 (-115)
  • Implied Team Totals: Bills 24.5, Steelers 22.

The Steelers were undefeated before dropping their first game of the year last week in an improbable victory by Washington. They will look to get back into the win column for a late-December run facing a Bills club that has won five of their past six games, including two straight.

With the Dolphins and Browns breathing down the necks of the Bills and Steelers respectively, the loser of this game could be fighting for first place in their respective divisions moving forward.

Both the Steelers and Bills have had a stranglehold on the AFC North and East for most of the year, but things are heating up in the colder months.

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Steelers Bills Key Injuries

Steelers

Steelers CB Joe Haden is in the league’s concussion protocol, as he suffered the head injury in the fourth quarter of Week 13’s loss to Washington. On a short week, there is still a chance Haden can play on Sunday night, but his overall playing status is in question.

Haden is Pro Football Focus’ No. 28-ranked cornerback this season on 721 snaps. If Haden is out, Cameron Sutton is expected to see extended playing time. While Sutton is PFF’s No. 12 ranked corner, he has only played 380 snaps.

Also in Pittsburgh’s defensive backfield, CB Steven Nelson, who missed last week’s loss with a knee injury, is expected to practice this week. Though like Haden, there are no guarantees Nelson will play. Nelson is PFF’s No. 36 ranked corner. The Steelers have an embarrassment of riches with four corners ranked in the top 36.

If both Haden and Sutton miss Sunday night’s battle in Buffalo, the Steelers’ defense will be at a severe disadvantage facing the Bills’ high-octane passing attack.

Bills

There are no new significant injuries for the Bills.


Steelers Bills Players to Watch

Steelers RB James Conner was activated from the reserve/ COVID-19 list this week and is expected to play and start on Sunday night at Buffalo. Conner has missed the past two games since being placed on the list.

While Benny Snell played well in the first game sans Conner, totaling 93 yards on 19 touches against the Ravens, he followed it up with a dud. Snell only managed 10 total yards on 10 touches in last week’s loss to the Football Team.

The Steelers not only need Conner back healthy and ready to go, but they must re-establish him as a top tier runner to create more balance in the offense. In the three games leading into his stint on the COVID list, Conner maintained a three-game scoring drought while totaling fewer than 99 yards each of those contests, going for fewer than 48 total yards twice.

This is a terrific get-right matchup for Conner as the Bills are surrendering the ninth-most rushing yards per game (126.0) in 2020.

Bills WR Gabriel Davis has stepped up admirably in the absence of John Brown. (USA TODAY Sports)

With John Brown on the injured reserve list with an ankle injury, rookie Gabriel Davis has quietly stepped up.

In each of the past two games without Brown, Davis has drawn four targets, catching three of them for at least 68 yards and a touchdown. He’s also scored in three of his past four games overall.

Potentially facing a banged-up Steelers secondary — Steven Nelson (knee) and Joe Haden (concussion) are both up in the air to play — Davis could be in line for another quality outing.


Steelers Bills Weather Report

The weather at New Era Field calls for foggy nightly skies at the time of kickoff with an 11% chance of precipitation.

The temperature is forecast at 34 degrees Fahrenheit with 11 mph winds blowing West-SouthWest.


Steelers Bills Bet Tips

BEST BET: Over 46.5 (-105)

The Steelers are a banged-up football team. Players that include LB Bud Dupree (knee, IR), LB Robert Spillane (knee), CB Joe Haden (concussion), CB Steven Nelson (knee), and C Mike Pouncey (illness) are all either out or questionable to play. As you can see, the bulk of those players are on Pittsburgh’s defense, which makes a regular strength, a potential weakness. That bodes well for Buffalo’s offense to put up points.

On the other side, the Bills’ defense is surrendering the 15th-most points per game (25.5). And with James Conner activated from the COVID list and expected to return to his usual workload, we could see a more balanced Steelers’ offense, which will open up the passing lanes for Ben Roethlisberger and his slew of pass-catching weapons.

The Steelers’ offense is averaging the seventh-most points per game (27.8), but have scored fewer than 19 points in each of their past two matchups against Baltimore and Washington, both top-end defensive units. Defense is not Buffalo’s forte, which is good news for, you guessed it, points.

The Over is 3-5-2 in the Steelers’ past 10 games, but 0-4-1 in their past five.

The Over is 6-3-1 in the Bills’ past 10 games and 4-1 in their past five.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iv3ZsQaSe9g

CONSIDER: Steelers (+125)

This is a pivotal game for all parties involved. The Bills are in first place in the AFC East with the Dolphins one game behind, while the Steelers are in first place in the AFC North with the Browns two games behind. A Steelers win would likely lock-up the division without officially clinching it.

If the Steelers were not coming off of their first and only loss of the year last week against Washington, I would probably err on the side of the Bills. However, I just don’t see this Steelers team dropping two straight.

While I do like the reasonable 46.5-point total to go Over, the team with the better defense will likely end up making the game-changing or clinching play when it is all said and done. While Ben Roethlisberger has seen it all in his career, Josh Allen has yet to face a defense quite like the 2020 Steelers. Sure, he’s played well against good defenses, but when the Steelers are on, they are virtually unpenetrable. Pittsburgh will bring it, which could force the sometimes giveaway-prone Allen to make a mistake.

The Steelers are 11-1 straight up their past 12 games.

The Bills are 5-1 SU in their past six, winning two straight.

CONSIDER: Steelers +2.5 (-105)

I would rather take the Steelers outright as it has better odds, but if you think this could be a squeaky-close game going in either direction, you might want to protect yourself and take Pittsburgh getting the points.

The Bills are 4-4 against the spread in their past eight games, covering in each of their past four.

The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games, but 2-3 ATS in their past five, failing to cover in two straight.

Anthony Cervino is 41-35-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.

Prepare Week 14 betting tips and plan

Done brushing up on your NFL game predictions for Pittsburgh at Buffalo against the spread, Over/Under and moneyline picks?

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Author

Anthony Cervino

Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter. Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation. Industry Clout: 15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019) | 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020) | 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).

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