New England Patriots (6-7) at Miami Dolphins (8-5)
The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Patriots-Dolphins Bet Tips. Odds and lines for Patriots-Dolphins Picks come from PointsBet, current as of Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET.
Patriots-Dolphins Bet Tips
Odds & Betting Lines for Patriots-Dolphins Picks
- Against The Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-110) / Patriots +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dolphins (-140) / Patriots (+120)
- Total: 41.5 — Over 41.5 (-115) / Under 41.5 (-105)
- Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 22, Patriots 19.5
New England Patriots head to Miami looking to play playoff spoiler visiting Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins.
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Patriots-Dolphins Key Injuries
Patriots
Patriots RB Damien Harris is listed as questionable with back injury, which could open up more opportunities for James White and Sony Michel. If Harris is ultimately ruled out, it would mean a big uptick for both RBs, but more for Michel in the lead-back role.
Dolphins
As of Tuesday night, it’s a total mystery as to who will start at running back for the Dolphins in Week 15. Salvon Ahmed is questionable with a shoulder injury and both Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida are on the COVID-19 list. Patrick Laird led the Miami backfield with four carries in Week 14, so it’s a total wait-and-see approach as to what to expect this week.
Patriots-Dolphins Players to Watch
NE QB Cam Newton remains the Patriots starter, despite being replaced by backup QB Jarrett Stidham late in the team’s Week 14 TNF loss to the Rams. It’s a tough matchup no matter who is under center for New England facing a Dolphins D that has allowed less than 200 yards passing in three of its last five games. It’s Cam’s legs that always remain relevant, especially in the red zone with 11 rushing TDs so far this season.
MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa had the best statistical game of his career last week, throwing for 316 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing score. We’re likely to see a lesser showing this week as the Pats have allowed just one total passing TD and an average of 172.0 passing yards in its past three contests.
Patriots-Dolphins Weather Report
The weather report for Hard Rock Stadium calls for partly sunny skies and a high of 78 degrees Fahrenheit. There is a 6% chance of rain and 12 mph wind gusts are also in the forecast.
Patriots-Dolphins Picks & Best Bet
BEST BET: Miami (-140)
In a true changing of the guard game, I like the Dolphins to continue the dethroning of the Patriots in the AFC East. However, I don’t trust Miami to cover the spread, as I expect it to move to -3 by kickoff on Sunday.
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CONSIDER: Patriots +2.5 (-110)
Even though my best bet for this game is the Dolphins moneyline, I like the Patriots plus the points.
Of note, this is being written on Tuesday, and I expect the line to get to -3. That’s when the Patriots become my play.
With HC Bill Belichick having an insane 21-5 record against rookie QBs in his career, I’ll take him and the Pats plus the points — but only if we hit or buy it to -3.
PASS: Over 41.5
With two teams that live and die by their defense, I’ll pass on the over in this one.
Pauly Parlays is 35-26-3 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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