NBA Week 3 Betting Stats: Marcus Mosher brings the latest NBA Week 3 Betting Trends to know.
We are now a few weeks into the NBA season and that means we finally have some data to help us with our bets. Here is everything you need to know about betting on the NBA this week.
NBA Week 3 Betting Stats
1. The Pistons remain a great moneyline fade every night.
One of the biggest mistakes young bettors make is trying to find value every night when it comes to NBA picks. Players are always searching for long shots to win or favorable odds, and it’s not hard to see why. It’s rewarding whenever you hit on a 4-1 moneyline underdog, and that “rush" is why we keep coming back. However, the best way to build a bankroll over time is to find one or two teams and fade them whenever you get a chance. The best possible example of this over the last two seasons is the Detroit Pistons. Since the start of the 2019 season, they have won just 28 percent (21-52) of their games and most of those contests haven’t been competitive. With the Pistons continuing to lack a direction as a franchise, they are a strong team to bet against night in and night out as they don’t have the talent to compete with many of the bettor teams in the Eastern Conference. While the payout on a night to night basis isn’t great, their lack of success on the moneyline is an easy way to rack up “wins" if you decide to fade them. Until the Pistons start to show signs of life, continue to bet against them and build your bankroll.
2. The Under has been a common trend in games featuring the 76ers.
Last season, it was clear that Philadelphia had the makings to be a great defensive team. They finished inside the to -five in points allowed per game (108.6), but there were times when they still didn’t live up to their potential on that end of the court. But with a few key additions this offseason, including new head coach Doc Rivers, they’ve become a defensive juggernaut. They are currently the No. 2 ranked scoring defense in the NBA, allowing under 102 points per game. Teams are shooting only 41 percent against the 76ers, whose size and athleticism can be overwhelming. That has allowed the Under to hit in seven of their eight games this season. Don’t be surprised if that trend continues as the more this unit gels and as Rivers finds a rotation that meets his defensive standards.
3. The Bucks continue to be an Over machine.
If you followed any NBA betting trends during the 2019-2020 season, you learned pretty quickly that oddsmakers couldn’t set point totals high enough for games featuring the Milwaukee Bucks. With their high-powered offense, the team was a lock to score 120 points a night and could easily score 130-140 depending on their three-point shooting. That resulted in a ton of Overs hitting and that is once again the case this season. While the sample size is small (seven games), the over has already hit five times in games involving the Bucks. Milwaukee has the No. 1 ranked scoring offense, averaging nearly 125 points per game. They also lead the NBA in field goal percentage as well as three-point percentage. It will be fascinating to see if oddsmakers eventually catch up or if the Bucks slow down on offense any time soon. But as of right now, keep betting on the over and watch the money roll in.
4. The Raptors are no longer profitable to bet on.
Over the last few seasons, the Raptors were among the most fun teams to bet on in the NBA. Despite losing Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green in the offseason, the 2019-2020 Raptors were an incredible 46-36-1 against the spread (including the playoffs). Their overall record in those games was 60-23 as they routinely upset teams that were far more talented than them and head coach Nick Nurse always had his team playing above their heads. But so far this season, that’s not the case at all. They are just 1-5 on the season and against the spread. Their only win of the year came against the New York Knicks in a 17-point blowout. Otherwise, this is a team that hasn’t been profitable at all this year. Their most significant issue is a lack of offensive firepower as they are averaging just 106 points per game (fifth-worst in the NBA). While they certainly have time to turn things around, this is a team that is struggling in a significant way. Avoid betting on the Raptors at all until they string together a few good weeks. They are a team that just can’t be trusted right now.
5. The Golden State Warriors might be fools gold.
For a half-decade, the Warriors were the most fun team to bet on in the NBA. Not only were they a dominant team that rarely took a night off, but their style of play was a joy to watch. With shooting all over the floor and an elite defense, this team often made fourth quarters completely meaningless. But after a rough 2019-2020 season, that “fun" went away as the Warriors turned into one of the worst teams in the NBA. They were suddenly the team that was getting blown out night after night and rarely were their games competitive.
The start of this season appeared to be trending in that same direction after disappointing losses to the Nets and Bucks. But the Warriors have seemed to turn things around over the last two weeks, winning four of their previous five games. While bettors might be getting the itch again to blindly back Stephen Curry and the Warriors, there are some concerning warning signs. The biggest is their defense, which currently ranks dead-last in the NBA. They are allowing 121 points per game this season and without Klay Thompson, they don’t the wing defenders or enough size to keep teams away from the rim. While the offense is improving, the defense is just so bad that it’s hard to believe they will be able to keep up with any playoff-caliber team. Consider staying away or fading the Warriors until their defense improves drastically.View this post on Instagram
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