It’s safe to say that the most anticipated game in Week 11 is the upcoming showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, there have been some weird outcomes in recent weeks, so hopefully we don’t get a dud from the Cowboys and Chiefs on Sunday.
Dallas comes into this contest with a 7-2 record, leading the NFC East and sitting as the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff picture. Meanwhile, Kansas City is amid a three-game winning streak after defeating the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10 to improve to 6-4 on the season.
We have a matchup of two elite quarterbacks in Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes, which is mainly why this game is so highly anticipated. Only time will tell which quarterback can lead his team to a victory on Sunday in what should be an exhilarating contest between two Super Bowl hopefuls.
Check out my best game props for this contest below to find out how I envision this game going.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 18.
Cowboys vs Chiefs Prop Bets: NFL Week 11 Prop Betting Picks
Cowboys Moneyline (+120) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
While the Chiefs have strung together three consecutive wins, it hasn’t been smooth sailing all season. Kansas City was 3-4 entering Week 8 and everyone was asking what was wrong with Mahomes.
Mahomes and the offense were making uncharacteristic mistakes as defenses began to play the Chiefs differently, limiting the number of big plays they could convert. With a middling defense (at best) and an offense that was out of sorts, Kansas City has found itself in plenty of holes this season.
A team like Dallas isn’t great to make a comeback against as the Cowboys can bleed the clock with their ball-control rushing attack. At the same time, Prescott is as efficient as they come at the quarterback position, which will prevent Mahomes from seeing the ball enough times to win the game.
The Cowboys are a talented team, and if the Chiefs come out slowly like they have in the majority of games this season, Prescott will make them pay. I’m taking Dallas here as my NFL pick of the day because I believe the Cowboys can win in either a back-and-forth shootout or a lower-scoring, possession-based contest.
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Total Points: Over 56 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
What we’re all rooting for in this contest is a high-scoring affair, right? We want to see plenty of offense from both sides in what could be one of the best games of the season thus far.
By looking at the numbers, a shootout is what we should expect from these teams, as evidenced by the total of 56 points. The Cowboys lead the NFL in scoring with 31.6 points per game, while the Chiefs rank 10th with 26.2 points per game.
- Read our full Chiefs vs Cowboys Predictions & Best Bets.
Also, both of these teams love to play at a faster pace than most, with Kansas City playing at the third-fastest pace in the league. On the other side of the field, Dallas operates its offense at the 10th-fastest pace, making this a game where both offenses will rack up plenty of plays before the final whistle blows.
Dallas and Kansas City have a combined over/under record of 10-9 this season, giving the slight edge to the over. Unless we surprisingly get a defensive battle, the Cowboys and the Chiefs should easily be able to reach the over in this one.
First Half: Cowboys Moneyline (+115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Slow starts have been a common theme for the Chiefs this season. Dallas hasn’t been fantastic at securing a lead at the midway point of games either, but this feels like a favorable game for the Cowboys to improve their halftime record to 5-5.
That being said, before playing the Daniel Jones-led New York Giants, the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers, and a turmoil-filled Las Vegas Raiders squad, the Chiefs held a lead at halftime in only two of their first seven games. While the Chiefs can only play the teams on their schedule, Kansas City hasn’t exactly lit it up consistently at the start of games.
Between the two defenses, the Chiefs have the less talented group. Kansas City ranks 27th in pass DVOA and 26th in rush DVOA, which doesn’t bode well for them against a well-rounded offense like Dallas.
The Cowboys can win in a variety of ways, whether it be throwing the ball 50 times with Prescott or pounding the ball with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. It will be interesting to see which game plan Dallas deploys on Sunday to combat Kansas City.
Regardless of what the Cowboys elect to do, I could easily see them going into halftime up on the reigning AFC champions. The Chiefs are notorious for making second-half comebacks, so I’ll give myself some room for error on my first pick if the Cowboys secure a lead at the half, but end up falling in the end.