Packers-Bears Bet Tips for Week 17

Last Updated: Jan 8, 2021

Green Bay Packers (12-3) at Chicago Bears (8-7)

The Green Bay Packers visit the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Packers-Bears Bet Tips. Odds and lines for Packers-Bears picks are from PointsBet, current as of Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Packers-Bears Bet Tips


Odds & Betting Lines for Packers-Bears Picks


  • Against The Spread: Packers -5.5 (-110)/Bears +5.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Packers (-240)/Bears (+190)
  • Total: 51.5 — Over 51.5 (-115)/Under 51.5 (-105)
  • Implied Team Totals: Packers 28.5, Bears 23

While the Packers have the NFC North clinched, they do have something to play for on Sunday. With a win over the Bears, the Packers can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bears must win to clinch a Wild Card spot, but even with a loss, they can get in with some help. The Packers have won five straight games while the red-hot Bears have won three consecutive games in their own right.

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Packers-Bears Key Injuries


Packers

Packers RB Jamaal Williams is dealing with a quad injury that sidelined him for last week’s win over the Titans. While there is a chance we could see Williams return for the season finale against the Bears, Green Bay may decide to hold the veteran rusher out until the postseason.

That may not be a bad idea, either. With Williams sidelined, we saw the emergence of A.J. Dillon last week. Between Aaron Jones briefly exiting the game with a hip injury and second-half clock-killing work, Dillon went for 124 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries.

Bears

The Bears are not dealing with any new significant injuries that would impact Packers-Bears picks.


Packers-Bears Players to Watch


Packers TE Robert Tonyan has been hot this season but failed to show up last week against the Titans. Tonyan caught 1-of-2 targets for 17 yards in the Week 16 win but did not score, snapping a five-game streak with a touchdown.

Back in Week 12 against the Bears, Tonyan caught all five of his targets for 67 yards and a touchdown. He will look to drop a similar line on them on Sunday as the Bears are surrendering the fifth-most catches (84), the fifth most yards, and the second-most touchdowns (10) to tight ends in 2020.

Tonyan is second on the Packers in receptions (50) and receiving touchdowns (10) and third in yards (568).

Packers-Bears Bet Tips and Packers-Bears Picks: David Montgomery has bowled over opponents in the second half to establish a more dominant run game for Chicago.
Packers-Bears Bet Tips and Packers-Bears Picks: David Montgomery has bowled over opponents in the second half to establish a more dominant run game for Chicago. (USA TODAY Sports)

Bears RB David Montgomery continues to ball out in the second half of the season. The last time Montgomery played the Packers, he went off. And he’s still going. In five games since that Week 12 meeting in which Montgomery went for 143 total yards and a score, the second-year rusher has posted five straight games with 111+ total yards and 1+ touchdown, scoring seven times in that five-game period.

Look for Montgomery to pop again facing a Packers run defense that can be had despite allowing the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game (113.1) and the eighth-most rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (13), 18 total including receiving scores.

While they managed to bottle up Derrick Henry last week for 98 yards and no scores, six different backs this season have totaled north of 100 yards on the Packers’ defense this season. Montgomery was the last, however.


Packers-Bears Weather Report


The weather at Soldier Field calls for a mostly sunny afternoon at the time of kickoff with a 5% chance of precipitation.

The temperature is set at 26 degrees Fahrenheit with 8 mph winds blowing East.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onHDhCM1rg0


Packers-Bears Picks & Bet Tips


BEST BET: Packers (-240)

Both the Packers and Bears need this game. Green Bay needs to win to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Bears need to win to get into the playoffs. Otherwise, they will need help to earn a Wild Card spot.

I don’t know what happened to the Chicago defense, which is normally their bread and butter, but they have not lived up to par ever since their offense has emerged.

The Chicago defense has given up 23+ points in five of their past eight games. This is a Bears defense that is able to hold opponents to fewer than 20 points almost at will. Maybe it is because the Bears’ offense is scoring more. Either way, they don’t look good. This bodes well for Green Bay’s offense that is the top-scoring unit in the NFL.

While the Packers’ defense can give up some points, they have held opponents to fewer than 16 points in three of their past four games, including two straight. One of those offenses was the Titans’ unit last week. Entering Week 16, Tennessee’s offense was the No, 2 unit in scoring. Green Bay dismantled them.

While the Bears have won three straight, the Packers are riding a five-game winning streak, which began back in Week 12 against this Chicago team.

The Packers have won eight of their past nine games against the Bears, including three straight.

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CONSIDER: Over 51.5 (-115)

While the Packers are the best team in the NFC, they need to win this week to clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the playoffs. Because it will be all systems go for Aaron Rodgers and company, this will be a points bonanza.

It’s not just the Packers either. While Green Bay is averaging the most points per game (31.6), the Bears are at the 18th most PPG (23.7). But remember, the Bears’ offense was a bottom-feeding unit for most of the year without Mitchell Trubisky. Since Trubisky has been back in the saddle, this Bears’ offense has been red hot.

The Bears have scored 25+ points in five straight games beginning with their Week 12 loss to Green Bay. In four consecutive outings, the Bears have scored 30+ points in all of them.

The Packers have scored 24+ in six straight and 30+ in five of their past six.

The Over is 1-3 in the Packers’ past four games, hitting last week.

The Over is 4-1 in the Bears’ past five games, hitting in two straight.

The Over is 1-3 in the past four meetings between these two teams, hitting in their Week 12 tilt.

Pass: Packers -5.5 (-110)

I do not trust this spread (-5.5). The Bears are playing their best football since their 2018 run while covering the spread in three straight games. Meanwhile, the Packers are 1-2 against the spread in their past three games, covering last week.

I do believe the Packers will win this game outright, but this one could come down to the wire.

The Packers have covered against the Bears in each of their past three meetings.

Anthony Cervino is 61-50-2 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.

Prepare Week 17 betting tips and plan

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Author

Anthony Cervino

Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter. Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation. Industry Clout: 15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019) | 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020) | 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).

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