The Baltimore Ravens take on the Kansas City Chiefs in an exciting matchup for the AFC Conference Championship Game.
Veteran wideout Odell Beckham Jr. has seen a reduced role in the Ravens offense, which makes it worth looking at his player prop Unders.
With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at Odell Beckham Jr. props for the AFC Conference Championship Game between Kansas City and Baltimore.
All Conference Championship odds used in these props are current as of Jan. 24.
Odell Beckham Jr. Prop Pick of the Day
Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Prop
Odell Beckham Jr: Under 22.5 Receiving Yards
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Odell Beckham Jr. put up 35 receptions for 565 yards, including 40.4 yards per game, but I’m liking his Under against the Chiefs this week, despite it being at a low bar of 22.5 yards.
If we take a look at Beckham’s recent game log, we see that he put up one reception on his lone target for 12 yards in the AFC Divisional Round vs the Texans. When we look at route participation, we see that OBJ was barely used in the offense for this game.
The veteran wideout ran a route on only 28% of dropbacks vs Houston, which ranked fourth among Ravens’ receivers, behind Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor.
While OBJ can eclipse this low number on one catch, I’ll bet against that outcome given his limited role right now, especially since the Chiefs’ strength on defense is defending the pass.
Kansas City ranks third in defensive Pass EPA, so there’s a chance that they can slow down the Ravens passing game.
It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs are more vulnerable on the ground (28th in Rush EPA), meaning that Baltimore may lean on their running game a bit more in this one.
When you consider each of these factors, you start to realize why Beckham’s receiving yards prop is set so low. The Under looks like the right side here.
Odell Beckham Jr. Receptions Prop
Odell Beckham Jr: Under 1.5 Receptions
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
I’m going to double dip on fading Beckham by targeting another Under.
It’s a good idea to sprinkle on Under 1.5 receptions in addition to receiving yards because of the nice value at (+145) odds.
The logic here is the same with receiving yards: we’re targeting a veteran receiver with a diminished role in the offense, taking on a tough pass defense that could make it difficult to get loose downfield.
I’d recommend putting 0.5 units on this one since 1.5 receptions is such a low bar and (+145) odds reflects 40.8% implied probability.
You don’t want to be overly exposed to OBJ by putting a full unit here, so consider this as a bonus play in addition to receiving yards.
OBJ has gone Under this number in three of his last four games, so this prop has been a good one of late.
This also hedges against the possibility that Beckham has one catch downfield for 23 or more yards.
