NFL Week 7 Recap: Here are the 10 biggest NFL betting and fantasy football lessons we learned from Week 7 Sunday action.
NFL Week 7 Recap
1. Justin Herbert is a fantasy league-winner.
Justin Herbert has played five games this season, and he has scored 20 or more fantasy points in four of them. The latest outing for the Los Angeles Chargers rookie would come in a 39-29 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Herbert would shine against the Jaguars with 347 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, and 1 rushing score. It was his third game with 300+ passing yards and his third straight game with 3 or more touchdown passes.
With each start getting better than the last, Herbert has soared up the fantasy ranks and is currently 15th in quarterback scoring.
What is more impressive than his ranking is that Herbert is one of just two quarterbacks to play in just five games and still be in that top 15.
With three of the Chargers’ next five opponents ranking inside the top half in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, things will only get easier for Herbert and for those who roster him.
2. Bet the Over when the 49ers play the Seahawks in Week 8.
Injuries have been the overall theme of the San Francisco 49ers’ 2020 season, and they were only 3-4 against the Over/Under heading into week 8.
However, they have still been able to either hit or surpass their implied point totals most weeks. (They were only slightly below-average with a -1.1 average below the total, per TeamRankings.)
Take this past week as a sign of optimism; the 49ers handily defeated the New England Patriots 33-6.
Up next for the 49ers is a Seattle Seahawks team that suffered its first loss of the season to the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are no stranger to scoring points as they have scored 30 or more points in five games this season.
The former Legion of Boom is no stranger to allowing points either as they have allowed an average of 28.6 points per game.
In their two matchups last season, the 49ers and Seahawks scored a combined 98 points. While the 49ers are one of just 12 teams to allow less than 1,000 passing yards this season, it will be their first matchup against early MVP favorite Russell Wilson.
If there was a game to bet the Over on in Week 8, the 49ers and Seahawks are it.
3. Diontae Johnson reminded us of his ceiling.
Despite playing injured in a handful of games, when healthy, Diontae Johnson is one of the better fantasy options that the Pittsburgh Steelers have to offer.
That was once again made clear Week 7, when the Steelers defeated the Tennessee Titans 27-24. In this matchup, Johnsontargeted 15 times and would have 80 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. It marked Johnson’s third game of the season with double-digit targets and the first multi-touchdown game of his career.
While Johnson did suffer an ankle injury towards the end of the Steelers clash with the Titans, the Steelers pass-catcher said after the game that he would be good to go for their next matchup against the Baltimore Ravens.
From a targets standpoint, Johnson has played in five games, two of them he has played injured, and he is one target behind team leader, JuJu Smith-Schuster. Along with Chase Claypool, you spent little to no draft capital to roster Diontae Johnson. If you currently do not Johnson, do you best to acquire him because he will be one of the most consistent options moving forward.
4. Le’Veon Bell will be busy with the Chiefs.
In Week 7, Le’Veon Bell made his Kansas City Chiefs debut in a 43-16 beatdown of the Denver Broncos. With the reports prior to the game that Bell would see a fair share of the backfield of the work, his pregame Over/Under rushing yards prop of 30.5 yards seemed promising.
Regardless of that news, if you were informed prior to the game that Bell would have only 6 carries, 30.5 rushing yards might not have seemed attainable. In spite of that, thanks to Bell averaging 6 yards per carry for the first time since 2016, Bell wound up hitting in the over with 39 yards rushing.
With the anticipation that his workload will increase as he becomes more comfortable in the Chiefs scheme, moving forward, rushing-yard prop bets for Bell will be something to keep an eye out for.
They may have a higher threshold, which may prevent us from cashing out as often. Remember: Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains in the picture, and the snowy weather might’ve helped Bell get more work in Week 7.
5. Cole Beasley continues to fly under the radar.
While the Buffalo Bills 18-10 win against the New York Jets was far from pretty, Cole Beasley continued to quietly produce for those who roster him in fantasy football.
While the Monday Night Football game still needs to take place this evening, in point-per-reception formats, Beasley is entering Monday as the 11th-best wide receiver on the week. He hauled in 11 of 12 targets for 112 yards.
With that Week 7 performance, Beasley is a WR2 who has more fantasy points scored than the Buccaneers’ Mike Evans and the Rams’ Robert Woods.
