Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season is here, bringing a full slate of games and several intriguing betting opportunities. With new-look rosters, offseason additions, and potential breakout teams finally taking the field, the opening week can offer value for bettors willing to identify favorable matchups.
For our NFL best bets for Week 1, we’re focusing exclusively on point spreads. Our three picks include a road favorite, a home favorite, and a sizable underdog that we believe can keep things closer than the market expects.
Week 1 Best Bets
We’re locking in three point spread picks for Week 1. Each selection is based on the matchup, roster strengths, expected game script, and whether the current spread provides enough value.
Ravens -3.5 at Colts (-105)
Baltimore is one of my favorite sides of Week 1, especially with Jesse Minter now overseeing a defense that should be much more disciplined and aggressive. The Ravens already have plenty of talent on that side of the ball, and Minter should put them in better positions to create pressure and force mistakes.
That could be a problem for Daniel Jones in his first game back after tearing his Achilles. Even if Jones is physically ready, there could be some rust against a Ravens defense that should test him early and often. Indianapolis has also dealt with some uncertainty around Alec Pierce, who was banged up throughout training camp.
With Lamar Jackson leading the other side, Baltimore has the clear quarterback advantage and should be able to create enough separation to cover a relatively short number. I’m comfortable laying 3.5 points with the Ravens on the road.
Raiders -3 vs Dolphins (-112)
Las Vegas is another team I’m looking to back in Week 1, especially with Klint Kubiak and Rick Dennison expected to give the running game a major boost. Their track records in the run game should help the Raiders become much more efficient on the ground, and that sets up well for Ashton Jeanty in his first regular-season matchup.
Jeanty has the talent and workload to take advantage of a Dolphins defense that could have trouble holding up against a physical rushing attack. If Las Vegas can control the line of scrimmage and stay ahead of the chains, Jeanty could be in for a huge afternoon.
Miami also enters the season with one of the weaker overall rosters in the NFL, which makes it difficult to trust the Dolphins on the road. With the Raiders at home and laying only a field goal, I like their chances of controlling this game and winning by more than three.
Cardinals +9.5 at Chargers (-105)
Arizona is getting too many points in this matchup. Mike LaFleur should give the Cardinals offense a much-needed lift, and I expect them to look more creative and efficient than they did a year ago. That alone gives Arizona a better chance of keeping this game competitive.
The matchup up front is also interesting. Walter Nolen has the ability to create problems on the interior, and the Chargers are breaking in a rookie center. If Arizona can generate pressure inside and disrupt the timing of Los Angeles’ offense, that could make it difficult for the Chargers to build a comfortable lead.
The Chargers are the better team, but 9.5 points is a big number for Week 1. Arizona does not need to win outright to cash this bet, and with an improved offense plus a potential advantage along the defensive line, I like the Cardinals to stay within the number.
Tips for Betting on the NFL
- Shop around for the best lines: Even half a point can make a major difference when betting NFL spreads.
- Pay attention to injuries: Late-week injury news can significantly change a matchup and the betting line.
- Consider game script: Think about how each team is likely to play if leading or trailing.
- Don’t overreact to last season: Coaching changes, new players, and injuries can quickly change a team’s outlook.
- Monitor line movement: Significant movement can indicate injuries, sharp action, or changes in market expectations.
- Be careful with Week 1 narratives: There is more uncertainty early in the season than later in the year.
- Set a betting budget: Decide how much you’re comfortable wagering before placing any bets.
- Avoid chasing losses: Treat NFL betting as entertainment rather than a way to recover previous wagers.
