Week 13 NFL MVP FuturesOdds Update and Picks: Read our Week 13 NFL MVP Futures Odds and Picks to find out the top contenders, pretenders, and the best spots to wager.
All NFL MVP odds listed run courtesy of PointsBet‘s NFL lines page.
Let’s check in with the latest odds for the top player award in the NFL, with the Week 13 NFL MVP Futures.
Week 13 NFL MVP Futures
NFL MVP Frontrunners
Aaron Rodgers has already led the Packers to an 8.3 record, and while he is only the sixth-best signal-caller in passing yards to date (3093), he has thrown for the most touchdowns (33), No. 2 in adjusted yards per attempt (9.1), No. 1 in true competition percentage (83.3) and No. 1 in true passer rating (129.9) with six giveaways.
With much less to work with compared to Patrick Mahomes in terms of supporting cast, I can see Rodgers winning another MVP. He will have to finish the year strong facing the Eagles, Lions, Panthers, Titans, and Bears, perhaps winning out, but he is not too far behind Mahomes despite what Vegas suggests.
Best Bet to Win NFL MVP (For Biggest Payout)
If Derrick Henry were not playing at an MVP level, the Titans would not be in the Super Bowl conversation. In fact, they would not win eight games if I am being honest. The Titans will go as Henry goes, and Henry is going.
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Henry leads the league in rushing (1257 yards) and is the top three in total touchdowns by a running back (12). He is also averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 256 attempts and rushed for 100+ yards in seven games. Three of his 100+-yard games have come against the Colts and Ravens in his past three games. Both the Colts and Ravens employ two of the top defenses in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to enemy backs.
If the Titans are still hanging around at the end of January and Henry maintains his current level of play, he will be in the MVP conversation when it is all said and done.
At (+4000) odds, Henry may not be the surest bet, but he brings the most bang for your buck with a realistic shot at winning it.
Best Bet to Win NFL MVP (For Your Wallet)
While Derrick Henry is the best bang for your buck, Patrick Mahomes is the best bet for your wallet.
Not only has Mahomes led the Chiefs to a one-loss record up to this point, but he is also the No. 1 quarterback in passing yards (34970, No. 3 in touchdown passes (30), No. 4 in yards per attempt (8.3), No. 1 in adjusted yards per attempt (9.2), No. 2 in true completion percentage (82.7) and has even added two rushing scores.
Currently averaging 317.9 yards per game and 2.7 touchdown passes per game, Mahomes is on track to pass for 5086.4 yards and 43.2 touchdowns. He also only has three giveaways this season.
Assuming the Chiefs win 4-of-5 games down the stretch — they get the Broncos, the Dolphins in Miami, the Saints in New Orleans, the Falcons, and the Chargers to close out the year — Mahomes would easily justify another league MVP award.
You’d have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the last non-quarterback to win the AP NFL MVP honor. That was Adrian Peterson, who won it back-to-back years in 2011 and 2012.
Do you now see why I like Henry as my best bang for your buck wager?
Even going back to 2003, the only non-quarterbacks to garner the award were backs. The aforementioned Peterson along with Shaun Alexander (2005) and LaDanian Tomlinson (2006).
And they say running backs don’t matter.
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Prepare your Week 13 betting tips and plan
After you finish the NFL MVP Futures Week 13 Odds Update:
Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter.
Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation.
15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019)
| 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020)
| 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).
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