The world has changed a lot over the past few years, but one thing that hasn’t changed is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are playing in the AFC Conference Championship Game for the fourth year in a row. In the previous two years, Kansas City won the AFC and advanced to the Super Bowl.
With Mahomes, the Chiefs like to throw the football. He ranked third in the NFL in pass attempts (658) this year while Kansas City passed on 62.3 percent of its plays — the sixth-most in the league.
With so many chefs in the Chiefs’ offensive kitchen, there isn’t enough KC barbeque to go around. For Sunday’s game, the question is how many ribs will running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire have for dinner?
Let’s dig in with our best CEH player props for Kansas City’s AFC Conference Championship showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 12 p.m. ET on Friday, January 28.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Conference Championship Prop Bets
UNDER 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 0.5 Units
Edwards-Helaire is a good running back and the Bengals allow 4.4 yards per carry, which is close to the league median. So why am I fading CEH?
It’s because he won’t get the ball enough to go over any of his player props.
Cincinnati had a strong season this year, but their defense is weak against the pass. The Bengals allowed 248.3 passing yards per game this season, which was seventh-worst in the NFL. While Cincy did well last week against Ryan Tannehill, they gave up 310 passing yards against Derek Carr during the Wild Card Round.
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Mahomes is far better than both of those QBs, and Kansas City’s game plan should be to have him pass as much as possible.
While Edwards-Helaire was more involved in the offense earlier in the season, he’s seen his usage decline lately as injuries have sapped his effectiveness. He’s received single-digit carries in three consecutive games, which makes him unlikely to hit the Over in what will likely be a pass-heavy shootout between Mahomes and Joe Burrow.
With 37 or fewer rushing yards in three of his last four games, the Under is the play for our NFL bet of the day.
Check out more of our Bengals vs Chiefs Predictions
Longest Rush UNDER 11.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Wager: 1.5 Units
As much as I like the Under on CEH’s rushing yards, I like the Under on his longest rush bet even more.
There’s an obvious correlation between his number of rushing yards and his longest rush. If Edwards-Helaire gets more carries, he gets more rushing yards and has more opportunities to have a big gain. If he gets fewer carries, he’s less likely to bust loose for a big run.
- Read our full NFL Conference Championship Player Prop Bets
Over his last five games, CEH has only had one run with over 12 yards. Looking at all 11 of his games this year, he’s had just three games where he rushed for at least 12 yards on one play.
Both the short- and long-term trends strongly suggest the Under here.