His only game this season with fewer than 10 fantasy points was all the back in Week 1. Even dating back to last season, in 2019, Beasley had just five games with fewer than double-digit fantasy points scored.
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6. Cash in on Chris Godwin before Antonio Brown arrives.
One of the highlights of the late games in Week 7 was the Buccaneers putting on an offensive clinic as they defeated the Las Vegas Raiders by the score of 45-20.
So while Chris Godwin was not alone in the offensive boom, he did crush his 5.5 reception prop bet as he caught all 9 of his targets for 88 receiving yards and a touchdown — on this brilliant effort.
He’s now caught 14 of 16 targets over his past two games since returning from the sidelines.
Let’s look ahead to next week’s Monday Night Football matchup. The New York Giants have allowed 14.4 receptions per game to wide receivers. He and the Buccaneers will take on the Giants on Monday Night Football next week, and Godwin should move around and inhabit the slot just enough to avoid stout Giants cornerback James Bradberry.
The incoming Antonio Brown — another receiver who excels in the slot — is still a few weeks away from making his return to the NFL. His return will complicate Godwin’s weekly ceiling for stats.
In the meantime, however, if the Buccaneers offense continues to roll like it did last week, Godwin will be at the forefront and should be a target depending on his prop expectations.
7. Rob Gronkowski is getting his groove back.
With the Buccaneers offense playing as well as it did Sunday, it’s hard to choose just one takeaway. Another player that deserves some attention is Rob Gronkowski.
The fan-favorite tight end would celebrate National Tight End Day in style as he caught five of eight targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. Week 7 marked Gronkowski’s second straight game with 5 catches, 8 targets and a touchdown.
Considering that Gronkowski started his season with just 2 receptions across the first games, the recent trend for the former Patriot is encouraging.
He is now tied for 10th in targets among tight ends (36), and from now until the Buccaneers’ bye week in Week 13, the Buccaneers have the most favorable fantasy schedule for tight ends.
If Gronkowski is available in any of your fantasy leagues, put a claim on him now.
8. Tim Patrick is a steady part of the Broncos passing game.
The Broncos didn’t have many positive takeaways in their loss to the Chiefs. The sports betting community might’ve noticed, however, that Denver WR Tim Patrick hit receiving yards prop bet.
Entering the matchup, the Patrick Over/Under bet on his receiving yards was 43.5. As Patrick tied Jerry Jeudy in wide receiver targets this week, he would dramatically hit the Over on his yards with 44 yards receiving.
With Courtland Sutton being out for the season, Patrick will be one of Drew Lock‘s main pass-catchers. On top of this, the Broncos have a pass ratio of 55.1%. When looking for prop bets to win, it is smart to leave no stone left unturned.
9. Davante Adams looks ready to reclaim title of league’s best receiver.
In the Green Bay Packers 35-20 win over the Houston Texans this week, Davante Adams caught 13 of 16 targets for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The strong showing from Adams would propel him to the 13th-best receiver in fantasy PPR formats. Along with fellow NFC North wide receiver Justin Jefferson, Adams is one of just two wide receivers this season to have multiple games of 150+ yards receiving.
What is the most astonishing part of those numbers is that Adams has done all of that in just four games played this season. In each of the last three seasons, a different wide receiver has ended the year as the number one receiver in fantasy. As long as Adams is able to stay healthy the rest of the way, the No. 1 spot could be his for the taking.
10. The Falcons are still the cure for struggling quarterbacks.
In dramatic fashion, the Atlanta Falcons had their hearts broken, again, as they lost 23-22 to the Detroit Lions. Focusing more so on the quarterback position, Matthew Stafford continued the trend of quarterbacks having strong weeks against a below-average Falcons defense.
The passing yards prop bet entering this week was if Stafford could throw for more than 296.5 passing yards. Despite having an incredible eight-game season last year, Stafford had been failing to compile high passing totals this season. In fact, prior to this weeks game, Stafford had only eclipsed 296 passing yards once.
As previously mentioned though, the Falcons defense has been abysmal this season, and that remained true in Week 7 as the Lions quarterback threw for 340 yards.
On top of Stafford hitting his mark, the takeaway here is to continue to bet on opposing quarterbacks hitting their yardage marks against Atlanta. While only allowing 7 touchdown passes this season, the Falcons have allowed the second-most passing yards on the season, with no end in sight.
