Here’s your May 5 MLB Bet Pick for 5/5/21 MLB Bets. All odds for May 5 MLB Picks were obtained from BetMGM, who offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.
It’s my debut for The Game Day! For those who don’t know me, I’m Jason Radowitz. I’ve been sports betting for years via my analytical background. I’m a numbers guy and that certainly helps when betting baseball. It’s mono-y-mono at the plate.
As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz
Starting with my 5/5/21 MLB bet tips, I’ll track my success to keep things honest. Let’s go!
May 5 MLB Bet Tips
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET)
Probable Pitchers: LHP Max Fried (ATL) vs. RHP Erick Fedde (WSN)
Nationals Over 3.5 Runs Scored (-120)
Wager: 1.2 units (win would pay 1 unit)
It’s been a while since Max Fried has pitched this season. Fried will take the mound for the first time since April 13, when he allowed nine hits, eight runs, even earned runs and two home runs.
Last season, Fried was a serious 2020 NL Cy Young candidate. This year, he’s been absolutely dreadful for the Braves, allowing 23 hits and 15 runs in 11 innings pitched this season. He started off the season hot with eight strikeouts in five innings, but that dipped along with his performance, getting just six strikeouts in his last six innings.
Fried will take on the Nationals, who have hit lefties well this season. The Nationals are hitting .300 against lefties with 35 runs batted in and this is without their all-star in Juan Soto in the middle of the lineup. Washington was third in the league last year in batting average against lefties and they’ve started 2021 right where they left off against lefties.
Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Ryan Zimmerman, Starlin Castro, Kyle Schwarber and even Victor Robles have high weighted on base averages (wOBAs) against lefties this season in a small sample size.
For example, Turner is hitting .500 in 24 at-bats this season with three home runs and 12 hits against lefties. Castro is batting .417, Harrison is batting .400, Zimmerman is batting .391, Schwarber is batting .285 and even Victor Robles is batting .294 against lefties this season.
The Nationals are the home team so they’re not guaranteed nine innings but with Erick Fedde on the mound, there’s potential the Braves also hit their team total and score five runs. If that were the case, the Nationals would either get an extra inning to bat or already reach their team total before that point.
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)
Probable Pitchers: RHP Luis Garcia (HOU) vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (NYY)
Astros First Five Innings (+110)
Wager: 0.9 units (win would pay 1 unit)
The entire public is going to be on the Yankees. New York and their fanbase just embarrassed the Astros in the first game of the series. It was the first game the Astros and Yankees had played since the Astros’ “trash cans" cheating scandal.
Anyway, Luis Garcia will take the hill for the Astros. He’s had an interesting start to the season, allowing six runs and 14 hits in 20 innings this season. He’s struggled against lefties this season, allowing a .373 wOBA and has also allowed most of the power against him from lefties.
However, the Yankees have just two lefties in the lineup, and Rougned Odor isn’t even able to play after a collision at home plate last night. Against righties, Garcia has pitched way better as he’s limited walks, has a higher strikeout rate, and is keeping power yielded to a minimum.
If Garcia is facing seven or eight righties, I have confidence he’ll be able to pitch well for the first five innings of the game.
On the other hand, Jordan Montgomery will take the hill for the Yankees. He’s struggled against right-handed batters, allowing a weighted on-base average of .330 with most power coming from the right side, as he’s a left-handed pitcher.
The Astros have always been good against righties and this season is no different. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel and even Jose Altuve have high weighted on base averages against lefties this season. Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez have had success against lefties as well this season but, again, Montgomery has performed well against lefties to begin the season.
The Astros have way more advantages in this game and are still the underdog. I know the fans can make a difference and all, but taking the Astros in this spot in the first five innings just makes too much sense.
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