Cowboys vs Chiefs Predictions Week 11 | NFL Pick of the Day

Last Updated: Nov 21, 2021

In a potential Super Bowl preview, the Cowboys (7-2) head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs (6-4).

While the Cowboys have (mostly) been cruising along all season, the Chiefs have had a rollercoaster 10 weeks. However, after a 41-14 drubbing of the Raiders on Sunday night, Kansas City looks to be back on track.

With each team currently sitting atop their respective division, there’s a lot of playoff positioning at state this week for both the Cowboys and Chiefs.

Let’s take a look at how Dallas and Kansas City’s recent trends will play into this matchup in our NFL pick of the day series.

Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of Friday, November 19, at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Cowboys vs Chiefs Prediction

Both teams came into the season near the top of the list of Super Bowl favorites, but until this past week, the Cowboys have been the only team that looked the part.

Dak Prescott has positioned himself as a top MVP candidate, Trevon Diggs has positioned himself as a top Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott have all looked like their dangerous selves all year long.

Outside of a Week 1 loss to the defending champion Buccaneers and a strange loss to the Broncos, Mike McCarthy‘s squad has been firing on all cylinders thus far.

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Andy Reid‘s team, however, has been a different story.

Despite still being elite players at their positions, both Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have looked strangely human more often than not this year. And while Tyreek Hill continues to do superhuman things, the Chiefs defense and running game haven’t held up their end of the bargain enough.

All of that seems to have changed in Week 10 though, as Mahomes got his groove back against the Raiders in a five-touchdown explosion. One week doesn’t make a turnaround, but Mahomes and the Chiefs look to have righted the ship at a perfect time as they head home with the wind behind their sails to face the Cowboys.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Cowboys 27

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce had one of his most productive outings of the season in Week 10, recording a season-high 119 receiving yards in Kansas City’s win over the Las Vegas Raiders. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Cowboys vs Chiefs Best Bets

Best Bet: Chiefs -2.5 (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

The Cowboys haven’t played in many close games this season. Their first two games were decided by three points or less, and everything since has been by four points or more.

Their largest loss of the season came by 14 points. Everything is bigger in Texas — or something like that.

The Chiefs haven’t played in many close games, either. They lost by one to the Ravens, but every other game they’ve played has finished with a margin of three or more (most of them being in the a lot more category).

While I think Prescott and the Cowboys will be able to keep up with the Chiefs in this one, Mahomes and Co. look like a freight train that’s going to be tough to stop at home. And I think they’ll be able to do so by more than a field goal.

Best Bet: Chiefs Moneyline (-140) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

As evidenced by my units (see above), I’m feeling a little better about the Chiefs winning outright than I am about them covering. I’d up my confidence to a full unit against the spread if the Chiefs had a better defense, but I have a nagging feeling the Cowboys will be able to keep it close.

And while I still think the Chiefs will win by more than a field goal, I feel even better about them simply winning at home as they’ve seemingly figured out how to solve the offensive woes that have been plaguing them for most of the season.

Ride with the Chiefs here and make this your NFL pick of the day.

Best Bet: Total Points Over 56 (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

We’re going to be treated to two of the top offenses in the NFL when it comes to total yardage this week (the Cowboys are first, the Chiefs fourth). And while the Chiefs only rank No. 10 in points scored per game at 27.5, the Cowboys lead the league at 31.6 points per game.

Conversely, the Cowboys rank No. 10 in points allowed per game at 21.7, while the Chiefs come in at No. 20 at 24.1 points allowed per game. I’d worry more about those numbers for the Chiefs if Mahomes hadn’t just gotten his groove back, but we might as well call him Stella at this point.

56 is a high point total, but this one is shaping up to be a barn-burner.

Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Team vs Team Betting Record: 8-5, + 4.5 Units

Thanks for reading our Cowboys vs Chiefs NFL Week 11 Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our Week 11 Best Bets.


Nick Roberts

Nick is an analyst at The Game Day who writes about the NFL and NBA from a betting perspective. He previously contributed to RotoWorld, Rotowire, and The New York Times. Nick resides in New Jersey.

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