Michael Rathburn returns with your May 5 MLB Prop Bet Tips for 5/5/21 MLB Prop Bets. All odds were obtained from BetMGM, who offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.
Our friends at PointsBet are offering new customers 2 Risk-Free Bets for up to $2,000. Sign up today!
May 5 MLB Prop Bet Tips
Chase Anderson, SP, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Over 4.5 strikeouts (-160)
Wager: 1.5 units
One of the ways to find value in betting MLB props is to find a lineup with at least one top hitter out. In the case of the Milwaukee Brewers, Christian Yelich is back on the IL. I have been picking on the Brewers with strikeout props recently with a lot of success. Their lineup projects as one of the worst in baseball right now and even though Chase Anderson is not a great pitcher, I will still bet against the Brewers.
The Brewers have a 27.6% strikeout rate on the season. Some of that was boosted by Keston Hiura who got sent to their alternate site, but the lineup lacks any punch.
Anderson got six strikeouts in 5 innings against the Mets in his last start, so we know he is capable. His other starts this year include at the Rockies, Giants, and Mets two more times. I will throw out the start at Coors. The rest of his starts are around 4 to 5 innings per start and close to one k per inning.
The Brewers have two hitters that can hurt Anderson in Travis Shaw and Kolten Wong. But when Daniel Vogelbach is your 3 hitter it is pretty bad. Anderson should be able to do a lot of damage against the 6-7-8-9 part of this lineup. All we need is for him to get through this lineup twice.
Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Under 9.5 strikeouts (-155)
Wager: 1.5 units
Bieber has the highest strikeout prop on the board today with 9.5, and he struck out 12 Royals on April 7 in 6.1 innings. Normally this would be a pass, but the Royals are one of the hardest teams to strike out in baseball. Also, in 28 games this year the Royals have exceeded 10 strikeouts in 25% of their games.
I just have a hard time thinking Bieber gets the Royals for double-digit strikeouts again. If you look at games from April 13 to May 4 they have only struck out more than 9 times twice (10%). They have the lowest strikeout rate (18%) in that time frame.
Another factor in this is the opposing pitcher Brady Singer. If this game is close in the 6th or 7th inning, we could see Bieber get pulled for a pinch hitter making his under 9.5 strikeout prop even more attractive.
After reading May 5 MLB Prop Bet Tips and 5/5/21 MLB Player Prop Bets, make your MLB bets for May 5.