The NFL playoffs are the most wonderful time of the year for sports gamblers.
But there’s more to betting the postseason than just moneyline and against-the-spread picks. It’s also the time to cash in on player props since so many of the NFL’s best players will be showcasing their stuff for the world to see.
Today we’ll examine New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, who will make his first career postseason start against the Buffalo Bills on a sub-freezing night in Buffalo on Saturday.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 9 a.m. EST on Friday, January 14.
Mac Jones Wild Card Prop Bets
UNDER 204.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetRivers
Wager: 2 Units
Here’s a stat for you: In two games against the Bills this year, Jones has thrown for 164 passing yards combined.
Granted, he only threw three passes in one of those games due to adverse weather conditions, but Saturday is expected to bring single-digit temperatures in Buffalo — hardly ideal circumstances for throwing (or catching) a football.
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Accordingly, I expect the Patriots to go run-heavy in what will be a low-scoring, grind-it-out-game. They’re already a run-first team that ranked eighth in rushing attempts this season, and that approach led them to a 14-10 victory over the Bills in Week 13.
Jones will attempt more than three passes this time, but not enough to get to 200 passing yards against a defense that allowed just 163 passing yards per game this season — the fewest in the NFL.
Take the Under with confidence here for our NFL bet of the day.
UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-215) at BetRivers
Wager: 2 Units
Here’s another stat for you: Jones has yet to throw a touchdown pass against the Bills.
In fact, Jones just isn’t that great at throwing touchdowns. He tallied 22 TD passes in 17 games this season, averaging just 1.29 per game and registering multiple touchdowns only seven times. He doesn’t have many great red zone options who can get open near the goal line.
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Furthermore, the Bills allowed just 12 passing touchdowns all season long, which works out to 0.71 per game. As mentioned earlier, their defense is incredibly stingy against the pass.
If the Patriots are going to find the end zone, they’ll likely need to run it in.
OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-150) at BetRivers
Wager: 1 Unit
While I’m not expecting Jones to throw a ton, I still think he’ll get picked off at least once. His stellar accuracy faded a bit down the stretch, as he threw five interceptions over his final four games and completed less than 60 percent of his passes in two of those outings.
Two of those picks came against the Bills in Foxborough during Week 16, when Jones completed just 14 of his 32 pass attempts for 145 yards.
If Jones struggles with his precision again, look for Buffalo to take advantage. They ranked third in the NFL with 19 interceptions this year and are primed to take advantage of a rookie quarterback making his postseason debut on the road.
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