While Dallas has basically wrapped up the NFC East, these inter-divisional games are still interesting.
Philadelphia currently sits in the 7-seed in the NFC playoff picture. Meanwhile, Washington is two games back of that at 6-9, but could potentially sneak in the playoffs by running the table in the last two weeks.
While the Eagles have been on a tear - winning three of their last four - the Football Team has dropped three straight games. If Washington drops this one, it may be curtains for the 2021 Football Team.
WFT is catching three points at FedEx Field Sunday. That’s a fairly sharp line, and perhaps one worth playing, even if the Football Team is just 5-10 against the spread this season.
All NFL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, December 30.
Eagles vs Football Team Prediction
The Eagles have finally found an offensive identity.
The Eagles run more than any team in the NFL (51.2%). Between the threat of Jalen Hurts running the ball and an offensive line that’s third in Line Yards, the unit has found success. The Eagles are all the way up to seventh in Football Outsiders’ offense DVOA ratings, including third in their rush offense DVOA rankings.
But in terms of pure volume, nobody has rushed for more yards this season than Philadelphia (2,448). But the Eagles are doing it efficiently, leading the NFL in rush Success Rate and averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
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However, this identity plays right into the Football Team’s hands. Washington is a disaster in the secondary but decent in the front seven. Washington is eighth in total rush defense, 11th in rush defense DVOA, and sixth in PFF’s rush defense grades.
If you want to beat Washington, you have to exploit them in the passing game, where the Football Team is 30th in passing EPA per play allowed. I’m not sure Hurts and the Eagles can do that.
Unfortunately, the Washington offense can’t take advantage of anyone. The injury to Antonio Gibson has crippled this attack, and Washington has failed to score more than 20 points in five straight games.
This is setting up to be a Rock Fight. Who wins is anybody’s guess.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Football Team 14
Eagles vs Football Team Best Bets
Best Bet: Eagles -3 (-125) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
If I had to make a play on the side here, it would be with the Eagles.
There’s just too much market evidence for Philadelphia. The Eagles are getting the smart money here, as Philadelphia is seeing 78 percent of dollars with just 63 percent of the tickets as of Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are a remarkable 6-1 ATS when favored this season, whereas Washington is just 4-8 ATS as an underdog.
I’ll be keeping this play small, but give me the Eagles to somehow get across this number in our NFL pick of the day series.
Best Bet: Under 45 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
As mentioned above, neither offense can take advantage of the opposing defenses. This is setting up to be a grinder.
But late-season divisional games are always grinders. Since 2004, divisional Unders in Week 11 or later are 226-144-5, hitting at a 61% clip. That’s good for a 19% ROI during that time.
I also think this line is slightly high. While two of the last three matchups between Philadelphia and Washington have gone over the posted total, all three have stayed under 45 points.
I don’t see this game being played in the high 40s or 50s.
Tanner McGrath’s 2021 NFL Betting Record: 18-18, -1.00 Units
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