Championship weekend in the NFL is here, and while the main attention is on the AFC, the NFC Championship game may have the most fireworks. The Detroit Lions look to punch their first ticket to the Super Bowl in a road clash against the San Francisco 49ers.
Despite the known prowess of both defenses, their name value has superseded their level of play the back half of the 2023 season. That means this game may be ripe for points, which means a larger assortment of props to consider. The 49ers and Lions have top talents on offense with schemes that promote production.
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Lions vs. 49ers NFC Championship Player Props
David Montgomery: Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-115)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
If there was ever a time to #EstablishIt on the ground, it’s this week for Detroit. Montgomery is not elusive, but his ability to break tackles is difficult to quantify with how important it is for the Lions to keep their defense off the field.
Monty hasn’t averaged 5.0 yards per carry since Week 15, but he has at least 11 carries in 4 of those 6 games.
The 49ers defense has faced the fewest rushing attempts per game this season (22.1) in part due to them leading as games go on. As long as this game remains close (think one-score game), this wager is live. The 49ers are middle-of-the-pack in yards per rush (4.1), and in recent weeks opposing offenses have still ran the ball, effective or not.
Montgomery will compete with Jahmyr Gibbs for touches, but 22-28 carries split 50/50 is in play, which covers this bet.
Sam LaPorta: Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards (-115)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Betting a tight end prop against the 49ers is never comfortable, but I like where LaPorta is despite the knee injury and what elite tight ends have done against the 9ers.
San Francisco has allowed 10-plus receiving games to T.J. Hockenson and Trey McBride, as well as six catch effort from Zach Ertz the first time the Cardinals and 49ers played. If a team like Arizona with little receiving depth can still game script two tight ends to big performances, why not the best rookie tight end (statistically) in NFL history?
17.5 receiving yards is a a number LaPorta has topped 11 times as his long for a game. He also had 8, 20-plus yard receptions, and 2 more of 40 or longer.
Lions vs. 49ers NFC Championship Team Props
Any Quarter to End Scoreless: Yes (+480)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
Two of the best offensive minds in the NFL are squaring off in the NFC Championship, so why take this bet?
The Lions had a scoreless quarter Week 17 in Dallas. The second quarter finished 0-0 in a 20-19 win for the Cowboys. The 49ers didn’t have any scoreless quarters, but there were numerous 3-0 quarter scores.
I’ll take a chance on one quarter, four chances, to get these odds.
Any Team to Score 30 Points: No (+140)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This bet works in conjunction with the previous option, even though the first does not guarantee the second.
San Francisco is only 10-9 in hitting this over. I say “only" because the 49ers averaged 28.6 points per game. It has been over one month since they have topped 30 points.
Detroit also went 10-9 in hitting this prop. They scored 31 last week, and have topped this prop 4 times in their last 6. I believe their offensive line injuries could force more issues on offense than they have had the past two months.
It’s the playoffs, and points tend to be at a premium.
