I placed a bet on Matthew Stafford to win the 2021 NFL MVP at 14-1 (+1400) this week.
In hindsight, that was a bad bet and I already regret it despite believing that Stafford will win the award.
It’s not a bad bet because I don’t believe in it. It’s a bad bet because I didn’t shop around for better odds at The Game Day’s preferred sportsbooks.
- Read Marcus Mosher’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft Round 1, 2021 NFL Mock Draft Round 2, and 2021 NFL Mock Draft Round 3.
Admittedly, I placed the bet on a sportsbook that I was currently using, playing some online blackjack. I eventually wandered over to the MVP odds and saw the Stafford line and bet it. I had been thinking about betting on Stafford for a while now to take home the award and decided it was time to place the bet.
My mistake was not searching for better odds.
Currently, his odds sit at +1600 on PointsBet to win the award. (Use PointsBet’s welcome offer of 2 Risk-Free Bets of up to $2000 to place this 2021 NFL Futures bet on Matthew Stafford.)
On a $1,000 bet, I just threw away $2,000 (potential) dollars because I didn’t take the time to search for the best odds.
Please, learn from my mistake and always shop for the best line.
Anyway, back to Stafford. I think he is in a great position to take home the award and here are the three reasons I made the bet.
Matthew Stafford 2021 NFL MVP Award Bet
1. He’s a quarterback. A quarterback has won the NFL MVP Award in 13 of the past 14 seasons.
The only exception was RB Adrian Peterson, who won in 2012 after totaling 2,097 rushing yards.
Being a quarterback alone gives Stafford a good shot at winning the award. It also helps that he is a very *good* quarterback and if he has a usual Matthew Stafford-like season on a good team, he will be in consideration.
2. Stafford is playing on a great team with Super Bowl aspirations.
The Rams currently had the third-best odds to win the NFC Championship (+650), just behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers.
We know that it’s very rare for an MVP-winner to be on a non-playoff team, and most of the time, the MVP is awarded to a player on one of the best two teams in each conference. Considering that the Rams have averaged 10.75 wins per season under Sean McVay, it seems likely that Los Angeles will be in contention again.
3. Stafford will be surrounded by the best supporting cast of his career.
While he won’t be playing with Calvin Johnson, LA’s offensive line, weapons, and coaching staff around him have never been better.
Experienced wide receivers Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp lead the way alongside deep-threat veteran DeSean Jackson; talented tight end Tyler Higbee is a breakout threat; and a steadier diet of running back Cam Akers could take this offense to the next level.
Stafford will play in a scheme that will create easy throws and allow him to dominate on play-action passes. He is a significant upgrade over Jared Goff, who threw 82 touchdowns from 2017-2019. If Stafford can stay healthy, 40+ touchdowns and 4,800 passing yards are certainly in reach.
Things could get off to a slow start for Stafford and the Rams, given their new relationship, but I don’t anticipate that being the case. Instead, look for him to add life into an offense that desperately needs it. Don’t be surprised if the Rams look like a new and much better version of themselves with an elite signal-caller under center.
If you want to fade Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in MVP futures bets, Stafford appears to be the best value on the board.