After a short hiatus, we’re winning money again. Our prop bets from Week 12 finished 5-3 overall, which is becoming the norm around these parts.
I nailed the Colts-Bucs game, whiffed on Titans-Patriots, and split on the others. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - the weirder the NFL gets, the more I absolutely love it.
The Week 13 slate is particularly weird. Outside of a Monday Night Football Game between New England and Buffalo, which is delightful, the rest of the lineup is a mixed bag.
That’s a disclaimer essentially letting you know that one of the games below is, well, in need of some excitement.
With that, here are this week’s picks, and let’s start with that glorious disclaimer game.
NFL Week 13 Best Prop Bets
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
While the game might lack in star power, both teams do have some momentum. (Am I searching for anything here? Maybe!)
The Giants just beat the Eagles 13-7, and they’ve won two of the past three games. New York picked off Jalen Hurts three times. Hurts also completed fewer than 50 percent of his throws and passed for only 129 yards.
On the other side of the ball, QB Daniel Jones has been fine. Not spectacular. Just, fine. His availability is in question, however, due to a neck injury. That has swung the spread some.
Miami, meanwhile, has won four games in a row. It’s worth noting that three of those opponents included the Texans, Jets, and Panthers. The win over the Ravens was actually solid.
Tua Tagovailoa completed 27-of-31 throws last game, and rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle is blossoming into a star before our eyes.
It still feels like ultimately defense will likely be the story.
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Under 4.5 Total Touchdowns (-130) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Jones playing or not won’t change this bet for me one way or another. The defenses should shine.
Under 20.5 First Half Points (-120) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m doubling down on my first bet with a little first-half play. I still don’t trust the Dolphins’ offense, and I certainly don’t trust New York’s.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
While I don’t believe points will be plentiful in the game above, this matchup is a different story. If you love watching young quarterbacks thrive, this is the one for you.
In a few years, Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert could wind up being the best QB in the sport. We’ll get there, although this game is certainly meaningful for both teams.
The Bengals just destroyed the Steelers. Burrow played well, although running back Joe Mixon, who is having a superb year, really was the star of the game. After two rough losses, Cincinnati has outscored its last two opponents, 73-23.
L.A. barely beat the Steelers two weeks ago in a thriller. That win was also sandwiched between losses to the Vikings three weeks ago and the Broncos last week. While his rushing yards have seen an uptick, Herbert’s overall performances have been a bit week-to-week.
Still, I expect the Chargers to be ready for this one.
Over 5.5 Total Touchdowns (-120) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Cincinnati’s offense seems to be flourishing, and playing at home should help keep this trend pointed in the right direction. Los Angeles should also do its part.
Los Angeles Chargers Over 10.5 First-Half Points (+110) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Herbert’s been hit or miss as a sophomore, although perhaps that is a bit harsh. I’m expecting these teams to trade TDs.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Well, Lamar Jackson has played better games. After throwing four interceptions against the Browns in Sunday Night Football, that much is an understatement.
Still, the Ravens ended up winning. It wasn’t pretty or easy, but a win is a win. Baltimore also limited Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb (and Baker Mayfield) to 40 yards on 17 carries, which is exceptional.
The Steelers, as mentioned above, would like to erase what just happened against the Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger threw two picks. Najee Harris carried the ball only eight times. The defense was, well, awful.
But this game should be much more of a Pittsburgh game, and playing at home will also help a great deal. While many will likely sprint to back Baltimore, I am inclined to think that Mike Tomlin’s team finds a way to keep this close.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 First Half (-110) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Ravens aren’t exactly thriving, and Pittsburgh takes advantage at least for a half. This is a much different challenge than what last week brought.
Baltimore Ravens Under 24.5 Points (-130) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I just don’t love what I’m seeing from Baltimore, and I look for the Steelers to play a much cleaner game on defense.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Before the season began, I didn’t expect this game to be as compelling as it is. But given the Patriots’ superb recent play, one could easily argue this is one of the more intriguing games of the season.
New England has allowed more than 14 points just once in the last six games. To the surprise of no one, all of those games have been wins.
Mac Jones is coming off of one of the best starts of his young career against the Titans, and his life is made easier by the collective excellence around him.
For Buffalo, this feels like a moment. The Bills, thought to be a sizable chalk pick in the AFC East, are now in second place. A 9-6 loss to the Jaguars and a blowout loss to the Colts stand out over the past five weeks, although last Sunday’s dominating win over the Saints feels more like what we expected to see.
So, just what team will we get?
Buffalo Bills First to Score (-120) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I know the Pats are hot, but Josh Allen still exists, and we cannot forget that. Buffalo’s offense gets on the board first.
[pick id="50118]
Buffalo Bills -1 First Half (-135) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m still buying the Bills, and I think home field looms large. Look for Buffalo to get off to a hot start and the game to tighten up in the second half. (Buffalo still hangs on.)
