Here’s your May 18 MLB Bet Picks for 5/18/21 MLB Bets. All odds for May 18 MLB Picks were obtained from BetMGM, who offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.
I’m 8-2 since starting with The Game Day. I guess my article slot for Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday is working because, to be fair, I’ve lost on days I haven’t had to write articles. Currently, I must say, I’m excited to write for The Game Day today so I can win some more bets.
As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card, on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz. Now, here are tips for my 5/18/21 MLB Bets.
- Overall: 8-2
- Team Totals: 4-1
- First 5 IP Bets: 3-0
- Moneylines: 1-1
May 18 MLB Bet Tips
Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs (7:40 p.m. ET)
- Nationals @ Cubs 5/18 Matchup Preview
- Probable Pitchers: LHP Patrick Corbin (WSN) vs. RHP Zach Davies (CHI)
Cubs to win (-105)
Wager: 1.05 units (win would pay 1 unit)
Zach Davies of the Chicago Cubs had a brutal April. But it’s clear to say that he is a new pitcher in May. He’s gone 16.1 innings pitched and has induced 29 ground balls to just 22 flyballs. On top of that, he’s allowed just three runs in his last three starts, against the Indians, Pirates, and Reds.
Davies had been walking a high amount of batters on the season. But through the last two starts and 12.1 innings, he has walked just three batters with five strikeouts.
Conversely, the Nationals have struggled working walks. The projected lineup walks 7.8 percent of the time against righties while Davies has walked 12.6 percent of batters. The Nationals aren’t patient, and as we know from other losses I’ve shared, struggle to hit with runners in scoring position, especially against righties. If Davies allows a walk or two, a ground ball double play is a real possibility as he’s getting 50 percent ground balls on both sides of the plate.
On the other hand, the Nationals will send out left-hander, Patrick Corbin, who, to put it nicely, has been awful against righties, as a left-handed pitcher. He’s allowing a .385 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and plenty of extra-base hits. The extra base hits continue to rise because he’s allowing about 50 percent of hard contact to righties this season.
The Cubs right-handed bats have had success against lefties this season and even put away Clayton Kershaw early a couple weeks ago, where Kershaw, a left-handed pitcher, couldn’t even get through an inning.
Kris Bryant has been the best hitter against lefties this season, batting .371 with a .450 on-base percentage (OBP) against lefties. Ten of his 13 hits against lefties have been for extra bases. Not only is Bryant smacking lefties, but he’s also smacking Corbin for his career.
Bryant is batting 5-11 against Corbin (.455 average) with a double and two walks along with an OBP of .500. Ian Happ, a switch-hitter that will bat righty, is batting .429 with a double and a home run against Corbin. Javier Baez is batting .357 with two home runs and five hits. Matt Duffy has a .333 OBP against Corbin.
Plus, the only projected left-handed bat in the lineup, Anthony Rizzo, has a .353 OBP along with a home run and five RBIs against Corbin.
The Cubs are throwing out a squad full of righties against a lefty that struggles badly against right-handed batters and I’m here for it.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (10:10 p.m. ET)
- Probable Pitchers: LHP Austin Gomber (COL) vs. LHP Black Snell (SDP)
Colorado Rockies Over 2.5 Runs Scored (-110)
Wager: 1.10 units (win would pay 1 unit)
The Rockies are a huge underdog in this game. I get it. The public loves Blake Snell. He was a beast in the World Series. But he’s not a beast for the Padres. Snell has been maybe slightly above average.
With a team total sitting at 2.5 at (-110) you would think Snell has been a straight-up 2021 NL Cy Young Award candidate early on. But that’s not the case. Instead he’s sporting a 4.19 ERA and has just one win on the year. The left-hander has allowed two or more runs in seven of eight starts this season and just allowed two runs in four innings to the Rockies last week. In that start, he allowed three walks, five hits, two runs, one home run and struck out five in a double-header, seven-inning game.
Snell threw 84 pitches in just four innings of work.
Currently, through 121 right-handed batters, Snell has allowed a .376 wOBA to righties and has struggled much more against lefties than righties. He’s walking righties over 16 percent of the time and his strikeouts are much lower when facing right-handed batters compared to facing lefties. The Rockies will send out a full lineup of only right-handed bats against Snell.
The Rockies are third in average against lefties this season, hitting .281. The Red Sox bat .282 against lefties and White Sox bat .301. But the Rockies hit .281 against lefties, which is better than the likes of Houston, St. Louis, and Washington.
The lineup has some gems against lefties like Garrett Hampson, who is has a .506 wOBA with low strikeouts and high walks. Connor Joe, the No. 2 hitter, has a wOBA of .390 and is walking at a solid rate against lefties through eight plate appearances. Trevor Story has a .356 wOBA against lefties.
Plus, it looks like C.J. Cron will likely be activated off the injured list Tuesday. He’ll be a crucial bat against Snell as he’s batting a .455 wOBA against lefties.
Even if it’s a tight game and the score is 2-2 and we go to extras, the Rockies would have a guy on second with no outs in the 10th to score that third run. There’s going to be plenty of opportunities to score three runs against Snell.
They’ll get the job done as one of the sneakier 5/18/21 MLB bets. It’s hard to get shut out twice in a row in the MLB.
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