The 2021 NFL regular season is nearing an end as teams continue to vie for playoff positioning. The Buffalo Bills haven’t clinched a playoff berth just yet, but their latest win over the New England Patriots gives them the tie-breaker in the AFC East division lead.
The Bills have their sights set on winning the AFC East two years in a row for the first time since 1990-1991, the last two years they advanced to the Super Bowl. While Buffalo is likely going to be playing in the postseason, they’ll be squaring off with an Atlanta Falcons team that is desperately fighting for one of the final playoff spots in the NFC.
Atlanta is currently 7-8 and they’ll likely need to win their final two games to earn their chance to advance to the postseason. That will be easier said than done, as the Falcons will face the Bills and the New Orleans Saints to conclude the regular season.
Continue reading below to see my Falcons vs Bills predictions, along with my favorite bets.
Skyler Carlin 2021 NFL Betting Record: 6-16-0
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 12 p.m. EST on Thursday, December 30.
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Falcons vs Bills Prediction
It’s been tough to get a gauge on how good the Bills are this season as they’ve failed to be consistent for multiple stretches. We all know how talented Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense is, but there are certain moments where they look out of sorts, which could cost them in the playoffs.
Luckily for the Bills — a team that relies on their aerial attack — they get to take on the No. 30-ranked defense in pass DVOA this week in the Falcons. Atlanta also sports the No. 26-ranked defense in rush DVOA, so Buffalo could have some success running the ball as well.
This past week, the Falcons were able to squeak out a narrow win over the Detroit Lions, proving that no opponent has been easy for them this season. As a matter of fact, the average margin of victory for Atlanta in their seven wins is only 4.7 points.
Buffalo shouldn’t have much trouble airing it out on Atlanta’s weak pass defense this week as they look to clinch a playoff spot. And with the Falcons having to play outside of a dome and potentially in less-than-ideal weather, there’s a good chance we could see a lopsided game on Sunday between the Falcons and the Bills.
Prediction: Bills 34, Falcons 13
Falcons vs Bills Best Bets
Best Bet: Bills -14.5 (-108) at TwinSpires
Wager: 1 Unit
Whenever you have a spread that exceeds two touchdowns, it’s sometimes best to side with the underdog. However, it’s hard to envision a situation where the Falcons are able to keep this week’s matchup with the Bills close in a tough environment.
Atlanta does have an impressive 5-3 record against the spread as the road team, and Buffalo is only 3-3-1 ATS at home thus far. That being said, the Bills possess a 3-1 record ATS when favored by double-digits over their opponents this season.
On top of that, Buffalo has covered the spread in nine of their last 10 matchups with teams from the NFC. There’s also the fact that Atlanta has failed to cover in five of their last seven games.
Even though the spread is a tough one to swallow, I expect the Bills to handle business at home, giving them their ninth win by at least 15 points this season.
Best Bet: Over 44 Total Points (-113) at TwinSpires
Wager: 1 Unit
Sometimes it can be risky to bet on the Over in games with lopsided spreads, but with the Bills, they’re always capable of nearly hitting the Over themselves. Buffalo’s offense is third in the NFL with 28.5 points per game, while Atlanta’s offense is the eighth-lowest scoring offense in the league with only 18.5 points per game.
So, why do I believe the Falcons and the Bills will hit the Over of 44.5 points on Sunday? In the nine wins that the Bills have earned this season, they’ve scored 30+ points in eight of them.
And with the Falcons having to play in cold weather and outside of a dome, Matt Ryan and the offense could be prone to making more mistakes in Week 17. Also, the Bills defense is third in the NFL in takeaways with 29, so there could be more possessions in store for Allen and Buffalo’s offense.
While the Under has hit in six of the last seven games for the Falcons, the Over has been achieved in five of the last seven games for the Bills. Also, the total has gone Over in six of the last eight meetings between the Falcons and the Bills.
Thank you for reading our Falcons vs Bills Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 17 Parlay Picks.