New England Patriots (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)
The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills at Bills Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s our Patriots-Bills Betting Guide.
All odds and lines from PointsBet, current as of Wednesday at 11 p.m. ET.
Patriots-Bills Betting Guide
Patriots-Bills Odds and Betting Lines
- Against The Spread: Bills -3.5 (-110) / Patriots +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bills (-200) / Patriots (+170)
- Total: 42.5 — Over 42.5 (-110) / Under 42.5 (-110)
- Implied Team Totals: Bills 23, Patriots 19.5
Patriots try to snap losing streak visiting division rival Bills.
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Patriots-Bills Injury Report
Patriots
- WR Julian Edelman (knee), Questionable
- WR N’Keal Harry (head), Questionable
- RB Damien Harris (ankle), Questionable
- RG Shaq Mason (calf), Questionable
- C Joe Thuney (ankle) Questionable
Bills
- CB Josh Norman (hamstring), Doubtful
- RG Brian Winters (knee), Questionable
- LG Cody Ford (knee), Questionable
Patriots-Bills Players to Watch
NE QB Cam Newton has been straight-up bad in his two games since returning from the COVID-19 reserve list. He’s thrown 5 interceptions and zero touchdowns in those contests. He was so bad last week against the 49ers that Bill Belichick pulled a QB for the first time in his tenure as the Patriots head coach due to performance. Let that sink in for a second.
With his top two receivers in Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry both questionable, a lack of practice reps could be another issue the Patriots will have to deal with heading into a massive AFC East matchup.
BUF QB Josh Allen hasn’t been good over the past three weeks and couldn’t get in the end zone last week against a winless Jets team. The Patriots defense is a top-5 unit that similarly hasn’t allowed a passing TD in its two games since a Week 5 bye.
Allen also hasn’t beaten New England in three career starts versus his division rival. However, he didn’t have BUF WR Stefon Diggs in any of those games. With at least 6 receptions in each of his last four games and 100-plus receiving yards in two of them, Diggs could be the difference maker the Bills have needed to finally top the Pats.
Patriots-Bills Weather Report
The weather report for Bills Stadium calls for a windy day with gusts up to 30 mph. There is also a 59% chance of showers and a 20% chance of thunderstorms. The temperature is forecast for 48 degrees Fahrenheit.
Patriots-Bills Betting Guide
BEST BET: Under 42.5 (-110)
The Bills offense has averaged 17.0 points per game in its last three contests. Amazingly, the Patriots have been even worse, averaging less than 10.0 points per game in that same span. Look for a low-scoring AFC East battle in inclement weather up in Buffalo on Sunday.
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CONSIDER: Patriots +3.5 (-110)
While the Patriots have seemingly hit rock bottom, this is do-or-die for New England.
I expect Belichick to come up with a gameplan that keeps the Pats season alive as falling to 2-5 doesn’t seem like an option. However, his players will have to execute for the Patriots to pull off the upset. That’s why I like the leeway of the 3.5 points, just in case the Bills do come out on top by a field goal.
PASS: Bills (-200)
Allen has an 0-3 career record against the Pats with 3 TDs and 5 interceptions while averaging less than 200 yards passing per game. I can’t see the Bills’ QB pulling off his first win over a desperate Patriots team, despite how bad they’ve looked in recent weeks.
Pauly Parlays is 21-11-2 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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